2019 Better Than Chalk Section Predictions

Its March and that means playoff time.  Section play in the metro starts on Monday so let's do our annual predictions.  The goal is to do better than just picking the high seeds.  We'll do these in order of small schools to big schools

Section 2A
Lester Prairie/Holy Trinity opens on Monday at Mayer Lutheran in a 3 vs 6 game.  Mayer Lutheran played without forward Baden Noennig on Friday in a loss at Blake.  These teams met in January in Lester Prairie with Mayer Lutheran winning by 7.  Leading scorer for Mayer Lutheran from that game didn't play on Friday either. I think Mayer Lutheran has their hands full but they barely survive and advance.

Section 4A
This is where I will win or lose the competition.  Once again section 4A goes to a system of tiered byes.  The top 4 seeds automatically advance 3 rounds to the quarters on Saturday.  Seeds 5 thru 8 don't start until Thursday.  Seeds 9 thru 11 skip the opening round. The bottom 10 open on Monday.

Round 1 (Monday 3/4):
17 Kaleidoscope at 16 Groves
20 Metro Schools College Prep at 13 Bethany
21 Lincoln Intl at 12 MTS
19 Hmong at 14 Lakes International
18 Community of Peace at 15 Mounds Park Academy

My rule for these pigtail type games is to always pick chalk and I will do that here.  Kaleidoscope lost at Groves by 9 in mid December.  That was despite 27 and 15 from their top player Jacob Donnett.  Larry Mohammed with 22 for Groves in that game.  I expect it to be close and I'll see it in person.  Bethany vs Metro Schools College Prep I think will be closer than the seed line indicates but Bethany survives at home.  MTS blew out Lincoln twice in the regular season, I see that happening again.  Hmong Academy lost by 2 at LILA in January, expect another close one there but I'll take home court.  At home, Mounds Park Academy beat COPA by 14 3 weeks ago.  Yahya Madar is the most difficult matchup in the section.  He helped lead a big run to the section final last year.  MPA advances.

Round 2 (Tuiesday 3/5)
16 Groves at 9 Heritage
13 Bethany at 12 MTS
14 LILA at 11 Hope Academy
15 Mounds Park Academy at 10 North Lakes

I take Heritage over Groves.  MTS beat Bethany big twice in the regular season, expect that again.  MTS too athletic and too much offensive firepower.  Too much Caleb Hoilien for Hope, they'll advance without trouble over LILA.  Cole Donelan will help North Lakes hang around but there's no matchup for Madar. Give me the upset here for MPA.

Round 3 (Thursday 3/7)
9 Heritage vs 8 Chesterton (at Groves)
12 MTS at 5 Hiawatha
11 Hope at 6 Legacy
15 Mounds Park Academy at 7 Christian Life

Oh I love the upsets here and this round is make or break for the picks.  Heritage takes out Chesterton.  A high scoring entertaining affair between MTS and Hiawatha.  But Hiawatha is young so give ME MTS here.  Hope lost at home to Legacy on a buzzer beater early in the year.  They get revenge on the road.  Mounds Park upset Christian Life last year during their Cinderella run and it happens again here.

Quarterfinals (Sat 3/9)
9 Heritage at 1 CHOF
12 MTS at 4 West Lutheran
11 Hope at 3 Liberty
15 Mounds Park Academy at 2 Avail Academy

CHOF won big at Heritage 2 weeks ago, they'll advance again.  West Lutheran beat MTS by 9 in the Avail tourney over the holidays.  They'll get a challenge but ultimately survive.  Liberty's 2-3 extended zone will bother Hope to start but give me the upset here.  Caleb Hoilien with a big game there and too much quickness from Hope will force turnovers.  Toughest game to for me to pick is the last one and why not do it again.  To beat the drum, there's no matchup for Yahya Madar.

Semis: (Tues 3/12)
4 West Lutheran at 1 CHOF
15 Mounds Park Academy at 11 Hope

CHOF beat West Lutheran big in the last couple of weeks.  I love the Troy Kokkinen vs McCaleb Alleman matchup.  Lions advance.  As to the other game, its a new Cinderella story this season.  Hope advances at home in the final game in their gym. Hope too good at the guard spots.  Madar vs Hoilien features 2 of the best players in the section.

Final (Fri 3/15 at Anoka-Ramsey)
11 Hope vs 1 CHOF.  CHOF won the regular season meeting at home by 17 in early February.  This meeting is closer but CHOF moves on to state.

Section 4AA
Same idea in 4AA with the tiered byes.  AFSA not playing the tourney series so only 15 teams.

Round 1 (Tues 3/5)
13 Twin Cities Academy/Great River at 12 Nova Classical
14 St. Paul Washington at 11 New Life
15 Math and Science at 10 St. Agnes

Nova finished 2 games better in TCAC D1 but the teams split their 2 regular season meetings with home wins.  That includes an 11 point TCA win 2 weeks ago.  TCA with more firepower and they win again.  Akepevwe  Akwunuma will be too much inside.  New Life beat Washington just before Christmas and I see it happening again despite a big game from PG Zaveon Smith.  St. Agnes no problems with Math and Science.

Round 2 (Th 3/7)
9 Concordia at 8 Humboldt
13 Twin Cities Academy at 5 Trinity
11 New Life at 6 St. Paul Academy
10 St. Agnes at 7 St. Paul Prep/HSRA

Concordia pulls the upset at Humboldt as I see Humboldt having difficulty generating enough offense.  Trinity takes out a game TCA/GR squad.   St. Agnes avenges a 1 point loss to HSRA.  New Life just beat SPA by 9 to end the regular season.  SPA tries to return the favor at home but I'll take an upset here.

Quarterfinals (Sat 3/9)
9 Concordia at 1 Minnehaha
5 Trinity at 4 Minneapolis Edison
11 New Life vs 3 Cristo Rey at Minneapolis Washburn
10 St. Agnes at 2 St. Croix Prep

Minnehaha overwhelms Concordia.  Trinity knocks off Edison.  Cristo Rey takes out New Life.  Sst. Croix Prep too much firepower for St. Agnes.

Semis (Tues 3/12)
5 Trinity at 1 Minnehaha
3 Cristo Rey at 2 St. Croix Prep

Minnehaha no problems advancing.  St. Croix Prep gets a rematch of a 3 point home loss from a couple weeks ago.  But note that's the game where James Sommer got hurt for CRJ.  He hasn't played since but you know he'll want to come back for this one.  Lots of guard play here in a very entertaining game.  I'll take St. Croix Prep to get revenge in a tight one.

Final (Fri 3/15 at St. Paul Washington)
2 St. Croix Prep vs 1 Minnehaha
Jalen Suggs continues his great play.  No solution for Chet Holmgren.  Minnehaha wins.

Section 5AA
Th 3/7 at High Seeds, Sat 3/9 and Tues 3/12 at STMA, Fri 3/15 at SCSU

9 Blake at 8 Brooklyn Center  (winner vs 1 Minneapolis North)
13 PACT at 4 Litchfield
12 Watertown-Mayer at 5 Holy Family
14 ISM/ERA vs 3 Maranatha at Osseo
11 SW Christian at  6 Providence
10 HLWW at 7 Rockford (winner vs 2 Breck)

Lots of young guard play on display in that 8 vs 9 game.  Blake with their 3 soph guards and BC with their entire lineup of youth.  I like what Blake runs and BC doesn't defend well.  Give me Blake here.  Litchfield no problems with PACT.  Holy Family wins a rematch with Watertown-Mayer.  MCA big over International School.  Providence gets another home win over SW Christian.  Rockford blew out Howard Lake in their season opener.  Rockford advances.

North blows out Blake.  Maranatha knocks off Providence in a rematch of a 10 pt regular season game.  Breck no problems with Rockford but Roddy going at the 7 foot Calvin Sisk is something to see.  Best game of Saturday at St. Michael is the Holy Family vs Litchfield matchup.  Litchfield in a tight one.  North then takes out Litchfield and Breck over Maranatha in the semis.  Maranatha with lots of guys to throw at David Roddy in that fun semifinal.  North then takes out Breck for a trip to state.

Section 1AAA
5 Red Wing at 4 Simley (Wed 3/6).  Simley advances with no problem but then gets bounced by Austin on Saturday afternoon in Rochester.

Section 3AAA
Tues 3/5, Fri 3/8 at High Seeds, Final Th 3/14 at Bloomington Jefferson
8 South St. Paul at 1 Holy Angels
5 Richfield at 4 St. Croix Lutheran
7 St. Paul Highland Park at 2 St. Thomas Academy
6 Bloomington Kennedy at 3 St. Paul Harding

Holy Angels and St. Thomas Academy advance without issue.  Harding holds off Kennedy at home.  Richfield won a tight one at St. Croix Lutheran right after the new year.  They have 2 wins since.  SCL gets the revenge win at home.

In the semis, Holy Angels survives and advances.  St. Thomas Academy no issues in their semifinal.  Holy Angels with a nice matchup of defensive guards vs St. Thomas Academy in the final.  Charles Johnson guarding Jack Thompson is a fun matchup to see.  I can't pick all top seeds to win titles so give me St. Thomas Academy here.

Section 4AAA
Wed 3/6 High Seeds, Sat 3/9 and Th 3/14 at St. Paul Washington
8 Hill-Murray at 1 Mahtomedi
5 Columbia Heights at 4 St. Anthony
7 Como Park at 2 Totino-Grace
6 Fridley at 3 St. Paul Johnson

Mahtomedi and Totino-Grace no issues in round 1.  St. Anthony beat Columbia Heights by 15 in their meeting in early February.  Huskies advance again but this time its closer.  Fridley has won 3 straight after losing 7 in a row.  Johnson is not the Johnson of years gone by and has not been good in this calendar year.  They have a loss and OT win over a Harding team that Fridley beat easily.  Give me Fridley here in an entertaining up and down game.  In the next rounds, Mahtomedi beat St. Anthony by 30 in the regular season.  I see another easy win in the semis.  Totino-Grace takes out neighbor Fridley in the semi.  Mahtomedi then takes out Totino-Grace in the finals.

Section 6AAA
Tues 3/5 and Sat 3/9 High Seed, Th 3/14 Final at Chanhassen
8 Minneapolis Roosevelt at 1 De La Salle
5 Minneapolis Henry at 4 Mound-Westonka
6 Orono at 3 Waconia
7 Benilde-St. Margaret's at 2 Robbinsdale Cooper

De La Salle no problems with Roosevelt in round 1.  Henry lost by 1 at Mound-Westonka at the start of February.  I'll take Mound-Westonka here in a tight game.  Tough draw for Waconia who just lost to Orono at home by 8 on Friday.  Waconia won the 1st meeting by 6 at the end of January.  Expect another tight game.  Orono has lost a bunch of tight game and both have played tough schedules.  Game is a coin flip so I'll take home court advantage.  Tough draw for Cooper as well as these teams also split.  Double digit wins on home court for each team.  Game is at home so Cooper wins.

Cooper being at home is big in the semis.  But Waconia's discipline and Cooper's lack of defense makes the difference here.  Waconia advances.  De La Salle advances in the semis with home court.  In the final, Waconia nothing to scare De La Salle with so De La Salle moves on to try to reclaim the AAA state title.

Section 1AAAA
Wed 3/6 High Seeds, Sat 3/9 and Fri 3/15 Rochester
8 Owatonna at 1 Lakeville North
5 Farmington at 4 Lakeville South
6 Rochester Mayo at 3 New Prague
7 Rochester Century at 2 Rochester John Marshall

Top 2 seeds no issues.  Lakeville South and Farmington tied at 9-9 in the South Suburban but Lakeville South won both meetings 56-53.  Expect another tight game but I'll go with the old idea that its hard to beat a team 3 times.  Give me Farmington.  The 3 vs 6 game is one of the more fascinating games on the schedule.  You have a defensive minded New Prague squad vs a high powered offense but last in points allowed squad in Rochester Mayo. Hunter Nielsen and Tyler Kemp will have their hands full guarding the Madsen twins.  New Prague ran the table in the Wright County East but lost to Lakeville South and Farmington.  But Mayo has lost 5 out of 6 including a terrible loss to Albert Lea.  New Prague survives here.  (Czar's Note: New Prague actually beat Lakeville South and Farmington)

Can we just play the Lakeville North vs Farmington game at Lakeville South or Apple Valley to save everybody the trip to Rochester?  Lakeville North and JM advance in the semis so they can meet again in the final.  Expect another sold out crowd for a dynamite matchup of Tyler Wahl vs Matt Hurt.  But Wahl has far more help and Lakeville North moves on again.

Section 2AAAA
Wed 3/6 High Seeds, Sat 3/9 and Fri 3/15 Highest Seed
8 Bloomington Jefferson at 1 Prior Lake
5 Chaska at 4 Shakopee
6 Chanhassen at 3 Edina
7 Minnetonka at 2 Eden Prairie

Boom goes the dynamite here.  Wow is this section loaded.  Prior Lake won by 25 at Jefferson and have no problems in the rematch unless Jefferson bores them to death.  Eden Prairie got a great draw moving up to 2.  I can't justify that seed at all based on their body of work but the coaches went with the eye test.  By that standard, this seed makes perfect sense.  They blew out Tonka twice and will win again to advance.  Edina gets a tough test from Chanhassen but survives at home.  The 4 vs 5 game is the best one on the board.  Chaska held off a late rally to win at Shako by 3 in mid December.  Charlie Katona vs Cole Nicholson is a very good matchup.  Hawks have won 17 out of 18.  Shakopee's only losses besides that Chaska loss are to Prior Lake and Lakeville North in South Suburban play.  Chaska advances again.

That sets up a pair of high quality semifinals.  Prior Lake takes out Chaska with too much size.  Edina and Eden Prairie play a rubber match to advance.  Eden Prairie now has everybody healthy so I'll pick them to win a tight one.  But their lack of size is too much to overcome in the finals.  Prior Lake moves on to state.  That's all assuming Dawson Garcia is back for the semis and final.  If he's out, Prior Lake doesn't get thru that championship game.

Section 3AAAA
Tues 3/5 and Fri 3/8 High Seeds, Th 3/14 final at Farmington
8 Henry Sibley at 1 Eastview
5 Apple Valley at 4 Park
6 Hastings at 3 Eagan
7 Rosemount at 2 Burnsville

Eastview takes out Sibley.  Burnsville won both meetings with Rosemount big including by 24 at Rosemount.  Burnsville advances.  Size vs Shooting in the Hastings vs Eagan game.  Eagan won the regular season meeting at Hastings by 4.  Eagan advances.  Apple Valley vs Park is very interesting.  But Apple Valley has won only 2 games all calendar year (both over Rosemount) and struggles to score.  I'll take Park to advance in a close one with too much Charlie Gorres.

Eastview then takes out Park.  Burnsville beat Eagan twice in the regular season.  Eagan has lost 11 of 13 give me Burnsville here.  Burnsville and Eastview split their 2 meetings with Burnsville winning at home by 4 on Friday and losing by 2 at Eastview in early February.  Expect a tight final with Eastview hanging on to advance.  Too much Steven Crowl in that one.

Section 4AAAA
Wed 3/6 High Seeds, Sat 3/9 and Th 3/14 at Hastings
8 Woodbury at 1 East Ridge
5 St. Paul Central at 4 White Bear Lake
6 North St. Paul at 3 Tartan
7 Stillwater at 2 Cretin-Derham Hall

A couple of rivalry games here.  Woodbury played East Ridge tough in the 2nd meeting at East Ridge but the Raptors advance.  Tartan beat NSP twice and Tartan moves on again.  But last year Damien Johnson had a great game plan for the section game to take away Antwan Kimmons.  Expect a real battle there.  CDH no problems with Stillwater and Jaeden King is back.  Central coming off the big Twin Cities Game win goes into White Bear Lake.  Daveonte Davis vs Jeremy Beckler is a fun matchup.  But another hidden story is Ronelle Porter defending Sam Schwartz.  White Bear Lake survives and moves on.

Tartan then gets CDH in the semis and give me Tartan here.  CDH likes to run up and down and not defend.  Tartan will control pace and take advantage of the tough shots CDH takes.  East Ridge is a bad matchup for White Bear Lake.  Raptors won both meetings including the last one by 26 last week.  East Ridge then takes out Tartan in a defensive battle in the championship game.  Tartan not enough offense besides Antwan Kimmons in that game.

Section 5AAAA
Wed 3/6 High Seeds, Tues 3/12 at Coon Rapids, Fri 3/15 at Rogers
8 Irondale at 1 Park Center
5 Centennial at 4 Osseo
6 Roseville at 3 Spring Lake Park
7 Mounds View at 2 Champlin Park

Top 2 seeds no problems.  Spring Lake Park won by 12 at Roseville in December, they'll win the rematch at home.  Osseo handled Centennial on the road a month ago and will win that rematch as well.   The Park Center vs Osseo rivalry in the semis will be interesting.  Park Center won easily at home but only by 1 at Osseo.  They'll survive here.  Champlin Park finished the regular season with a 16 point win at Spring Lake Park.  The Rebels win again in the semis.  Park Center won big at Champlin Park when they met in the regular season.  Pirates too deep for the Rebels and Park Center moves on to state.

Section 6AAAA
Tues 3/5 High Seeds, Fri 3/8 and Wed 3/13 at Osseo
1 Hopkins vs 4 St. Louis Park/5 Minneapolis South
2 Wayzata vs 7 Minneapolis Washburn
3 Robbinsdale Armstrong vs 6 Minneapolis Southwest

Note these seeds are not posted at time of this writing but I can't see them going any other way.  Pure chalk for the 1st 2 rounds.  Armstrong had no problems at Southwest in December and should win easily at home.  St. Louis Park no problems taking out Minneapolis South in the 4 vs 5 game.  Wayzata big over Washburn.  Hopkins and Wayzata both win the semis without a ton of trouble.  Wayzata knocked off Armstrong earlier in the season.

Then the 3rd meeting and another meeting in the section final between Hopkins and Wayzata.  Hopkins has been my pick the last 2 years and lost.  Hopkins destroyed Wayzata by 27 at Wayzata in the final regular season meeting last year.  This year they win easily by 15 at Wayzata in the 2nd meeting.  Hmmm, seems like a pattern.  The pattern means I pick Hopkins here.  Wayzata's depth is an advantage but Hopkins has a major inside advantage with Nnaji and Zimmer.  Hopkins breaks the curse and moves on to state.

Section 7AAAA
Tues 3/5 High Seeds, Sat 3/9 at Princeton, Th 3/14 at Elk River
8 St. Francis at 1 Blaine
5 Coon Rapids at 4 Anoka
6 Andover at 3 Cambridge-Isanti
7 Forest Lake at 2 Duluth East

This section returns to Elk River for its final.  As always its a wide open section.  Forest Lake beat Duluth East by 9 at home without John Schrader.  Now Schrader is back but the game is on the road.  I'll still take Forest Lake to pull the upset.  Anoka won 2 tight games (1 in OT) vs Coon Rapids.  Coon Rapids lost 8 in row before a final night win.  Anoka wins again.  Cambridge-Isanti too much firepower for Andover.

Blaine was able to grind out a couple of wins vs Anoka in the regular season.  They do it again in the semis.  Cambridge-Isanti beat Forest Lake early in the year.  Its a different Forest Lake team now and they'll keep Cambridge from getting up and down.  I still think Cambridge has too much firepower and shoots it too well and will advance.  But Blaine will be too much in the final.

Section 8AAAA
Tues 3/5 High Seeds, Sat 3/9 at St Cloud St, Th 3/14 Neutral Site
8 St. Cloud Tech at 1 Maple Grove
5 Brainerd at 4 St. Michael-Albertville
6 Rogers at 3 Moorhead
7 Elk River at 2 Buffalo

The top 3 seeds all have no problem in rematches in round 1. STMA won by 9 at Brainerd on opening night.  Give me that win again with STMA hosting after the long trip.  Maple Grove lost to STMA by 7 on Dec 11th but MG gets revenge in the semis.  Buffalo lost at home to Moorhead by 11 in early December.  Love the Matt Willert vs Malik Harden-Hayes matchup here.  Buffalo has won 19 of their last 20 though and they also get a W.  Buffalo beat Maple Grove at Maple Grove in mid January.  This one will likely be at Monticello and another classic.  Buffalo is hot so I'll stay with that streak to take the Bison to win the rematch of last year's section final.