2022 Better Than Chalk Section Predictions

A full regular season of viewing is in the books.  149 games later and now the playoffs begin.  With that in mind, here are the 2022 Better Than Chalk Predictions

Once again here are the rules.  Any fool can pick nothing but top seeds (aka chalk) and claim they were something like 306-13 on their picks.  My mission is to do better than that bracket.  I also pick all games at the start of the playoffs rather than going round by round to increase the challenge.  I don't get any chance to make up for my mistakes by picking day by day.

Not happy with how I picked your team?  Use the hashtag #ShockTheCzar on twitter and on your locker room/virtual whiteboards to express your outrage.  So without delay, here we go 

Section 4A
Only 16 teams playing but we still get the ladder format.  Top 4 seeds get a double bye to the quarters, next 4 seeds get an opening round bye.

Tuesday Round of 16 pigtails:  CHOF, Heritage, PACT, Metro Schools College Prep
Th Round of 12: Eagle Ridge over CHOF, Avail over MSCP, Trniity over PACT, Hope over Heritage
Sat Qtrs: New Life over Eagle Ridge, Liberty over Avail, Legacy over Trinity, W Lutheran over Hope
Tue Semis: New Life over Liberty, Legacy over W Lutheran
Fri Final (at ARCC): New Life over Legacy

Rule 1 of Pigtails, always take the home team so I take high seeds here.  Fun contrast of styles in the 12/13 game but I'll take Metro Schools College Prep over North Lakes in that one.  CHOF and Eagle Ridge played OT in their regular season meeting so look for a very good 8/9 matchup there.  Hope handled MCAA champ West Lutheran in the regular season, but give me West Lutheran in the home rematch in the quarters.  Expect that 2/7 game to be more interesting than the numbers indicate.  Liberty makes it 3 wins over Avail.  Legacy handled Trinity in the regular season, I see that happening again.  West Lutheran beat a young Legacy team twice in MCAA play but I'm going to pick the upset here.  New Life just beat Legacy big a week ago.  Give me New Life to be the last team standing.

Section 5A (Bonus selection)
3 seed in the east Kaleidoscope barely survives 6 seed Braham on Thursday before falling to Cromwell.

Section 4AA
This section will also use the ladder format to avoid the dreaded 100-16 1 seed over 16 seed situation.

Monday Pigtails: Nova over Hmong Academy, Washington over Humboldt
Th Round of 12: St. Croix Lutheran over Roosevelt, TCA over LILA, Math and Science over Nova,     SPA over Washington
Sat Qtrs: Minnehaha over SCL, SCPA over TCA, Concordia over M&S, St Agnes over SPA
Tues Semis: Minnehaha over St. Agnes, Concordia over SCPA
Fri Final (at ARCC): Minnehaha over Concordia

Both pigtail games look like blowouts.  Nova then gets a rubber match against Math and Science, great draw there.  Rest of the Thursday games look very ugly.  Example being a SPA/Washington rematch from a game SPA won by 60 in the Harding holiday tourney.  St Agnes just got a big win over SPA, I see that again in the quarters.  St. Agnes guards are a major defensive problem for SPA.  SCPA holds off TCA in another quarter.  Minnehaha and Concordia advance easily.  Minnehaha over St. Agnes with no matchup for Prince Aligbe.  Concordia and SCPA split the regular season and tied in the Skyline.  Lorenzo Levy and AJ Greene are a dangerous duo, give me Beacons in that one.  Minnehaha over Concordia in the final as the size of the Aligbe brothers will be a problem.

Section 5AA
Th Round of 16: Minneapolis North over Ubah, Rockford over Cristo Rey, MCA over HLWW, Providence over BC, Blake over Dassel-Cokato, SW Christian over Breck, Holy Family over Edison, Watertown-Mayer over Hiawatha
Sat Qtrs: Minneapolis North over Watertown Mayer, Rockford over Holy Family, SW Christian over Maranatha, Providence over Blake
Tues Semis (at STMA): Minneapolis North over Providence, Rockford over SW Christian
Fri Final (at Augsburg): Minneapolis North over Rockford.

Minneapolis North rolls thru the bracket.  Too much defense from the Polars gets them too much easy offense.  Edison beat Holy Family in December but give me the Fire's size here.  Watertown-Mayer a bad draw for Hiawatha in round 1.  SW Christian won a close neutral site game over Maranatha, give me the road upset here at MCA.  Providence got Blake twice in IMAC play, they get the 3rd win as well.  Rockford gets another win over SWC in the semis.  Pepin/Zilmer vs Zimmerman/Burke worth watching there.

Section 6AA (Bonus selection)
6 seed Spectrum wins a rematch with 11 seed Melrose.  Sting knocked off Melrose in the St. Cloud Cathedral tourney by 10.  3 seed Albany takes them out in the Saturday quarters at St. John's.

Section 3AAA
Wed Qtrs: South St. Paul over Harding, De La Salle over Highland Park, Simley over Como Park, St. Thomas Academy over Two Rivers
Sat Semis:  South St. Paul over St. Thomas, De La Salle over Simley
Th Final: De La Salle over South St. Paul

St. Thomas Academy should have gotten the 4 seed for the rival playoff game vs Two Rivers (1 game better in Metro East).  The teams split the regular season.  Give me St. Thomas Academy here.  Simley holds off Como Park.  In the semis, top 2 seeds move on.  Then a dynamite section final.   Pace will be key in that game and its easier to slow the pace than to speed it up.  De La Salle's style will frustrate the Packers.  I'll take the upset here.

Section 4AAA
Wed Qtrs: Columbia Heights over Hill-Murray, Johnson over Henry, Totino-Grace over St. Anthony, Mahtomedi over Fridley
Sat semis: Columbia Heights over Johnson, Totino-Grace over Mahtomedi
Th final (hopefully moved to somewhere big): Columbia Heights over Totino-Grace

1st round is pretty straight forward.  Semis no end surprise but each team will pull away in the 2nd half.  Then the final that will be called the real state championship game as its the top 2 teams in AAA.  Columbia Heights will be geared up for this game but TG has played many big games this season.  With Hinsz and Scoggins, Heights has some size to match TG. TG has been very up and down this season.  Heights more consistent.  Muja Burton vs Demarion Watson is a big matchup on the wing.  Terrence Brown vs Taison Chatman at the PG spot is another important spot to watch.  Depth is a problem for both sides.  Flip the coin and give me Heights in a classic thanks to home court here.

Section 6AAA
Wed Qtrs: Orono over Kennedy, Hutchinson over Richfield, BSM over Delano, Mound-Westonka over AHA
Sat Semis:Orono over Hutch, BSM over Mound
Th Final (at Chanhassen): Orono over BSM

Hutch beat Richfield (w/o Mitchell January) to secure this home game.  Sam Rensch was big in that game.  That and home court enough to move the 4 seed thru.  Orono takes them out in the semis.  BSM beat Mound-Westonka very early in the year.  They'll host the rematch in the semis.  Just too much firepower but a very competitive game.  Orono beat BSM twice but finished 1 game behind them in the Metro West.  I got burned on an Orono over BSM pick last year.  Only fitting to try again here.

Section 1AAAA
Tues Qtrs: Farmington over JM, Owatonna over Mayo, Lakeville N over Century, Lakeville S over Northfield.
Sat Semis: Farmington over Lakeville S, Lakeville N over Owatonna
Fri Final (at Rochester Civic Arena): Farmington over Lakeville North

No surprises in the 1st round.  Farmington beat Lakeville South twice but only by 3 points in each game.  An Avery Mast vs Kyle Hrncir matchup there is very appealing.  Tigers are coming off big wins over Lakeville N and Eastview to earn the 1 seed, they survive and advance.  The other game will be a defensive struggle.  Lakeville North battle tested and 2 tough matchups in Jack Robison and Nolan Winter.  North advances.  Farmington beat Lakeville North twice in the regular season.  Its a tough matchup for the Panthers so give me Farmington again.

Section 2AAAA
Wed Qtrs: Shakopee over Chaska, Eden Prairie over Waconia, Tonka over Prior Lake, Edina over Chanhassen
Sat Semis:Shakopee over Edina, Eden Prairie over Tonka
Fri Final: Shakopee over Eden Prairie

Top 4 move on with no trouble in round 1.  Malcolm Jones may go for 35 and 15 for Prior Lake vs Tonka.  But Tonka outscores them.  Eden Prairie has had Tonka's number this season and they do it again in semis.  Shakopee's press took out Edina in the regular season, Sabers win again.  Shakopee too much fire power for Eden Prairie in the final.  Nick Katona and Sam West give Shako a couple of options to defend Chiddi Obiazor.

Section 3AAAA
Wed Qtrs: Eastview over Hastings, Park over Apple Valley, Jefferson over Burnsville, Rosemount over Eagan.
Sat Semis:Eastview over Rosemount, Park over Jefferson
Th Final:Eastview over Park

No first round surprises.  Caleb Siwek carries Rosemount to a tough lower scoring win over Eagan in the 4 vs 5 game.  Too much Pharrel Payne in the semis for Park as they beat Jefferson.  They a Payne vs Jamal Ambrose matchup in the final, YES PLEASE!  Eastview too deep and they advance.

Section 4AAAA
Wed Qtrs: East Ridge over NSP, CDH over Central, Stillwater over Tartan, White Bear Lake over Woodbury
Sat Semis: East Ridge over White Bear Lake, CDH over Stillwater
Th Final (at Hastings): CDH over East Ridge

4 seed Woodbury was 2 games back of White Bear Lake in the Suburban East but got the home game due to 2 close head to head wins.  Woodbury has limped home.  Jack Janicki leads the Bears to the road upset.  3 seed Tartan got a tough draw in Max Shikenjanski and Stillwater.  Our own coach K has 3 days to prep for the Princeton point action.  Let's take this upset as well.  Biggest key there will be the 2nd guy for each team.  Shikenjanski is going to get his, but what role guys step up.  Top seeds advance in the semis.  Then a classic final.  Each team won their home game, but CDH dominated the home game.  Give me CDH to move on.

Section 5AAAA
Wed Qtrs: Park Center over Champlin Park, Osseo over Roseville, Spring Lake Park over Maple Grove, Irondale over Mounds View
Tues Semis: PC over Irondale, Osseo over Spring Lake Park
Th Final (at Rogers): PC over Osseo

Irondale should have gotten the home game over Mounds View.  But they won the road regular season meeting, they do it again.  Spring Lake Park gets the perfect draw vs a Maple Grove team that they pounded at MG during the regular season.  No matchup for Logan Kinsey here.  Panthers win again. Semis the luck runs out.  Park Center gets a game from rival Osseo in the final, PC moves on.  Their defense just too much for the Orioles to handle.

Section 6AAAA
Tues Qtrs: Wayzata over Washburn, Hopkins over St. Louis Park, South over Southwest, Cooper over Armstrong
Fri Semis: Wayzata over Cooper, Hopkins over South
Tues Final: Wayzata over Hopkins

No surprises in round 1.  South knocked off Southwest twice in Mpls City place, they get win number 3.  The 4/5 game gives us the Armstrong vs Cooper rivalry in a repeat of last year's 1st round game.  I don't see another Cooper blowout, but the Hawks do get a home win.  No surprises in the semis but South will give Hopkins all they want.  Wayzata gets a close 3rd win over Hopkins in the final.

Section 7AAAA
Th Qtrs: Andover over Cambridge-Isanti, Coon Rapids over Anoka, Centennial over Forest Lake, Duluth East over Blaine.
Tues Semis: Andover over Duluth East, Coon Rapids over Centennial
Th Final (at Chisago Lakes): Andover over Coon Rapids

Andover might put up 100 on Cambridge.  Centennial got the 3 seed based partly on a big road win at Forest Lake, Cougars win again.  Coon Rapids moves on.  Duluth East beat Blaine by 2 in regular season.  They win a struggle in the 4 vs 5 game.  Andover beat Duluth East in Duluth, they do it again at home.  Coon Rapids wins their 3rd game vs Centennial.  Andover gets their 3rd win over Coon Rapids in the final.

Section 8AAAA
Tues Qtrs: Buffalo over STMA, Rogers over Sartell, Bemidji over Moorhead, Brainerd over Elk River
Sat Semis: Buffalo over Brainerd, Bemidji over Rogers
Th Final (at Neutral Site): Buffalo over Bemidji

Brainerd was 2 games better than Sartell in the Central Lakes and beat them head to head twice in the regular season.  But because this section decided to go QRF only (they used to use their own formula but rules dictate that they must use QRF or coaches seed), they drop to the 4 seed.  This is why we shouldn't use ANY computer as a sole seeding method.  

This section will make or break your bracket.  All 4 opening round games should be very competitive.  STMA and Rogers split their 2 games so if you had to pick 1 single 8 seed to pull an upset over a 1 seed, STMA would be it.  Rogers is battle tested in the NW Suburban and Sartell has stumbled home, yes I'm calling the 7 seed to pull the upset.  Bemidji won 2 close games vs Moorhead and they get a 3rd vs a huge Moorhead lineup.  Brainerd won a close home game vs Elk River in January, that happens again here.  Top seeds move on the semis.  Buffalo takes out Bemidji in the final with too much Antonio Blueitt.