2012-13 Missota Preview

This is the sixth preview in my 2012-2013 season preview series.  In this preview, a look at the Missota Conference.  For a list of all the season previews, click here.

Academy of Holy Angels Stars (2011-12 season 15-12, 8-6 Conference, Tied 3rd)
The Stars look to bounce back from a disappointing end to last season.  They were looking at a 2 seed and then lost their last 3 regular season games.  That forced a road game at Blake which was their 4th straight loss to end the year.  A surprising finish since coach Larry McKenzie's teams usually finish strong.  The roster is loaded with juniors Jordan Dembley and Delshon Strickland returning outside.  Senior Sam Keis also returns at a guard spot.  Firepower is back inside too with junior center Charlie Koontz and Danny Sullivan.  Those are the top 5 scorers.

Chaska Hawks (2011-12 season 14-13, 8-6 Conference, Tied 3rd)
The Hawks were a pleasant surprise last season still making .500 despite losing 2 star players.  They return 7 pieces returning from last year.   Post Eric West leads with 13.5 PPG.  The starting backcourt of soph Justin Arnold (PG) and junior Kolby Seiffert (SG) also returns.  Seiffert was the other double figure scorer at 11.5 PPG.  Junior forward Isaac Tewes and defending guard Chris Auer are experienced pieces.  Junior Matthew Witthus and soph Jacob Hansen will also contribute.

Chanhassen Storm (2011-12 season 23-6, 13-1 Conference, 1st)
The Storm suffer the heavy losses in the league.  Wing Kevin Jensen's 18 PPG are off to U of Mary.  Forwards Cole Otto and Steven Gitzen are gone along with shooter Joey Stark.  Slick passing point guard Brandon Arnold will be sorely missed.  The cupboard isn't completely bare though.  Jared Lea returns as a defender.   Jack Kozlowski is a front court workhorse.  Soph Joey Witthus is primed for a breakout season after an outstanding summer.

Farmington Tigers (2011-12 season 10-17, 6-8 Conference, Tied 5th)
Injuries had a major impact on this squad last year.  Lost 7 of 11 to end the season with one of those wins being a 2 OT win over lowly Northfield and a loss at home to Red Wing.  But the Tigers won at Chaska and beat Holy Angels, Shakopee and New Prague at home.  The top 4 scorers return.  The top 3 are juniors Darren Beenken, center Nick Varner and wing McKinley Bassett who all averaged double figures.  Soph Zach Speikers also returns as the 4th scorer.

New Prague Trojans (2011-12 season 19-10, 9-5 Conference, 2nd)
The front court duo of Sergio Najera and Trevor O'Brien combined for almost 24 a night and needs to be replaced.  Forward Jake Meyer also departs as an inside banger.  Junior Paul Friendshuh was in that rotation last year too and should step right in and fill that gap.   Junior post Michael Soderlund will likely step into the front line as well.  The backcourt is solid with everybody back.  Joe Kneip, Nick Johnson and Luke Rynda make up a solid group that moves the ball well and can knock down shots.

Northfield Raiders (2011-12 season 5-21, 0-14 Conference, 8th)
Center and leading scorer Leif Olson needs to be replaced.  Guard Eric Shepley is the top returning scorer at 10.6 PPG.  Nothing significant in the pipeline that could improve the outlook.  Expect another long season.

Red Wing Wingers (2011-12 season 11-16, 6-8 Conference, Tied 5th)
The Wingers lose their top scorer Joel Newman who put up almost 18 points a night.  Ryan Parr needs to be replaced up front.  The 2nd through 5th scorers return and are young.  Junior Isaac Toivonen reached double figures at 10.7 a night.  Ty Buck averaged over 9 a game as a freshman.  Captain Ryan Boldt returns for leadership along with junior forward Jon Sevlie.

Shakopee Sabers (2011-12 season 10-17, 6-8 Conference, Tied 5th)
The Sabers went young last year as there were no seniors on the roster.  The line up is huge with 4 of the top 5 scorers from last year being 6'4 or taller.  That includes double figures scorers John Burlager and junior Tyler Weiss.  He'll play lots outside with his ability to handle and shoot it.  Jake Maiers is a strong inside body.  Soph Evan Hagen returns after running the point last year.  Look for outside shooting to be a key for this squad.

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Holy Angels
2. Chaska 
3. Shakopee
4. Farmington 
5. New Prague 
6. Chanhassen 
7. Red Wing
8. Northfield

Conference Overview:
The Missota bounces back very strong this season.  Holy Angels, Chaska, Shakopee and Farmington all return most of their rotations.  Chanhassen's returnees will keep them solid but with all the losses they have to move down.  Red Wing returns 4 members of their rotation.  New Prague's guards are solid and if Paul Friendshuh breaks out they can be very dangerous.  I can see 6 teams all good enough to win at least 7 conference games.  That doesn't count Red Wing who normally would look to move up with 4 pieces coming back but there's too much in front of them.  The top 3 are pretty clear but can be in any order.  Ditto that for the next 3 teams who are all talented enough to make a dent in the conference race.  Particularly Farmington when teams come to their place.

Conference MVP: Jordan Dembley - Holy Angels

Underclassmen to watch:  

• Trenton McCarthy- Holy Angels
• Ty Buck - Red Wing
• Steffon Mitchell, Evan Hagen - Shakopee
• Joey Witthus - Chanhassen 
• Zach Speikers - Farmington

Conference Games to Watch

• Holy Angels at Chaska- Jan 11th 
• Chaska at Shakopee - Jan 22nd
• Holy Angels at Shakopee - Jan 29th
• Chaska at Holy Angels - Feb 8th
• Shakopee at Chaska - Feb 19th
• Shakopee at Holy Angels - Feb 26th

Non-Conference Games to Watch

• Blake at Chaska - Dec 4th
• Holy Angels vs Roseville - Dec 8th (Tipoff Classic at Minnetonka)
• Woodbury at Shakopee - Dec 11th
• Owatonna at Shakopee - Dec 13th
• Chaska at Waconia - Dec 21st
• Chaska at Eden Prairie tournament - Dec 27 and 29th
• Edina at Shakopee - Jan 4th
• Shakopee at Eden Prairie - Jan 8th
• Holy Angels at Blake - Jan 8th
• Shakopee at Waconia - Jan 26th
• Richfield at Holy Angels - Feb 2nd

2012-13 Metro Charter Preview

This is the fifth preview in my 2012-2013 season preview series.  In this preview, a look at the Metro Charter Conference.  For a list of all the season previews, click here.

FAIR Downtown Falcons (2011-12 season 24-3, 8-1 Conference, Tied 1st)
Here's 1 of the programs in the league that took on heavy losses.  Post Desmond Williams and star wing Darrion Scott are gone. Akil England and Darion Schlington also graduate.  Soph John Warren was the next in line but he's off to Hopkins.  Deonte Blakemore saw action later in the year and also is done.  Andre Burton is the lone returning player of note.

Math & Science Academy Dragons (2011-12 season 1-10, 0-8 Conference, 6th)
Leading scorer Brady Hannula was the only double figure scorer and graduates.  Carl Cobian and junior Michael Dubois look to pick up the slack.  Expect another very long season.

Minnesota Transitions Wolves (2011-12 season 12-14, 4-6 Conference 4th)
Top scorers David Wallendorf and wide body Tevin Sims combined for 38 points a night and need to be replaced. Junior Willie Parrish and senior guards LaRon Dunn and Terence Lofton give the Wolves offense options.

Prairie Seeds Academy Lycans (2011-12 season 23-3, 8-1 Conference, Tied 1st)
In the other half of the league's duo of mange, expect a much different year for PSA.  Tim Williams returns to run the program after a year away.  Most of the roster is gone including 59 points per night from the top 4 scorers.  Gage Deis and Trent Pollard used up their eligibilty.  Devin Buckley is off to Park Center.  Reserve Troy May is off to Robbinsdale Cooper.  Dominick Jackson and younger brother Jamil are off to MetroTech Academy with their dad and last year's PSA coach Jamil Jackson who takes over that program.  A top freshman from last year's JV, Xavier Pollard, is also gone.  Major rebuilding effort this season.

St. Croix Prep Lions (2011-12 season 13-13, 5-5 Conference, 3rd)
A impressive 1st varsity season for the Lions as they won 13 games.  The entire roster is back.  Soph Michael Gutierrez will run the show.   Leading scorer Jakob Schollmeier returns up front at 11 points a game.  Wing Wes Berg is a wing threat.

Spectrum Sting (2011-12 season 5-20, 3-7 Conference, 5th)
The duo of Jacob and Jaden Shockley returns to lead the Sting.  They both averaged just over 10 points a game last season.  Leading scorer Steven Delain departs.

Predicted Order of Finish

1. St. Croix Prep
2. Minnesota Transitions
3. Prairie Seeds
4. FAIR
5. Spectrum
6. Math & Science

Conference Overview:
A year of change in the Metro Charter Conference.  Tons of losses in the city and plenty of returning players in the suburbs.  St. Croix Prep has built up the program with patience and hard work and I think they're rewarded this year.  Of course, you never know what you'll get at MTS, FAIR or PSA.  You know those teams will have athletes and that's something the other league programs don't have.

Conference MVP: Jakob Schollmeier - St. Croix Prep

Underclassmen to watch:  
Michael Gutierrez - St. Croix Prep

Conference Games to Watch

• St. Croix Prep at MTS - Jan 22nd
• MTS at St. Croix Prep - Feb 12th

 Non-Conference Games to Watch

• St. Croix Prep at St. Croix Lutheran - Dec 7th

2012-13 MCAA Preview

This is the fourth preview in my 2012-2013 season preview series.  In this preview, a look at the Minnesota Christian Athletic Association (MCAA).  For a list of all the season previews, click here.

Bethany Academy Eagles (2011-12 season 11-15, 3-10 Conference, 4th South)
The Eagles will have to replace their only player in double figures Max Mattila.  The lefty was a difficult front court matchup.  Junior Sam Hagen just missed out on double figures last season, I could see him averaging at least 15 a night this season.  RT Mould and Luke Mikhail also return.  A question mark will be size.

Heritage Christian Academy Eagles (2011-12 season 21-8, 8-5 Conference, 3rd North)
Heritage made a big leap last season by knocking off league powerhouse Maranatha at home in the section semis.  Expect another 20+ win season as 5 of the top 6 scorers are back.  Brad Basco leads the way inside at almost 16 a night.  Zach Weld, Evan Parkhurst and Christian Pieper all return and averaged double figures.  

Legacy Christian Academy (2011-12 season 12-16, 3-10 Conference, 4th North)
Center Ben Freeby averaged over 19 a night and will need to be replaced.  He could also alter shots so he'll be missed on the defensive end too.  Ryan Kopca's double figure scoring is also lost.  Connor Peterson is the top returnee at almost 7 points a game.

Lester Prairie/Holy Trinity Bulldogs (2011-12 season 17-11, 8-5 Conference, 2nd South)
Guard Jared Kadrie and 17 points a game depart.  Fellow guard Nick Machemehl averaged over 15 a night last season and will pick up some of that slack.  Fellow juniors Alex Heigl and post Spencer Radtke also return to form a nice 2 year nucleus for the Bulldogs.

Maranatha Christian Academy Mustangs (2011-12 season 21-8, 12-1 Conference, 1st North)
In a major shocker to absolutely no one, the Mustangs will once again be very good.   They lose shooter Jamey Hammond and 16 points a night.  6 members of last year's rotation will soften the blow of that loss.  The Hanson name remains entrenched as senior Isaiah had a big summer and will lead the way this season.  Soph Jeremiah was the 4th scorer last year but still averaged over 12 a night.  Senior Garrison Gillard also averaged over 12 points a night and was a major ballhandler for them.  Soph Grantham Gillard saw varsity time all last season and will see major minutes this year.

New Life Academy Eagles (2011-12 season 16-12, 7-6 Conference, 3rd South)
New Life will have to replace their top 3 scorers.  Post Dan Otto and perimeter players Alex Heiser and Cody Linton combined for 36 points a game.  Senior Cam Duffy returns along with juniors John Horner and Kyle Linton.  Soph Conrad Engstrom gives the Eagles a versatile option as well.

PACT Charter Panthers (2011-12 season 7-19, 2-11 Conference, 5th North)
The Panthers feature the top returning scorer in the league.  Lefty Drew Zieroth averaged 20.6 points per game last year.  2 other starters return, junior guard Danny Mooers and center Austin Stone.  Junior Daniel Nelson was the 4th leading scorer as a 6th man last year.  Guard Austin Coons is the only notable loss.

Southwest Christian Stars (2011-12 season 8-18, 3-10 Conference, 5th South)
Brian Horner averaged almost 18 points a game but graduated.  Junior Kevin Horner averaged over 13 a night in limited action.  He's a prime candidate to up his average this season.  Junior Luke Johanson and senior Mitchell Petersen are other options for former Stars standout Kit Avery. 

Trinity Tri-Hawks (2011-12 season 17-11, 10-3 Conference, 1st South)
One of the metro's top scorers Tony Kuplic departs after averaging 27.2 PPG.  2nd leading scorer Josh Koletar also graduated.  Mike and Caleb Dahl are 2 of the top returners.  Soph Jon Lotti will also see major minutes.

West Lutheran Warriors (2011-12 season 20-8, 9-4 Conference, 2nd North)
The guard duo of Dustin and Martin Barth combined for 26 points per game last year.  They will be the offense this season.  16.7 points from Justin Anderson will be missed.  Anderson and center Martin Bilitz were the 2 tallest players on the roster so the Warriors will need to find size.

Predicted Order of Finish

North Division

1. Maranatha
2. Heritage
3. West Lutheran  
4. PACT
5. Legacy

South Division

1. Lester Prairie/Holy Trinity 
2. New Life
3. Trinity
4. SW Christian
5. Bethany

Conference Overview
The north is the stronger division of the 2 with 3 of best 4 teams in the league.  Maranatha is the clear favorite but the gap has narrowed between them and everybody else.  Heritage and West Lutheran will battle for 2nd and 3rd.  Drew Zieroth leads PACT out of the division cellar.  In the South, LP/HT has too much coming back to not pick them.  New Life has enough back to be an easy pick for 2nd but not enough to overcome the Bulldogs.  The bottom 3 could toss up in any order.

Conference MVP: Isaiah Hanson - Maranatha

Underclassmen to watch:  
Grantham Gillard, Jeremiah Hanson- Maranatha
Conrad Engstrom - New Life
Jon Lotti - Trinity

Conference Games to Watch

• West Lutheran at Heritage - Dec 11th
• LP/HT at New Life - Jan 4th
• Maranatha at West Lutheran - Jan 8th
• Heritage at Maranatha - Jan 15th
• Maranatha at LP/HT - Jan 22nd
• New Life at LP/HT - Feb 1st
• Heritage at West Lutheran - Feb 5th
• West Lutheran at Maranatha - Feb 7th
• Maranatha at Heritage - Feb 15th
• Conference Tournament - Feb 23rd at Maranatha

Non-Conference Games to Watch

• Robbinsdale Cooper at Maranatha - Dec 18th
• Lakeview Christian at West Lutheran - Jan 4th (possible Anders Broman sets state scoring record)
• Lakeview Christian at New Life - Jan 12th
• Heritage vs Minneapolis Henry - Jan 26th (Super 60 Showcase at Washburn)
• Maranatha at Minneapolis Washburn - Feb 9th

2012-13 Minneapolis City Preview

This is the third preview in my 2012-2013 season preview series.  In this preview, a look at the Minneapolis City Conference.  For a list of all the season previews, click here.

Edison Tommies (2011-12 season 8-19, 2-10 Conference, 6th)
The Tommies lose 3 of their top 4 scorers.  Wing Joseph Anderson is the top returning scorer at 9.5 points a game.  Guard Brian Givens returns at about 8 points a game.  The schedule isn't as weak as last year.  I project this group at about 5 wins.

North Polars (2011-12 season 3-21, 1-11 Conference, 7th)
Mike Shelton takes over for Bret McNeal after this storied program fell completely apart last year.   Top scorers Corey Jones and Jaylin Dubose are gone.  Lee Gaines returns but the Polars will need to find something to go around him.  Guards Jamal Brown and Travis Wilson are 2 candidates to pick up the slack.  Expect another very difficult season.

Patrick Henry Patriots (2011-12 season 13-12, 9-3 Conference, Tied 2nd)
Wing Shawn Atkins and post Tim Gill are 2 double figure scorers that the Patriots have to replace in their short rotation.  Wing Darius Hill returns at 25.5 points a game with ability to get to the rim or knock down open jumpers.  Wunell Beard will once again run the point.  He just missed being the 4th player to average double figures for Henry last season.  Matt Robinson returns as an inside banger.  JJ Jefferson projects as an offensive factor on the other wing.

Roosevelt Teddies (2011-12 season 7-19, 3-9 Conference, 5th)
Former Roosevelt star and 1995 Mr. Basketball Rob Mestas takes over this year after Dennis Stockmo moved up to the AD job.  Leading scorer Demetrius Durant returns to run the point.  4 other starters were lost.  Sophs Terry Thomas and Arione Farrar Jr (though he may have transferred) saw time last year and would be pieces to build around.

South Tigers (2011-12 season 11-14, 9-3 Conference, Tied 2nd)
After a 5-13 start, the Tigers won their last 6 regular season games.  That included a 4 point win at Henry to tie for 2nd at 9-3 in league play.   Leader and leading scorer Carnell Sheppard (20.5 PPG) will be sorely missed.  Lefty Thomas Ford averaged 8.7 a game but was able to go off at any time (28 vs Cooper last year).  Isaiah Wilson will lead the offense.  Expect Kenley Farrow to also be a bigger offensive factor as well.

Southwest Lakers (2011-12 season 9-18, 6-6 Conference, 4th)
Their 6 win conference season matched the total number of league games they won the 3 previous seasons.  I think that was more about how bad the rest of the league was -- they got their wins against the bottom 3 -- rather than a major step forward.  Guard Demetrius Cady is back and he was the top scorer last year for the Lakers.  Forwards Josh Barnes and Will Kalberg-Taylor averaged double-figures and will need to be replaced.

Washburn Millers (2011-12 season 29-3, 12-0 Conference, 1st)
After a heartbreaking loss at the buzzer in the 3A championship game, Coach Reggie Perkins has moved down Nicollet Ave to take the Bloomington Kennedy job.  Point guard Nick Anderson and wing Dejon Davis followed him there.  They also lose 6 seniors from the rotation.  Overall the top 7 scorers are gone.  Noah Scarver's 6+ a game leads the returning players.  Don't expect the Millers to fall off too much though.  They've won all 3 levels of the city the last 2 years.  That depth pays off this year.  Soph Kevin Gleason will take over the point.  Soph Evan Shepherd and junior Quinton Garvis will take over the wings.  All 3 were JV starters last year.  Athletic junior Jeff Jones was a varsity player all last year.
(Czar's Note 10/17/12: I've since told that Nick Anderson stayed at Washburn)

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Washburn
2. Henry 
3. South
4. Southwest
5. Roosevelt
6. Edison
7. North

Conference Overview
Normally you have an elite team at the top.  This year may be the worst this league has been top to bottom in a long time.  Roosevelt, Edison and North will struggle to win a handful of games.  Southwest and South are down so I can't see them reaching .500 overall. Henry has some talent but with more talent last year they were barely a .500 team.  Washburn will still be the class of the league but their youth puts them a year away from being what they've been recently.

Conference MVP: Darius Hill - Henry

Underclassmen to watch:  
Payton Bowdry - Minneapolis South
Kevin Gleason, Evan Shepherd - Washburn

Conference Games to Watch

• Washburn at Henry - Jan 11th
• Henry at Washburn - Feb 14th

Non-Conference Games to Watch

• Eden Prairie at Washburn - Dec 4th
• Heritage vs Henry - Jan 26th (Super 60 Showcase at Washburn)
• Lakeville South at Washburn - Jan 26th (Super 60 Showcase)
• Henry at Cooper - Feb 8th
• Maranatha at Washburn - Feb 9th
• De La Salle at Washburn - Feb 22nd
• Twin Cities Game (Minneapolis Champion) - Mar 2nd

2012-13 Lake Conference Preview

This is the second preview in my 2012-2013 season preview series.  In this preview, a look at the Lake Conference.  For a list of all the season previews, click here.

Eden Prairie Eagles (2011-12 season 23-9, 4-4 Lake Conference, Tied 2nd)
The Eagles lose a couple of important pieces in shooter Sander Mohn (14 PPG) and post Jordan Peterson (9 PPG).  The backcourt is loaded with senior point guard Grant Shaeffer and Andre Wallace.  Shaeffer put on a performance for the ages in the state quarters vs Eastview last year.  39 of his 41 points in the 2nd half and OT.  That included 25 points in a row and the buzzer beater to force OT.  Junior Andre Wallace also returns and he's getting high D1 interest from places like Iowa State.  Wing Anthony Anderson, defensive stopper Grant Gordon and power forward Jack Cottrell also return.  Juniors Aaron Workin and Deidrick Hubbard give the Eagles a couple of option to man the post.

Edina Hornets (2011-12 season 19-10, 4-4 Lake Conference, Tied 2nd)
If there's another player who blew up more this summer than Graham Woodward I don't know who it is.  The point guard is the top returning scorer in the league at 20.2 PPG.  He just committed to Penn State.  Teammate Reggie Lynch also showed great improvement.  He'll man the middle and is a big time impact player blocking shots on the defensive end.  His offense has grown leaps and bounds in the last couple of years as well.  Mark Handberg, Dane Tueteberg and Nick Boone return as frontcourt bangers.  Marley Allison returns at a guard spot.  Flip Deberg's 13 points a night will be need to be replaced.

Hopkins Royals (2011-12 season 30-2, 8-0 Lake Conference, 1st)
3 year point guard and leader Siyani Chambers, main inside threat Zach Stahl, shooters Demetrius Martin and Nicholas Jorgenson all graduated.  That's the top 4 scorers who accounted for 60 points a night.  They also lose football star Andre McDonald.  Juniors Kamali Chambers (PG), Jake Wright (SG) and Stephon Sharpe (F) all saw time last year and should step right into the starting lineup. Senior Jamal Davis provides experience.  The 5th spot should be wide open.  Junior Treyvon Edwards, freshman star Amir Coffey and senior undersized post Philip Stribling should also see plenty of playing time. Robbinsdale Armstrong transfer Nobel Fahnbulleh also should make the rotation.  They'll be young but still very good.

Minnetonka Skippers (2011-12 season 19-9, 3-5 Lake Conference, 4th)
The Skippers lose 3 of their top 4 scorers. Post Latrell Love averaged 15+ and will be the most difficult piece to replace.  Tommy McDermott's 17+ and Joe Risinger's 11+ and defense will also need to be replaced.  Defenders Andrew Turnblad and Danny Burger also graduated.  Wisconsin commit Riley Dearring is the top returning player.  He averaged 14.5 PPG last year.  Sophomore Andrew Grosz and senior Grant Kellogg return at the guard spots.  Junior Luke Pettersen came on late last year as a shooter.  Junior Careino Gurley returns with his toughness.  Grant Steele and soph Evan Altenburg are candidates to man the inside but they don't provide the same scoring punch as Love.

Wayzata Trojans (2011-12 season 19-8, 1-7 Lake Conference, 5th)
The Trojans opened last season 16-0 before conference play got underway.  Then glue guy Brad Carlson missed time and center Chad Potas injured his knee.  They sent the Trojans on a downward spiral to a 3-8 finish.  Normally the Trojans lose a ton and then reload.  This year is a bit different as Wayzata returns 4 starters.  Carlson returns to unify the lineup.  Junior guard Kyle Kalivoda returns to run the offense.  On the wings, Zach Robertson who averaged 19 points a game and defensive stopper Drake Mjaanes are back.  Ben Joppa also returns up front.  Expect lanky Nick Eid and Sam Joiner to also see frontcourt time.

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Hopkins
2. Eden Prairie
3. Edina
4. Wayzata
5. Minnetonka 

Conference Overview
Despite what records will tell you, there isn't much difference from 1 to 5.  Wouldn't be shocked to see all 5 of these teams in the top 10 at some point during the year.  I wouldn't see any conference game as a major upset.  Hopkins may be young but they're still as talented as anyone.  Eden Prairie will figure out their front line to go wtih a dynamite backcourt.  Woodward and Lynch will give Edina a chance in any game, but who joins them.  Wayzata will be tough defensively and have offensive punch with Zach Robertson.  Minnetonka can't be discounted either as they have 2 solid pieces in Riley Dearring and Andrew Grosz.

Conference MVP: Graham Woodward - Edina

Underclassmen to watch:  
Ben Boone, Max Lynch - Edina
Amir Coffey, Graham Hutson, John Warren - Hopkins
Andrew Grosz, Justin Moes, Evan Altenburg, Alec Synstellien - Minnetonka
Grant Long - Wayzata

Conference Games to Watch

• Hopkins at Eden Prairie- January 31st
• Edina at Eden Prairie - Feb 5th
• Hopkins at Edina - Feb 12th
• Eden Prairie at Hopkins  - Feb 19th
• Eden Prairie at Edina - Feb 22nd

 Non-Conference Games to Watch

• Eden Prairie at Minneapolis Washburn - Dec 4th
• Hopkins vs Tartan - Dec 8th (Tipoff Classic at Minnetonka)
• Eden Prairie vs Rice Lake (WI) - Dec 8th (Tipoff Classic at Minnetonka)
• Edina vs Austin - Dec 8th (Tipoff Classic at Minnetonka)
• Blake at Edina - Dec 14th
• Hopkins at Apple Valley - Dec 18th
• Robbinsdale Cooper at Hopkins - Jan 4th
• Eden Prairie at St. Paul Johnson - Jan 10th
• Eden Prairie at Cretin-Derham Hall - Jan 12th
• Hopkins vs Blake - Jan 21st (MLK Day Classic at Minneapolis Henry)
• Eden Prairie at De La Salle - Jan 26th
• Edina vs St. Paul Johnson - Jan 26th (Super 60 Showcase at Heritage)
• Hopkins vs De Pere (WI) - Feb 2nd (Border Battle at Prior Lake)

2012-13 Classic Suburban Preview

Its that time as I begin my 6th annual season preview series.  As is tradition, we'll go through the metro area conferences in alphabetical order followed by a look at the metro area sections.  Let's get started with a look at the Classic Suburban.  For a list of all the season previews, click here.

Henry Sibley Warriors (2011-12 season 14-13, 9-7 Conference, Tie 5th)
The Warriors return sharpshooter Adam Huessner at 17.2 points a game.  Julius Johnson returns to run the point.  The front line is strong with Nick Goldberg, Zach Haas and Kessler Geschwill all seniors who started last year.  They have a pair of experienced juniors returning as well in forward Mark Pumper and Javon Daniels.  After Huessner, all of the scoring averages very similar for the rest of the rotation.  After going up by 8 wins last year, expect another jump this year.

Hill-Murray Pioneers (2011-12 season 17-11, 10-6 Conference, 3rd)
The Pioneers lose 3 of their top 5 scorers from last year.  That includes a powerful front line of 6'9" mountain Dave Simmet and Cullen Ogren who each averaged over 15 a game.  Fellow frontliner Jay Zobrowski averaged 6.6 a game and graduated.  Jake Christensen is the leading returning scorer at 8.7 a night and he'll be the inside focus for what should be a more guard oriented squad..  Lucas Glomb returns at the point.  Ryan Buron is a solid shooter and Eric Weimar can play both guard spots.  But the big news is soph star Marshawn Wilson coming over from Tartan.  Expect him to be the immediate focus for this squad.  With a smaller line up and defensive demon Wilson, will coach Dick Ghizoni stay with his 2-3 zone that has been so effective for years or will he extend the defense more?  Expect them to be a factor in the middle to top of the league.

Mahtomedi Zephyrs (2010-11 season 18-8, 10-6 Conference, 4th)
Mahtomedi returns matchup nightmare and the league's top returning scorer Zach Lindquist at 17.6 PPG.  The next 5 top scorers all graduated.  Only 2 other players of note return.  Those are guard Trey Johnson at 3.3 points a game and Jordan Goodmanson.  The rest of the roster has questions with experience.  Lindquist can go off the bounce or over power people inside.  He'll need to have a huge year to keep the Zephyrs in the top half.

North Polars (2011-12 season 12-15, 6-10 Conference, 7th)
Assistant Joe Janquart takes over at North but he also spent time at Sibley so he's plenty familiar with the league.  They lose their top 2 scorers in forward Hunter Books (18.5 a night) and almost 12 a night from guard Korey Dean.  This year's group will be young but they did get plenty of experience last year.  Junior post Joe Messerole started all year and played as a frosh.  He's the leading returning scorer.  Soph guard Jacob Steckler was a varsity player all year.  Junior Jonathan Hjelmgren saw lots of time as a soph.  Senior guard Tevin Beards provides experience as well.

Richfield Spartans (2011-12 season 16-12, 11-5 Conference, Tie 5th)
The high flying Spartans were the fastest paced team in the metro.  They played a ton of people and lost 8 members of their rotation.  Shooter and point guard Shawn Bear is gone.  Jared Noonan was another major catalyst and he's gone.  That's 32 points a night.  Deshawn Jones is a beast who averaged 13.7 a night last year.  He should contend for player of the year honors.  Louis Williams and Octavius Harris are athletic wings who return.  Expect more of the same from the Spartans this year where they'll play like nobody else in the league, run up and down and attack you in waves.

St. Thomas Academy Cadets (2011-12 season 18-11, 12-4 Conference, 2nd)
Former De La Salle assistant Dan Rubishko takes over for the Cadets.  Don't expect much of a shift in philosophy though.  The Cadets will still be hard nosed defensively with their man to man and run good motion offense.  The offense loses the league's top scorer Thomas Sjoberg and his 20.1 PPG.  This year's offense will be more balanced.  A pair of starters return with Harrison Patt to man the middle and Nick Valdvogel to run the point.  They Cadets have shooters in junior Ben Fiers along with senior Mitch Newberg and Keegan Zimprich.  Junior Cal Schneider gives them another banger.   They also have a talented sophomore class so keep an eye on their JV squad.

Simley Spartans (2011-12 season 7-20, 2-14 Conference, 8th)
In the last 4 years, the Spartans are 7-1 vs South St. Paul and 2-54 against everyone else in league play.  Leading scorer Johnny Spillane and 15.3 PPG graduated.  The next 4 leading scorers return including sophomore sniper Sam Stensgard and almost 9 points a night.  Posts Dillon Kaup and Connor Wells will need to be replaced.  They played North St. Paul tough last year so could this be the year they jump above the 8 slot?

South St. Paul Packers (2011-12 season 1-26, 0-16 Conference, 9th)
The Packers enter the season on a 36 game conference losing streak.  In the last 8 years of Classic Suburban play, they have a record of 3-125. Leading scorer Sam Doody and his 14.1 points a game are gone.  Another long year ahead for the Packers.

Tartan Titans (2011-12 season 20-7, 14-2 Conference, 1st)
Tartan has huge losses with point guard Darrion Strong leaving for Quakerdale Prep and Marshawn Wilson transferring just up the street to Hill-Murray.  One of the state's top 2015 guard prospects Donnell Gresham also left for Cretin-Derham Hall.  Post and shooter Kyle Von Schmidt Pauli also graduated.  But don't feel all that sorry for coach Mark Klingsporn.  He still has a squad that should be very good defensively with Xavier Hall, Kharie Kirkland and Mike Hudspeth to get after people.  Hudspeth and Mike Wales can both knock down shots.  Junior post Brody Jackson provides a big body inside. 

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Tartan
2. Henry Sibley  
3. Richfield  
4. Hill-Murray  
5. St. Thomas Academy 
6. Mahtomedi 
7. North
8. Simley
9. South St. Paul

Conference Overview
Despite the losses of their top 2 players, Tartan still has to be the team to beat.  I take Sibley 2nd as I think they'll be as deep as anybody in the league.  Their front line along with a shooter in Adam Huessner will make them a tough matchup.  Speaking of tough matchups, Richfield's style and athletes along with a difference maker in Deshawn Jones makes them a factor in the race.  Hill-Murray has been known for big lineups over the years but I like their guard depth this year.  2-4 is a group that is very similar.  5-7 fall into their own group.  St. Thomas will be adjusting to a new system and will need to find consistent scoring.  I like Zach Lindquist but will Mahtomedi have any help for him?  North St. Paul's youth moves them down the list.  Simley and South St. Paul show more of the same.

Conference MVP: Deshawn Jones - Richfield

Underclassmen to watch:  
Marshawn Wilson - Hill-Murray
Jacob Steckler  - North
Sam Stensgard - Simley
Ryan Jacobsen, Kai Endahl, Jake Wright - St. Thomas Academy

Conference Games to Watch

• Hill-Murray at Tartan - Jan 4th
• Sibley at Tartan - Jan 8th
• Tartan at Richfield - Jan 11th
• Richfield at Sibley - Jan 25th
• Richfield at Tartan - Feb 8th
• Tartan at Sibley - Feb 12th
• Sibley at Richfield - Feb 22nd

Non-Conference Games to Watch

• Sibley at Prior Lake - Dec 4th
• Tartan vs Hopkins- Dec 8th (Tip Off Classic at Minnetonka)
• Richfield at Waconia - Dec 8th
• Chaska at Richfield - Dec 11th
• Richfield at Holy Angels - Feb 2nd
• Richfield at Blake  - Feb 16th

2012 Gotta Make Shots Series Part 5

This is the 5th and final post in my 2012 Gotta Make Shots Series.  In the first 4 posts, we took a look back at the last 2 years of the Minnesota state tournament.  In this edition, we'll add up all the totals from the last 4 years and add some stats from our friends to the south.

To see all posts in the series, click here.

Tallying up the Minnesota Results
For 2012, teams with more shots had a combined record of 16-15 (a bit surprising).  Teams with the better shooting percentage were 23-9.

For 2011, teams with more shots were 10-19 while teams with the better percentage were a dominating 26-5

If you add in 2010, teams have combined over the last 3 state tournaments for a record of 40-50 (44.4%) when their team attempts more shots.  Teams with the better shooting percentage have combined over the last 3 years for a record of 73-22 (76.8%)

Class A was especially telling during that time.  Teams with a better shooting percentage were 21-3 while teams with more shots were 7-15.  Class AA teams were 11-12 with more shots but 16-8 with a better percentage.  Class AAA saw results of 12-9 for teams with more shots vs 18-5 with a better percentage.  Finally in class AAAA, teams with more shots were 10-13.  Teams with the better shooting percentage were 18-6

The Iowa Basic Tests
This section comes out of a discussion with blog pal John Carrier, read his coaching blog here.  What we're looking for is a holy grail type of statistic.  Given Stat X, your team will win.  In Iowa teams are required to submit their stats to a specific site on a monthly basis.  That gives us the ability to look at some other stats and see if there's a correlation. We'll use the 2011-12 stats from their 373 teams to do this.  We'll take different stats and see how they correlate to a team's win total.  To determine if there's a correlation, we'll use the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (click here to read more about it).  Its a widely used calculation to determine the strength of correlation between 2 items.  The value ranges from -1 to +1.   A value of 0 means no correlation.  A value of 1 is the strongest possible positive correlation.  More of X = more of Y.  -1 is the worst, More of  X means less of Y.   Anything from .1 to .4 is a mild correlation, .4 to .7 is a medium correlation, above .7 is a strong correlation.

In the spirit of this series, the first value we'll calculate is the correlation between wins and FG%.  This can be done with 4 values: Overall FG%, 2 pt FG%, 3 pt FG% and Effective FG%.  Effective FG% is calculated as (FGM + (3s made * 0.5))/FGA.  Here are the results of the correlation calculations.

• Wins and FG% = 0.78
• Wins and 2 Pt FG% = 0.7481
• Wins and 3 Pt FG% = 0.5756
• Wins and Effective FG% = 0.7749

As a Wisconsin guy, lets pull out a favorite Bo Ryan statistic, Points Per Possession.  This is an all encompassing stat of offensive efficiency.  Possessions isn't an exact science and there are many different calculations out there for it. For our purposes, total possessions for a team is calculated as FGA - Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers + (.475 * FT Attempts).

Wins and Points per Possession: 0.8260

This leads us to the Hubie Brown portion of the hypothesis which was that a team needs to increase possessions to be successful.

Wins and Possessions: -0.0902

Since the name of the game is basketball, let's look at the basic stats of points for and points against.

• Wins and Points Per Game Scored: 0.7940
• Wins and Points Per Game Allowed: -0.6421

These are reasonably in line with expectations but notice how points allowed has a fair difference between points allowed.  But both are significant which is logical.

Lets combine a couple of the stats

• FG% and Points Per Game: 0.8090
• Effective FG% and Points Per Game: 0.8150
• Effective FG% and Points Per Possession: 0.9174

The scoring factor that hasn't been looked at yet is Free Throws

• Wins and FT%: 0.4698
• Wins and FT Made Per Game: 0.5432
• FT% and Points Per Possession.  0.6136

So free throws aren't nearly the factor that field goals are.   Since there's a much narrower range of free throw % values, it makes sense that number of free throws made would be more important than the % that you make.

Hubie Brown also talked about offensive rebounds and turnovers as factors so let's look at those next.

• Wins and Offensive Rebound %: 0.5234
• Wins and Turnovers Per Game: -0.3586

We talked about scoring above, but does it matter when you score?

• Wins and Average Pts in 1st Qtr: 0.7831
• Wins and Average Pts in 2nd Qtr: 0.7028
• Wins and Average Pts in 3rd Qtr: 0.7018
• Wins and Average Pts in 4th Qtr: 0.3240

This gives big importance to getting off to a good start.  2nd and 3rd quarters about the same which is logical.  4th quarter being surprisingly not important can be explained by bench play in blowouts.

Teams talk about being unselfish.  Here are a couple of assists stats.  Take it with a grain of salt because assists at the high school level are notorious for how inaccurate they are.

• Wins and % of field goals with an assist: 0.2721
• Wins and Assist/Turnover ratio. 0.7150

This was interesting because we saw the base turnover number above was surprisingly low.  But this leads again to the theory that you can outshoot your turnovers.  Less assists would mean a lower ratio and less wins.

This isn't a scientific study by any means, but it does provide some interesting results.  Defensive numbers weren't available but doing some of these stats on the defensive end such as FG% against, Points Per Possession against etc would also be very interesting to see.  Those stats weren't directly available

Conclusions

• Field goal percentage is still king.
• Turnovers aren't as big a deal as expected.  You can overcome them with good shooting.
• 4th quarter scoring isn't all that big of a deal.
• Number of possessions has no meaning.

2012 Gotta Make Shots Part 4

This is part 4 in my 2012 Gotta Make Shots series.  In this edition, a look at results from the last 2 Class AAAA state tournaments. 

2012 State Tournament
Woodbury vs Hopkins
Woodbury +13 shot attempts and had 16 offensive rebounds.  They outshot Hopkins 44.1 to 38.2%.  How does Hopkins make up the difference to win in OT?  The get to the line and win with a 32-9 advantage in made FTs.  That included a state tournament record 22-24 from Siyani Chambers.

Duluth East vs Osseo
Osseo + 15 shots and they outshot the Greyhounds 41.9% to 36.2%.  Osseo trailed by 4 at the half, but the second half shooting tells the story.  Osseo gets 8 more attempts and shoots 53.6% vs 32.4 in the 1st half.  Duluth East only shot 35% in the 2nd half.

Moorhead vs Lakeville North
Lakeville North gets 2 more shots but they lose the percent battle 43.5% to 41.7%.  The Panthers also make up the difference at the foul line with a 17-7 advantage in FTs made.  They also use their size for a 13-7 advantage on the offensive glass which was worth 10 more points (15-5). 

Eden Prairie vs Eastview
Very even here as Eastview gets 1 more shot attempt.  They won the points off turnover battle 19-9.  But what you do when Grant Schaeffer goes for 39 in the 2nd half and overtime.  Eden Prairie wins the shooting percentage 53.5% to 50%.

Hopkins vs Osseo (Semifinal #1)
Hopkins with 4 more shots and the make 11 of 34 3s compared to 0-12 from the arc for Osseo.  That almost allows Hopkins to recover from a 48.6% to 41.9% loss in the shooting percentage.  Osseo with 62 of their 87 points in the paint and they won the rebounding battle 56-31 including 18 offensive boards.  Osseo turned it over 25 times for a 24-17 scoring advantage for Hopkins

Lakeville N vs Eden Prairie (Semifinal #2)
Eden Prairie had 3 more shot attempts but shot only 33.3%.  That wasn't enough to overcome 42.2% from Lakeville North.  North also pulled away at the foul line with a 16-2 advantage in FTs. 

Hopkins vs Eden Prairie (Third Place)
Hopkins with 16 more shot attempts but only shot 38.8%.  They make up the difference with an 18-8 advantage in made free throws.  Eden Prairie shot 49%.  The numbers are a bit misleading as Hopkins shot 46.2% in the 1st half to 44.4% and had 12 more attempts.  That allowed the Royals to open up a 22 point halftime lead before a cold shooting 2nd half at 28.6% to 54.2% allowed the Eagles to make up 10 points..  Hopkins with a 15-4 advantage on the offensive glass for the game.

Osseo vs Lakeville North (Championship)
Lakeville North gets 5 more shots in the game. but shoots only 28.6%.  Osseo makes only 40.9% including the buzzer beater from Ian Theisen.  Lakeville North with 6 more made free throws.  That included a 13-4 advantage in the second half when Osseo made 55.6% of their shots.  Lakeville North with 7 more points off of turnovers.  In a surprise, they won the battle on the offensive glass 18-14 which turned into a 14-5 advantage in points (11-0 second half).

The team with more shots lost 4 of the 8 games for a 4-4 record.  The team with the higher shooting percentage was 5-3.  The magic value in all 3 of those losses was the free throw line.  The 3 losses saw the team lose the free throw battle 67-24.

2011 State Tournament
Owatonna vs Hopkins
Hopkins gets 18 more shots thanks to a 22-16 advantage in turnovers and a 15-6 advantage on the offensive glass.  The Royals shoot 44.8% on those extra shots and hold Owatonna to 42.5%

Duluth East vs Cretin-Derham Hall
Duluth East with 9 more shots in the game.  The Greyhounds shot a dreadful 27.9% compared to 46.2% for CDH who shot 52.2% in the 2nd half to pull away.  Duluth East with a 12 point advantage in 2nd chance points thanks to a 20-11 on the offensive glass.  CDH got that back with an 8 point advantage in points off turnovers.

Lakeville South vs Eden Prairie
Dead even in shot attempts in this one with Lakeville South making 1 more shot.  Eden Prairie with a 16-9 advantage in offensive rebounds for 10 extra points. They also made 5 more free throws.  Lakeville Soth 47.5% to 45.8% for Eden Prairie

Maple Grove vs Osseo
Maple Grove gets 7 more shot attempts but they shoot 30.8% in the second half.  Osseo shoots a scorching 65.2% in the 1st half.  The Orioles make 10 more free throws.  Overall shooting saw Osseo 53.3% to 38.5% for Maple Grove.

Hopkins vs Cretin-Derham Hall (Semifinal #1)
Hopkins with 3 more shots.  They shoot 52.7% for the game compared to 44.2 for CDH.  That included 55.6 to 44 in the 2nd half.  Hopkins 17-6 in 2nd chance points thanks to a 17-5 advantage in offensive rebounds.  Hopkins with a 13-2 advantage in made free throws.

Eden Prairie vs Osseo (Semifinal #2)
Osseo with 3 more shot attempts but they get outshot 45.1% to 38.9%.  Both teams ice cold in the 1st half (19-60) and then hot in the 2nd half (25-45).  Eden Prairie also wins at the foul line 21-8.  The offensive rebounds huge with Eden Prairie winning that 16-4 but only an 8-4 points advantage.  That did turn into 40-28 in points in the paint.

Cretin-Derham Hall vs Osseo (Third Place)
CDH with 4 more shot attempts in the 4 point loss.  They shoot 34.6% compared to 39.6% for Osseo.  Osseo also with a 5 point advantage at the foul line.

Hopkins vs Eden Prairie (Championship)
Hopkins with 1 more shot attempt and they shot 56.8%.  Eden Prairie shot 44.2%.  Hopkins 18-8 in points off turnovers.  Eden Prairie 64.7% in the 1st half (similar to their upset of Hopkins that season) but 30.8% in the 2nd half compared to 60% for Hopkins was just too much to overcome.

The team with more shots lost 4 of the 7 games with a shot differential for a 3-4 record.  The team with the higher shooting percentage had a record of  7-1.  The 1 loss being in the game where the shot attempts were even and there was a 1 make difference.

2011 Gotta Make Shots Part 3

The 2012 Gotta Make Shots Series rolls on with part 3.  After a look at the small schools, its time for a look at the last 2 years of the AAA state tournament.  To see all posts in this series, click here.

2012 Class AAA State Tournament

• ROCORI vs Minneapolis Washburn
  Washburn with 14 extra shot attempts.  They shoot only 34% for the game.  ROCORI shoots 56.3% in the 2nd half for a 48.7% overall result.  Washburn 1 extra 3 and 1 extra free throw.  They win 2nd chance points 12-6 and points off turnovers 20-8 (21-11 advantage in turnovers)
• St. Paul Johnson vs Austin
  Johnson with 4 extra shots.  They shoot 44.6% compared to 50% for Austin.  Johnson with a 17-6 edge at the foul line.  They also win points off turnovers 20-6 and 2nd chance points 15-12.  Austin with 12 2nd half turnovers to only 5 for Johnson. 
• Detroit Lakes vs De La Salle
  Detroit Lakes gets up 16 more shots but this game was out of hand early.  Detroit Lakes shoots 35.7% in the first half to 60% for the Islanders.  That number was down to 30.3% in the 2nd half for Detroit Lakes.  10-0 DLS at the foul line.
• Mankato East vs Grand Rapids
  7 more attempts for Mankato East.  Grand Rapids outshoots them 40.8 to 32.1.  16-6 edge for Grand Rapids at the foul line.  They also had a 17-8 win in 2nd chance points. 
• Minneapolis Washburn vs St. Paul Johnson (Semifinal #1)
  Washburn with 13 more shot attempts and a 45.9% shooting clip.  Johnson shoots 43.8% for the game.  Washburn 25-16 in 2nd chance points and 26-21 in points off turnovers.  That 2nd number is always huge against Johnson who relies so much on their defense to generate offense.  Washburn's advantage in offensive rebounds was 22-11. 
• De La Salle vs Grand Rapids (Semifinal #2)
  DLS with 9 more shots.  Grand Rapids held to 30.4% shooting in the 2nd half while DLS shot 57.1% in that half.  That led to a 17 point DLS margin in that half.  DLS wins the overall FG% 50-39.  They also made 5 more 3s.  24-8 for DLS in points off turnovers. 
• Grand Rapids vs St. Paul Johnson (Third Place)
  Equal field goal attempts in this one.  Grand Rapids gives up 60.9% in the 1st half to Johnson while shooting 41.7%.  Johnson wins points off turnovers 22-15. 
  
• De La Salle vs Minneapolis Washburn (Championship)
  Washburn gets up 4 extra shots.  They shoot 38.9% for the game.  DLS 44% for the game.  14-9 for Washburn at the line, 4-0 for DLS from 3.  Washburn 20-13 in points off turnovers and a 15-9 edge in 2nd chance points.  27.6% shooting in the 2nd half for Washburn but with 12 more attempts in the half they make 1 more field goal. 

The team with more shots had a record of 4-3.  The team with the higher shooting percentage also had a record of  6-2. Turnovers again looming large.

2011 Class AAA State Tournament

• New Prague vs St. Paul Johnson
  Johnson put up 12 more shots but got outshot 14-7 from 3.  I was court side for that one and it was truly a lights out shooting display.  New Prague ends up at 55.8% for the game while Johnson shot 50.9%.  New Prague shot 68.4% with 8 of 11 3s in that second half to come from 8 down.
• Marshall vs Columbia Heights
  Columbia Heights with 6 more shots in the game.  They shoot 47.5% on those.  Marshall shoots 27.3% in the 2nd half for 35.8% overall.  Heights with a 22-0 advantage in points off turnovers.  Despite giving up 21 offensive boards vs 14 of their own, Heights still won 2nd chance points 19-14
• Grand Rapids vs Waconia
  Grand Rapids put up 2 more shots at only a 38.3% clip.   They shoot 29.2% in the 1st half compared to 56% for Waconia.  Wildcats use that advantage to open a 19 point halftime lead.   Grand Rapids never closer than 9 after that.
• St. Cloud Apollo vs Orono
  2 more shots for Orono and they win FG% 45.8% to 43.9%.  Apollo 1-11 from the floor in the overtime to seal their fate. 
• New Prague vs Columbia Heights (Semifinal #1)
  Heights with 12 more shots but cold at 35.6%.  New Prague not much better at 38.3%.  New Prague again with a big advantage in 3s, 11-1.  Heights countered with a 14-3 edge at the foul line.  They also had a 22-13 edge in points off turnovers and 18-11 in 2nd chance points (18-6 on the offensive glass).
• Waconia vs Orono (Semifinal #2)
  Orono got up 5 more field goal attempts.  Spartans shoot 32.7% to 34.1% for Waconia.  Waconia with an 18-8 edge in 2nd chance points.  Orono with 7 3s and an 18-13 edge in points off turnovers.
• New Prague vs Waconia (Third Place)
  Both teams shoot 40 times and make 45%.  Waconia with a 19-11 edge in free throws, 13-6 in 2nd chance points and 22-18 in points off turnovers.
• Columbia Heights vs Orono (Championship)
  Heights 15 more shot attemps and they made 39.7% of those.  Orono 66.7% in the 2nd half on their way to 53.4% for the game.  Orono makes 5 more 3s.  Columbia Heights +4 in points off turnovers  and +10 in 2nd chance points thanks to a 24-14 edge on the offensive glass.  Both teams equal at the charity stripe but it took Heights 6 more attempts.

7 games to count up in this group.  The team with more shot attempts had a record of 4-3.  The team with the better shooting percentage fared 1 game better at 5-2.

2011 Gotta Make Shots Part 2

In part 1 of this year's Gotta Make Shots Series, we took a look at the results from class A.  In part 2, let's take a look at the last 2 years of the AA state tournament.  To see all posts in this series, click here.

2012 Class AA State Tournament

• Worthington vs Perham
  Worthington 4 more attempts.  They lose FG% 48.8 to 46.7.  Perham 8-2 advantage in made free throws and 13-8 lead in points off turnovers.
• Watertown-Mayer vs Litchfield
  Litchfield with 1 more shot attempt in their win.  They shot 39.5% compared to 43.2% for WM.  Litchfield with a 17-5 advantage in made free throws.  They also won points off turnovers 19-7 thanks to 21 Watertown-Mayer turnovers.
• Plainview-Elgin-Millville vs St. Peter.
  PEM with 15 extra shots.  They shot 37.1% for the game.  St. Peter held to 36.2% (33.3% 2nd half).  St. Peter did have a 27-17 lead in made free throws.  PEM 15-7 advantage in points off turnovers.
• St. Croix Lutheran vs Braham
  St. Croix Lutheran shoots 51.5% for the game while Braham shoots 48.4%    2 extra attampts for St. Croix Lutheran.  Braham would make 7 bombs to 1 for SCL in the 2nd half to make a huge comeback.  Overall advantage from 3 was 11-2.  St. Croix Lutheran won points off turnovers 22-11
• Perham vs Litchfield (Semifinal #1)
  Litchfield with 4 extra shots in a snoozefest.  They make 38.9% of those shots.  Perham makes 43.8%.  Litchfield hung in with a 15-2 advantage in points off turnovers.
  
• Plainview-Elgin-Millville vs Braham (Semifinal #2)
  PEM gets up 1 extra shot.  They shoot 52.6% and make 8-17 3s.  Braham shoots 46.4% but only 6-27 from 3.  PEM 16-9 in free throws made and 15-10 in points off turnovers.
• Perham vs Braham (Third Place)
  Braham with 24 more shot attempts but only 32.9% shooting (30.3% 2nd half).  52.9% shooting for Perham in the game.  Braham 24-9 edge in points off turnovers.  Perham 13-4 in made free throws.
  
• Litchfield vs Plainview-Elgin-Millville (Championship)
  PEM 5 extra shot attempts.  They shoot 45.8%.  Litchfield shoots 28% in the 2nd half, 32.6% overall.  PEM with a 25-2 edge in points off turnovers. 

The team with more shots had a record of 5-3.  The team with the higher shooting percentage also had a record of  5-3. Turnovers a huge factor for the teams with more shot attempts.

2011 Class AA State Tournament

• Rochester Lourdes vs Long Prairie-Grey Eagle
  LPGE gets 5 more shots but Lourdes wins the percentage 45.5% to 34.2%.  That included 56.3% to 31.6% in the first half.  Lourdes 19-4 in points off of turnovers despite the turnover difference between 15-12.
• Redwood Valley vs Minnehaha
  Minnehaha Academy got up 9 more shot attempts.  They shot 43.9% for the game in the loss.  Redwood Valley 47.9% from the floor and a 20-8 advantage in made free throws.  Minnehaha won points off of turnovers 10-4 but lost 2nd chance points 14-5.
• Virginia vs Perham
  Not really fair to evaluate this game at this was the return of Zach Gabbard game.  It was over early as Perham shot 62.5% to Virginia's 26.1% in the 1st half on the way to a 24 point halftime lead.  52.3% for the game for Perham and 32.6% for Virginia.   Virginia with 2 more shots in the game.
• Waterville-Elysian-Morristown vs Zimmerman
  WEM would come from 10 down at halftime thanks to a huge shooting advantage in the 2nd half. They shoot 61.9% to 35.5% in that second half.  WEM shoots 55% overall to 43.1% for Zimmerman.  WEM with 18 less shots in the game but they made 7 more free throws.  They also won points off turnovers 23-12 despite losing the overall turnover count 22-18.
• Rochester Lourdes vs Redwood Valley (Semifinal #1)
  In a trend that has been rare in these stats, Lourdes gets more shots (8) and shoots a lower percentage (32.6 to 31.4) but they win a classic but ugly semifinal in 4 OT, 48-42.  Redwood Valley also outrebounded Lourdes 44-27.   Redwood Valley with 20 turnovers.
• Perham vs Waterville-Elysian-Morristown (Semifinal #2)
  WEM with 8 more shots but they were stone cold at 25.5% including 1-11 in the 2 OTs.  Perham overcomes 34.9% shooting to win 45-41.  Most of the other stats even, 9 blocks to none in favor of Perham. Free throws and 3s even.
  
• Redwood Valley vs Waterville-Elysian-Morristown (Third Place)
  WEM 9 more shots attempts and they shoot 48% on those attempts.  Redwood Valley not shabby from the field as they shot 51.2%.  58.3% shooting in the 2nd half brought WEM back from 4 down at halftime.  14-3 advantage for WEM in points off turnovers. 
• Rochester Lourdes vs Perham (Championship)
  Lourdes with a huge advantage in attempts 49-31.  They make only 32.7% of those attempts.  Perham shoots 38.7%, makes 12 extra free throws and 4 extra 3s.  Lourdes wins 2nd chance points 13-2.  Perham 14-8 advantage in points off turnovers.

The team with more shots lost 6 of the 8 games for a 2-6 record.  The team with the higher shooting percentage had a record of 6-2.

2012 Gotta Make Shots Part 1

Long time readers will recall that in the fall of 2009 and again in 2010 I wrote posts analyzing shooting as a factor in winning at the state tournament.  For those who didn't see those articles or want a refresher, check out the links below to see the details. 

The Original Gotta Make Shots Article (explanation)
Gotta Make Shots 2010 Series

Those posts explain the Hubie Brown theory of a bad team needing more shots to win.  I then concluded that it really boils down to shooting percentage.  So in this 1st part of a 5 part series, I take a look back at some more historical data to see if the theories still hold up.  We'll start with a look back at the class A state tournament games.  Then we'll progress through classes AA, AAA and AAAA.  Then in the final installment of the series, we'll tally it all up and add some extra data.

2012 Class A State Tournament

• Lakeview Christian Academy vs Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa
  LCA with 2 extra shots in the game.  They shoot 38.1% compared to 52.5% for BBE.  They overcomes a 12-5 advantage in 3s for LCA.  BBE forces 21 turnovers for a 23-16 advantage in points off turnovers.
  
• Mountain Lake-Butterfield-Odin vs Browerville
  Browerville with 14 more shots, but only 35.3% shooting.  That included 29% in the second half when MLBO pulled away.  MLBO 46.4% for the game
• SW MN Christian vs Fosston
  Fosston with 15 more shots but another state tourney early exit thanks to 29.3% shooting.  SW MN Christian shoots over 50% in each half for 51.2% overall.
• Prairie Seeds Academy vs Rushford-Peterson
  PSA with 16 more shots in the game but again that's no help.  The Lycans shoot 44.3% for the game and give up 54.5% on the other end in the 2nd half.  Rushford-Peterson ends up at 44.4%.  A huge 26-5 advantage at the foul line and 26-13 on points off turnovers keeps PSA from moving on.
• BBE vs MLBO (Semifinal #1)
  BBE gets 11 more shots in the 2nd half as MLBO can't buy a bucket.  MLBO 9.1% shooting in the 2nd half (not a typo, they were 2-22).  They hold BBE to 25.9 in that half but too big a margin to overcome.  BBE also with a 28-3 advantage on points off turnovers (23-9 total turnover advantage).  13-3 in made free throws also went to BBE.  Jags roll 56-36.
• SW MN Christian vs Rushford-Peterson (Semifinal #2)\
  SW MN Christian with 9 more attempts and they lose the FG% battle 39.5% to 31.9%.  SW MN Christian overcomes all of that by winning the turnover battle 14-9 and with a 12-7 win on the offensive glass.
• MLBO vs Rushford-Peterson (Third Place)
  Rushford-Peterson rolls with 15 extra shot attempts.  23-11 advantage in points off turnovers and a 22-9 advantage in 2nd chance points.  Rushford-Peterson shot 49.1% to 47.5% for MLBO.  Huge factor was a 15-4 advantage in made 3s for Rushford-Peterson.  32 of their 55 attempts were from the great beyond.
• BBE vs SW MN Christian (Championship)
  SW MN Christian with 6 extra attempts.  They shot 34.6% while BBE shot 39.1%.  SW MN Christan 3-20 from the 3 point line.  18.5% shooting for SW MN Christian in the 2nd half to lose a 4 point halftime lead.  BBE 17-6 advantage in made free throws.  BBE 22-8 in points off turnovers (23-18 advantage in turnovers).

The team with more shots had a record of 3-5.  The team with the higher shooting percentage had a record of  7-1.  The 1 loss being in the game where SW MN Christian made up the difference with turnovers and free throws.

2011 Class A State Tournament

• Goodhue vs Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa
  Goodhue had 4 more shots in the 70-54 loss.  They shot 35.7% for the game compared to 40.4% for BBE.  Huge advantage for BBE at the line 27-8.   They also held a 22-7 advantage in 2nd chance points thanks to a 22-8 advantage on the offensive glass.  Goodhue won the turnover battle 25-19 but lost the points off of turnovers 22-18.

• MACCRAY vs Maranatha
  MCA with 12 more shots but they lost 61-52.  MACCRAY shoots 47.8% compared to 37.9% for the Mustangs.  MACCRAY also with a 10 point advantage in made free throws.
• Chisholm vs Fosston
  This game saw the teams dead even in field goal attempts.  Chisholm only shoots 40.4% but they hold Fosston to 25.5%.  The Bluestreaks forced 19 Fosston turnovers for a 15-4 advantage in points.
• Springfield vs Upsala
  Upsala with 13 more shot attempts but they shoot only 33.3%  for the game.  They forced 23 Springfield turnovers compared to 19 of their own but Springfield was +6 in points off turnovers.  Springfield was very efficient on offense as they shot 50% in each half. 
• BBE vs MACCRAY (Semifinal #1)
  MACCRAY with 4 more shots.  BBE shoots 55.4% for the game compared to 41.7% for MACCRAY.  That included 38.5% in the 2nd half.    BBE took 23 turnovers and turned them into a 36-15 advantage. 
  
• Chisholm vs Springfield (Semifinal #2)
  The Bluestreaks get off 6 more shots than Springfield.  Chisholm held to 32.7% while Springfield wasn't much better at 36.7%. (26.7% in the 2nd half).  Springfield makes 6 extra free throws in the OT to put it away.
• MACCRAY vs Chisholm (Third Place)
  MACCRAY with a couple of extra shots.  They shoot 45.3% on those and hold Chisholm to 37.3%. (24% in the 2nd half).  That allows MACCRAY to pull away.\
• BBE vs Springfield (Championship)
  BBE gets up 80 shots compared to 59 for Springfield.  They shoot only 33.8% on those shots but hold Springfield to 37.3%.  BBE with a 26-14 advantage on the offensive glass for a 26-12 advantage in pionts.  Springfield would recover with a 17-8 advantage in points off turnovers.  They would have a 20-2 advantage at the foul line and held BBE to 2-27 from 3 to win 70-58.

The team with more shots lost 6 of the 7 games with a shot differential for a 1-6 record.  The team with the higher shooting percentage had a record of 8-0.

Welcome to Czar Season 6

Welcome to my 6th season here in cyberspace.  As is the usual case with the start of the school year, I've flipped the menu links to the new season, 2012-13 in this case.  Overall you'll find very little has changed.  If it ain't broke don't fix it.  I've simplified the 2012-13 season menu to have less clutter.  Links for the Timberwolves Shootout and other big events will come later.  I've updated the top menu to include the fall ball link so that its easily accessible on mobile devices.  

Links to the current recruiting calendars for D1 and D2 are updated in the Recruiting Links section.  The Rankings link has been updated to include the very latest national rankings from Rivals, Scout, ESPN and CBS for local players and I've maintained the links to the full Minnesota rankings for Northstar Hoops Report subscribers.  Those rankings go all the way out through the class of 2016.

Hard to believe fall basketball and another school year is already here.  Seems like I was just in Las Vegas to end the summer season.  Should be another outstanding season.  I'll begin my annual season previews and predictions in mid-October ending just before regular season practice starts in November.

Reflections on Las Vegas 2012

Another trip to Las Vegas is in the books.  Here is what I'll remember.  Game and team details can be found in my Northstar Hoops Report article.   I was on my own for the trip so thanks to the outlying venues of the other tournaments, I ended up only doing the Adidas Super 64.

Best Game
Fury Dixon vs Pump N Run 16s.  This game was setup by both teams winning their way to the round of 16.  No team held a lead of any note in the 2nd half and it came right down to a Fury buzzer beater to win it.  Fury storms the court after the win and you can't blame them.  They lost the 1st 3 meetings of the year, including last week at the buzzer during the Best Buy Summer Classic.  Great win for the Fury squad.

Best Win
Fury Davis over Dallas Mustangs.  Fury Davis took on the loaded Dallas Mustangs squad and controlled the 2nd half.  Another typical performance from a Fury team where if you don't play well, they can make you look bad.  Very impressive.

Officiating
I made it out to a handful of outer gyms and the officiating for those gyms was just fine.  The main gyms at the 17U super pools court was another story.  Last year this was a NBA officials camp and the games were well done.  Not this year as the officials were still being evaluated but they were positively awful.  PNR 17s head man hit it on the head with "Do you guys just pick names?".  It was so bad that the evaluators came out during a timeout and chewed the refs tails.  Wish it would have gone on for the whole minute.  Absolutely shocking how bad it was for those premier games.

The Strange
The Urban DFW vs Compton Magic round of 16 game saw a donnybrook breakout.  The benches emptied and a punch was thrown (that thankfully missed, think Kermit Washington).  Both benches emptied and all players on the bench and the 2 players in the game who fought were ejected.  The last 5 minutes were played 4 on 4.  Urban DFW ended up winning that game and still had guys to play PNR in the quarters.  There was some question if DFW would be allowed to play that game as all of those players may have had to sit out.   Ultimately the game was played with PNR winning.

At one point on Saturday night at the PNR 15s game, there was 1 college coach watching and 2 fans using blankets thanks to the frigid air conditioning.  Not the only building where that happened.  Then there were a couple of other buildings that chose to open the doors and play with out AC despite the heat.

The casino floor had NBC, but no NBC in the rooms to watch the Olympics.

Had a group of teenage girls hoops players come up to me and ask me if I was a coach.  I showed my media pass and then asked what tournament they were in.  They had no idea.

The Food
Last year, they had outstanding pizza at the main Super 64 venue and didn't have it this year.  Major disappointment.  Thanks to getting in early, I was able to spend some time at the buffet.  While it was an expensive $16 (by Vegas standards), it was brunch and the bacon was some of the best I've ever had.  French toast, biscuits and gravy, a big slab of turkey with mashed potatoes and gravy.  A great way to fill up.  But no scramble eggs anywhere to be found, pretty surprised at that.  Had McDonald as part of the shops in the hotel.  But a 15 minute line at 12:30 AM?  What's up with that?  Thankfully the Super 64 is a Pepsi outfit.  With the Vegas heat, they did rather well out of my pocket book at the wonderful cost of just $1 per 12 oz can.  See locals, you can still make a profit at just $1.

The Gambling
I won 3 out of 4 nights.  More shocking is that I actually had the discipline to get up and walk away while on a streak.  This was really true on opening night.  Once again I had a big opening night and with nowhere to be until the games started at 5 PM, I had plenty of time to stay up.  But I took my winnings and left early that night.  Of course, on night 3, I wasn't smart enough to do that with losses and threw away some extra bucks in the last 30 minutes which ultimately kept me from a profit for the trip.  Night 4 was about the entertainment value of the dealers dressed as cocktail waitresses (for the record, yes its a distraction, hit me generally gets you smacked because you're not looking at your cards).  No Xena the Warrior Cocktail Waitress this year but we did get a quality Marilyn Monroe look-alike.  Overall, same as last year, dead even if you throw out the tips.  For 4 nights of entertainment, I'll take that.


Sadness
The trip was book-ended by tragic news.  We awoke in Vegas on Wednesday to find out about the deaths of former Henry stars Jordan Hughes and Mandela Jackson.  I saw both play numerous times at Henry.  Its a harsh reminder of how short life can be.  Then the trip ended with word of Southwest Minnesota State head coach Brad Bigler being seriously injured and losing his 5 month old son Drake in a car accident thanks to a repeat drunk driver.  We'll keep him and his family in our thoughts.

2012 Best Buy Summer Classic Preview

Its a big week in Minnesota summer basketball as Howard Pulley visits the Peach Jam, Select and Glory invade Louisville and Net Gain visits Milwaukee but most everyone else is home for the 4th annual Best Buy Summer Classic at Jefferson and Kennedy.  Pool play begins at 4 PM Thursday and ends Friday night.  Bracket play Saturday and Sunday with championships at 2:20 Sunday afternoon.  As is the case with most college coaches, focus here will be on the 17U division.

2 super pools in 17U with M33M, Dakota Schoolers I, Indiana Elite Stars MN PNR making up the 1st super pool.  The Schoolers bring in one of their better teams in recent memory.  Center Zach Hanson just committed to Creighton but had offers from Iowa St and Missouri.  Wing Lane Severyn just picked up an NDSU offer and athletic Skyler Flatten is another player at a D1 level for the Schoolers.  Guard Jordan Pickett leads the Indiana Elite Stars who were the 2nd Indiana Elite super pool team last week in Indianapolis.  They were 1-2 and knocked out in the round of 32.  Then you have the host Minnesota Pump N Run.  Reid Travis just picked up a USC offer.  Point guard Graham Woodward and guard Gerald McCarver both played well last week.

The team to watch is M33M.  #11 in the Rivals national ranking is 6'5 wing Robert Hubbs.  6'7 wing Austin Nichols is ranked 43rd by Rivals.  Then a couple of highly touted freshmen in 6'10 Skal Labissiere (#8 ESPN's 2015 rankings) and point guard Nyck Smith.  Hubbs stock has really shot up since he played here last.

Pool B has perennial power Franchize All-Stars, the returning Michigan Hurricanes, Illinois Warriors and the top team from last year's champion PrymeTyme.  Franchize features a pair of 2014 star wings in Mavin Saunders and Joe Burton.  The Hurricanes return with wing Bo Ziegler (#118 Rivals).  Hurricanes were bounced out of the top bracket last year by PrymeTyme.  Will PrymeTyme have another Fred Van Vleet (last year's MVP)?

Pool C is topped by Fury Davis and Bucknell commit Ben Oberfeld.  Heat Reese tops Pool D with Fury Ouse and Comets Stock.  Pool E features Comets Hanson.  Should be very interesting to see what D1 crowd turns out to see 7 footer Connor Voss.  The Wisconsin Jets were champions of the Dakota Showcase.  Guard Tim Wagner leads the Jets.

Duez Henderson's Iowa PNR squad highlights Pool G.  6'8 Forward Rylan Murray has offers from North Dakota, Nebraska Omaha and Central Michigan.    Dakota Pride and Triple Threat could decide pool J.  Heat Ogorek gets our sleeper BYC Elite (NM) in their pool.  Guard John Dawson has been outstanding all year for BYC.  Colorado just offered him.  Pool L closes out the list with a bang.  MN Lockdown and Logan Doyle have WI Starz Black with their center Blake Derickson.  ECI Prospects with NDSU commit AJ Jacobsen also in this pool. 

Other players of note include Taylor Schaefer of the ECI Prospects 16s and elite guard 5'10" Hyron Edwards of Team Indiana/Indiana Elite 15s.  He's #12 in the ESPN 2015 rankings and has offers from Purdue and Indiana.  They're in the PNR 15s super pool.  That game is at 6:20 Thursday night.

A couple of other very nice matchups.  Fury Dixon and Comets Lewis meet up once again in their 16U super pool.  That game is also at 6:20 Thursday.  Back in the 15U bracket, the Cyclones take on tNBA in their pool at 10 AM Friday morning.  tNBA has been off the radar due to conflicting schedules but they get their shot at Alex Illikainen et al.  Last we saw of tNBA was their loss to the very good WI Blizzard-Pronchinske group in the Best Buy Spring Tournament semis.

Heat Biwan 14s step up to 15U with a Schoolers group and SW MN Stars in their pool.  Fury Shelman, MN Phenom and Heat Lesewski also representing the best of MN in 15U.  Also looking forward to taking another look at the MN Warriors and Heat Garvis.  Looking forward to seeing all of the top teams come through Jefferson in all levels which is a change from last year.  I like it.  More of the premier games will be in the activity center which considering the weather is a good choice as well.  Don't expect another power outage though.

July Fashion Police

AAU Coaches will wear just about anything.  Many comments have been made this week on Twitter about some of those items.  So as a public service to our local coaches, I've put them together and provide them there.  Here are some things that Joan Rivers would cringe at. 

Headgear
This isn't baseball and you're not in the sun.  Take off the baseball cap.

Hair Style
If you're sporting a mohawk should any college coach really take your team seriously?

Clothing
Its become acceptable to either dress up, wear practice gear or team gear.  Jorts don't fit into any of these categories.  There's a reason they have a bad name.  Ditch them

Footwear
Flip-flops.  Really?  You can go to the beach or the bar afterwards.  The only known thing about men's feet is that they stink.  Wear shoes please.

Accessories
Heaven forbid somebody would steal your expensive Beats by Dre that you and the entire team have.  But there's no need to have those around your neck during the game.

If you get a T because you couldn't hear a ref tell you "No More" because you had earbuds in, not cool.

Coach yells at his team "don't make me look like a clown".  He's wearing sunglasses which pretty clearly already destroys his message.

July 2012 Open Period Day 3 Results

Bracket play underway in the1st open period, here's how the MN teams stand.

St. Louis (Mullen's High Exposure)
MN Cyclones def Kansas Heat Elite 87-44

Ames (IMBBall part 1)
MN Lockdown and MN Suns Brown both lost their bracket games.

Local (IMBBall part 2)
Howard Pulley White 17s lost 55-43 to All Iowa Attack Moore.  21 pts and 9 rebs for Peter Jok of the Attack.
tNBA 17s def La Crosse YMCA Steger 61-53
Heat Schumann 16s def Iowa Cornsharks 68-63
Howard Pulley Blue 15s def NIB Raptors 58-39.
Howard Pulley White 15s def ND Phenom 59-55

Milwaukee (NY2LA)
Bracket play is set.
15U
Fury Shelman will take on Net Gain in the round of 16.
MN Select takes on Chicago Select in the same quarter of the top bracket.
Heat Lesewski/Bui takes on Schoolers Mueller
Comets Elite will play WI Blizzard Kuranda in a Gold bracket pigtail.

16U
Round of 16
MN Select has a pigtail game with WI Swish for the right to play Ray Allen Select
SW MN Stars will play the winner of SYF and Milwaukee Rebels
Those 2 games are in the same quarter
Fury Grosz will play winner of IA Mavs Uthoff and WI Swing Litscher on the same side of the bracket.
On the opposite side.
Fury Dixon gets winner of WI Blizzard Pop vs ECI Prospects
In the same quarter Comets Elite gets a rematch with MN Warriors (who won a tight one at the Pulley tourney).  Winner will play top WI Blizzard team and then possibly Fury Dixon.

17U
Net Gain takes on ECI Prospects
Magic Elite takes on Ramey
Winner of that plays winner of Fury Davis and S. Dakota Heat.
Staying in that quarter of the draw Select Blue takes on Comets Hanson
Winner of that to play WI Playmakers White vs SW MN Stars winner.
On the other half
MN Select White vs Playground Elite Wilson

In the Gold Bracket
Magic Maroon vs WI Blizzard Thomas to take on WI Shooters/WOTN winner
Comets Stock vs top WI Blizzard to play winnner of IA Mavs Putz vs Fury Newll.

Comets Seevers and Fury Ouse are in the Silver bracket.

Indianapolis (Adidas Invitational)
17U
PNR def Ohio Phenoms 78-64 to finish 2-1 in their super pool.  Reid Travis over 20 points again.  They then beat Texas GCBC Cagers 87-77 in pigtail game to advance to final 32 of Championship bracket

Heat Ogorek lost to MBA Select in the 1st round of the Gold Bracket to finish 2-2.
Heat Reese def Illinois Exclusive to advance to final 16 of Silver Bracket.
Heat Frasier def TN Chosen Few in 1st round Bronze bracket thanks to a Robert Ben buzzer beater.
Heat Altena lost to Q6 All-Stars Elite in 1st round Bronze bracket to finish 0-4.

16U
PNR finished 2nd in their pool and then picked up a very good 3 pt win over Florida Elite to advance to the final 16 of the championship bracket.

Heat Vang had the day off after finishing 2nd in their pool.  They'll play Michigan Mustangs in the Final 16 of the Gold Bracket
Heat Frank finished 0-3 in pool and will play Indy Ice in 1st round of the Bronze Bracket.
MN Glory 0-3 will play Triple Balance in 1st round of the bronze bracket.

15U
MN PNR won their super pool with a 65-60 win over the WI Playground Warriors (where the Ellenson's once played).  They then lost to Indiana Elite Blaze 73-68 in the 1st round of the Championship Bracket.

July 2012 Open Period Day 2

Here are results from 2nd day of play in the July 2012 open period.

IMBBall (Ames)
17U
MN Suns Brown go 2-1 and finish 2nd in their pool.  Only loss was to the All Iowa Attack EYBL team 70-51.  They defeated Iowa Legacy 56-44 and 72-49 over Omaha Crusaders Foster.
MN Lockdown 2-0 to win their pool but lost to All Iowa Attack Moore 62-46 on Wed.  They defeated Omaha Crusaders Woodard 52-44 and All Iowa Attack Jensen 65-60.

Lockdown vs Cornsharks and Suns vs All Iowa Moore in brackets play was not yet posted.

16U
Howard Pulley top 16s go 0-3.  Lost to Omaha Crusaders 67-57, NE Select by 3 and 76-68 to the Iowa Cornsharks.

Heat Select 1-2 to finish 3rd in their pool
MN Lockdown was 1-1 to finish 2nd in their pool.

15U
Howard Pulley Top 15s swept their pool 3-0.  79-57 over IA Legacy, 79-38 over Omaha Crusaders and 56-39 over All Iowa Attack Johnson.
MN Suns Russell 2-1 to be 2nd in their pool.
Howard Pulley White was 0-2 and 3rd in their pool.

Adidas Invitational (Indianapolis)
17U
MN Pump N Run split their 2 games.  63-55 Loss to Team Nashville and 75-57 win over Dallas Mustangs.  Reid Travis 19 and 22 points in those 2 games.

Heat Altena lost to MBA Select 72-62, then lost 70-59 to Tennesse Tigers to finish pool 0-3.

Heat Frasier was swept in their 3 pool games.  They lost to Southern Indiana Spartans 61-55 and S. Texas Irish 64-45

Heat Ogorek split their games during the day.  They beat Club Elite Warriors 81-67.  They lost the pool title game 62-56 to Texas GCBC Cagers.  They finish 2-1 in pool.  Jack Martinek 20 pts in the loss.

Heat Reese fell to Spiece Higher Level 85-82 and beat Team Pro Look Boys 63-55.  They finish 1-2 in pool.  Brendan Taylor was 7-7 from 3 in the 1st half of that Team Pro win.

16U
MN Pump N Run lost to a very good Indiana Elite team 61-38.  They bounced back to defeat Devin Harris Super Stars 79-65 behind 20 and 9 from Paul Friendshuh.

Heat Vang won both of their games to finish 2-1 in pool play.  They beat Indy Jazz 2014 93-60 and Hoop Dreams 73-59.  Jake Knupp 6 3s, 25 pts in that last win.

Heat Frank lost 64-46 to Grand Rapids storm and 64-38 to Select Basketball to start 0-2 in pool.

Glory 16s lost to FIST 68-67 and to Atlanta Celtics 2 58-36 to start 0-2.

15U
MN PNR def CIA Bounce 65-49 and Colorado Hawks 71-51. Marshawn Wilson 2 huge dunks and 18 points in that Hawks game. 

NY2LA (Milwaukee)
17U
Magic Maroon lost to Next Level Basketball by 4
Fury Davis lost by 17 to WI Swing.
Net Gain def Iowa Mavs Putz (max +15)
Magic Elite def Iowa Mavs Green (max +15) and Playground Elite Wilson by 2
WOTN lost to WI Blizzard Kellett (max -15)
Comets Hanson def Colorado Titans by 6 and Playmakers Blue by 9 to finish 2-1 in pool but they can't win the pool even with help.
MN Select White def WI Shooters White 49-41 and def Team NLA-MA by 14.
Fury Ouse lost a couple of heartbreakers by 2 each to WI Starz and Kingdom Hoops Red
Comets Stock lost to top Schoolers team by 16 then def Flint Dream Team by 12.
MN Select Blue def Rockford Wildcats by 5 and WI Ballers Elite by 7
Comets Seevers loses by 4 to WI Blizzard Thomas

16U
MN Warriors def Next Level Basketball 65-62.  Garrett Goetz 37 points (17-17 FTs) to lead the Warriors
Fury Dixon def WI Swing-Litscher 70-67 in 2 OT.  
Fury Grosz def WI Blizzard Popp (max + 15)
MN Select def WI Swing-Smith (max +15)
SW MN Stars 16s def Randolph Boys Club White by 2
Comets Lewis def HLC Buch by 25 to start their pool play.


15U
MN Select def WI Blizzard Thomas by 12
Heat Lesewski def Randolph Boys Club by 3
Net Gain def Kingdom Hoops Red (max +15)
Fury Shelman def Peoria Irish by 4
Comets Elite lost by 2 to WI Blizzard Schneider

July 2012 Open Day 1 Results

Night 1 of the open period is in the books, 3 full days await most of the players.  Here are results from Day 1 of the July 2012 open period.

NY2LA (Milwaukee)
15U
Heat Lesewski/Bui lost to Kingdom Hoops Elite (max -15)
Net Gain lost to WI Blizzard top team (max -15)
Fury Shelman lost to WI Shooters by 3
MN Select lost to Schoolers (max -15)
Comets Elite def WI Swing Smith (max 15)

16U
Playground Elite def MN Warriors 68-66 at the buzzer.

17U
Magic Maroon lost to Kingdom Hoops Elite (max -15)
Fury Davis beat Schoolers 2 (max 15)
Net Gain def Ramey (max 15)
Magic Elite def Iowa Mavs Green by 32
WOTN lost to Milwaukee Spartans (max -15)
Comets Hanson lost by 10 to Green Bay Gunners

Adidas Invitational
16U
Shot Doc def Heat Vang 70-55

17U
Heat Altena lost 61-31 to South Florida Panthers
Heat Frasier lost 65-44 to Team Miami
Heat Ogorek def Southern Select Basketball 51-42
Heat Reese lost 60-48 to Iowa Barnstormers

5 Players to watch in July 2012

With the July recruiting period upon, here are 5 players who's progress I'll be watching this month.


#5) Carson Shanks - Minnesota Select White 17s
The list begins with the big man in the middle.  Select has struggled this spring as has Shanks.  Now Grassroots basketball is definitely not a big man's game so good matchups have been difficult to find.  Witness the bracket game in St. Cloud where Select couldn't find a good lineup to play against a smaller, more athletic Heat Reese team.  That was with or without Shanks on the floor.  Shanks definitely has the skills to perform above the level he played at in the spring.  Will he show that in July?

#4) Anders Broman - Howard Pulley Blue 17s
Broman took his game to another level this spring.  With Tyus Jones out at the Pulley tournament, he showed the ability to run the point.  He also showed quality ability to knock down open jump shots along with his usual scoring prowess.  That garnered him a handful of D1 offers.  The Peach Jam in the middle period is July's biggest stage.  Does he move to yet another level there?

#3) Connor Voss - Minnesota Comets Hanson 17s
Voss is the other big man in the middle on our list.  His story is entirely different.  He sat out a large chunk of the high school season due to injury.  That carried over to him missing the entire April recruiting period as well.  But he's gotten his legs back over the last 2 months and its showed. His performance at the North Dakota camp earned him an offer from the (insert non-offensive NCAA complaint nickname here).  Is he trending toward a July where he breaks through onto a bigger stage?

#2) Reid Travis - Minnesota Pump N Run 17s
The final 2 both fall into the category of "His team will go as far as he takes them".  Reid Travis was the catalyst for the PNR 15s run to the Super 64 title game last year.  For now, he's the 2014 player that has kind of been forgotten about.  The PNR team is his again and needs him to play at a high level.  Does he solidify a high major ranking with his play this month?

#1) Darrion Strong - Minnesota Magic Robertson 17s
I would argue that no single player has been more critical to his team's success than Darrion Strong.  Before joining the Magic, they were struggling to score points and their record (albeit against a difficult schedule) showed it.  It also showed when the Comets trounced the Magic 2 weeks ago with Strong not playing.  Strong joined the Magic in May and has been the single most dominant offensive player I've seen in the last 2 months.  He led the Magic to the Northstar Hoops Report State Championship with a virtuoso performance in the title game and to a runner up finish (double OT loss at the buzzer) at the Great Plains Alliance tournament at the end of the month.  It will be very interesting to see what interest he has after the month is over.

Warming up for Summer

A nice event at Irondale as the MN Heat put on a scrimmage for a group of local teams.  EOTO 15/16s as a team and their 17s, Fury Ouse, Net Gain 15s and 17s.  Plus all the noteworthy Heat teams which makes an event all by itself.  Net Gain played without Rashad Vaughn.  He'll be attending the Reebok Breakout Camp in Philly before rejoining NGS for bracket play at NY2LA this weekend. 

A blinding day as Andre Wallace had his usual bright pink shoes on for NGS.  At least grey halfways goes with pink.  Bremiah Snyder of the Heat pulled out some construction barrel orange shoes that could only make this native Wisconsinite think they'd be better served for a drive during deer hunting season.

Despite those blinding shoe colors, Hamline, St. Mary's and UMD were in the building flying their colors so kids remember this.  Anybody can be watching at anytime.  That's very often overlooked

Overall, a ragged night of play but that's to be expected with these teams having minimal ball together over the last month (outside of the Great Plains Alliance).  But after a couple of weeks of practice, good to have another look and quick warmup prior to the teams heading on the road tomorrow for the 1st of 3 open periods this month.

For more on July, you can checkout my Northstar Hoops Report article on 5 teams to watch this July (read that here).  In addition, come back for my next article here which will be 5 players to watch this July.

Hit the road for July 2012

Yes The Czar is still here.  The NCAA did not sanction me and force me to write under a new name as I haven't had any illegal contact with agents.  Speaking of the NCAA, in years past we'd be right in the middle of the 1st 10 day recruiting period.  Thanks to the same NCAA rule changes that opened up April this year, July has now changed too.  July's recruiting window is now 3 long weekends, 11-15, 18-22 and 25-29.  That's Wednesdays starting at 5 PM and ending at 5 PM on those Sundays.  That 1st period is upon us, here's where Minnesota teams will be.

NY2LA Next Level Invitational (Milwaukee)
15U
Top teams from the Fury, Heat, Select, Comets and Net Gain represent Minnesota in this division.  The Heat Lesewski crew has Pulley tournament champs Kingdom Hoops Elite in their pool.  They'll play at 5:20 on Wednesday.  Net Gain gets a tough draw as well with Best Buy Spring Classic runner-up WI Blizzard-Pronchinske at 7:40 on Wednesday night in their pool.

16U
MN Warriors draw one of the better 16U teams in the country RAS (Ray Allen Select) in their pool.  They'll meet at 4:10 on Friday afternoon.  RAS won the Best Buy Chicago Classic title over Memorial Day.  MN Fury Dixon draws the hard nosed Wisconsin Swing squad in their pool.  MN Fury Grosz also gets a Wisconsin draw with Terry Porter Elite.  MN Select takes on the top WI Blizzard team.  SW MN Stars and MN Comets Elite also representing MN in the 16U division.

17U
The best individual matchup here is Net Gain taking on Milwaukee Rebels in pool play at 3 PM on Thursday.  That's a pair of elite national wings with Rashad Vaughn taking on Kevon Looney.  WOW!  That's #11 (Looney) vs #20 (Vaughn) in the Rivals.com Class of 2014 rankings.  Don't forget about jitterbug point guard Damontrae Jefferson (#76 in the that same ranking) for the Rebels either.  On the next court at the same time, MN Fury Davis draws the loaded WI Swing squad.  That Swing squad features top 100 kids Bronson Koenig (WI commit) at the point and post Luke Fischer (Indiana commit).  Nick Fuller receiving lots of D1 interest for that Swing squad as well.  MN Magic Maroon draws Terry Porter Elite and Kingdom Hoops Elite in their pool.  They'll go up against Marquette commit Deonte Burton in 1 game and UNI commit Ted Friedman in the other.  Comets Hanson opens the tourney with a grudge match against the Green Bay Gunners who knocked them off in the 1st NY2LA tourney at Hopkins in April.  Gunners feature UNI commit Bennett Koch, the 3rd Koch brother to play for the Panthers.  Jake is at UNI now and college fans may remember Adam who was the 2010 Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year.  MN Select White and Carson Shanks take on ECI and recent NDSU commit AJ Jacobsen at 3 PM on Friday.  Fury Ouse takes on the Dakota Showcase champs WI Jets at 11:30 AM on Friday.  Comets Stock takes on Zach Hanson (recent Iowa State and Missouri offers) and the Dakota Schoolers at 9:10 Thursday morning.  WOTN, SW MN Stars, Fury Newell, Select Blue, Comets Seevers and Magic Elite Robertson all in the 17U division as well.

Adidas Invitational (Indianapolis)
The huge Adidas Invitational has Minnesota represented.  Minnesota Pump N Run sends all 3 of their teams.  The Heat send their top 4 17s (Reese, Ogorek, Altena and Frasier) and top 2 16s (Vang and Frank).  Then the surprise entrant, MN Glory 16s.  Glory has gone to the Hoosier Shootout for years.  Their 17s are taking the week off before heading to the Kentucky Hoopfest next week.  The field is loaded with too many big names to mention.  Schedule should be posted soon.

Others
MN Cyclones 15s will be at the Mullen's High Profile Tournament in St. Louis starting play at 6 PM on Friday night.

Quinton Hooker and Akolda Manyang will be in Washington DC for the Nike Skills U camp
Tyus Jones, who just won a gold medal with the USA 17U team in Lithuania, will also be in Washington DC for the Nike Global Challenge.  Pulley site lists him as invited but he's not listed on the Nike rosters.  Kyle Washington listed on those same USA rosters.

Also locally, the IMBBall tournament is in Eagan starting Friday night.  Local teams represented include Grassroots, Pulley White and tNBA in the 17s.  Pulley has both teams in the 16s with Triple Threat and Heat Schumann.  The 15s division has both Pulley teams, Southern MN Elite and MN Suns