The 2022-23 regular season is in the books. Here are my season tallies.
- 162 boys games
- 189 teams from 6 different states (172 Minnesota teams)
- 39 gyms
- 33 of the 40 teams ranked at the end of the season.
Now the playoffs are here. That means its time for all of that viewing to allow me to make a fool of myself. So without further delay, here are the 2023 Better
Than Chalk Predictions.
Once again here are the rules. Any
fool can pick nothing but top seeds (aka chalk) and
claim they were something like 306-13 on their picks. My mission is to
do better than that bracket. I also pick all games at the start of the
playoffs rather than going round by round to increase the challenge. I
don't get any chance to make up for my mistakes by picking day by day.
Not
happy with how I picked your team? Use the hashtag #ShockTheCzar on
twitter and on your locker room/virtual whiteboards to express your
outrage. So without delay,
here we go
Section 4A
Once again section 4A uses ladder seeding. That means 4 tracks with the top 4 seeds getting byes to the quarters. Seeds 5 thru 8 get byes to Thursday. Seeds 9-13get byes to Tuesday. Seeds 14-19 get the famous Monday night pigtails.
Monday pigtails: 14 Eagle Ridge over 19 AFSA, 15 Community of Peace over 18 Lincoln International, 17 Chesterton over 16 Exploration.
Tuesday Round 1: 13 Hope over 12 N Lakes, 14 Eagle Ridge at 11 PACT, 10 Trinity over 15 COPA, 9 United Christian over 17 Chesterton.
Thursday Round 2: 5 Heritage over 13 Hope, 6 CHOF over PACT, 10 Trinity over 7 Avail, 8 W Lutheran over 9 United Christian.
Saturday Qtrs: 1 New Life over 8 W Lutheran, 2 Legacy over 10 Trinity, 3 Liberty over 6 CHOF, 5 Heritage over 4 Metro Schools College Prep.
Tuesday Semis: New Life over Heritage, Legacy over Liberty.
Friday Final (at St. Thomas Academy): New Life over Legacy.
Monday: I'm going to violate my home team rule of pigtails by picking Chesterton over Exploration. Exploration no real size and only 5 guys plus no true home court edge as they move around. Michael Hornecker has a big game to advance. Eagle Ridge and Community of Peace win big in their games.
Tuesday: United Christian blew out Chesterton by 30 in the regular season but Michael Hornecker didn't play. This one is closer but UCA still moves on. Hope no great answer for North Lakes career scoring leader Jonathan Ozment inside but their 5 in 5 out waves will be too much. Trinity over COPA. Eagle Ridge gives PACT a battle but not enough to advance.
Thursday: Heritage, CHOF and W Lutheran move on. But its a rare scenario where I don't FEAR THE RHINO. Tough draw for Avail and I think Trinity's defense moves them thru in a low scoring upset.
Saturday: Heritage wins a style contrast against Metro Schools College Prep. Heritage is too physical on the front line and good enough guards to withstand the MSCP press. CHOF gives Liberty a run in the battle of Lions but the big Liberty front line moves them thru. New Life and Legacy advance without trouble.
New Life and Legacy advance to the final. Aiden Johnson vs the Liberty front line is fun but not sure how Liberty gets enough stops. New Life blew out Legacy over the holidays. I see New Life advancing to state again.
Section 5A (Bonus selections)
3 seed in the east Kaleidoscope had Ogilvie scheduled during the regular season but that got postponed. Both played St. John's Prep this week. Ogilvie won big while the Comets only won by 5. I think Michael Jude puts the Comets thru the 1st round as they'll shoot it well enough at home. I'm also going to take them in the 2nd round over East Central or Braham. Then they bow out in the semis.
Section 4AA
This section uses the same ladder seeding that 4A does. Seeds 9-16 will play opening games. Seeds 5-8 get byes to Thursday. Top 4 seeds byes to the quarters on Saturday.
Tuesday Round 1: Washington over Hmong, Nova over Mounds Park, Twin Cities Academy over Lakes International, Math and Science over Roosevelt.
Thursday Round : Humboldt over Washington, Higher Ground over Nova, St. Croix Lutheran over Twin Cities Academy, St. Croix Prep over Math and Science
Saturday Quarters: Minnehaha over Humboldt, Concordia over Higher Ground, St Paul Academy over St. Croix Lutheran, St. Agnes over St. Croix Prep
Tuesday semis: Minnehaha over St. Agnes, Concordia over St. Paul Academy
Friday final (St. Thomas Academy): Minnehaha over Concordia
Let's have some fun here. Nova has lost at Mounds Park Academy twice but last one was by 2. I think they get over the top this time. Then whoever plays Higher Ground is going to get swamped by their defense. Josh Balami puts all the calculus and physics books on his back to lead Math and Science to a lead at Roosevelt. Its a great draw for Concordia all the way to the final as St. Agnes is on the other side of the bracket. Concordia already beat SPA in the regular season. But Minnehaha is a level above everybody else so unless they go super duper ice cold in the final, the Redhawks advance.
Section 5AA
Th
Round of 16: Holy Family over Ubah, Minneapolis North over Cristo Rey, Maranatha over Providence, Edison over SW Christian, Watertown-Mayer over Brooklyn Center, Breck over HLWW, Rockford over Hiawatha, Blake over Dassel-Cokato. (3/8 AM edit: HLWW and BC were flipped seeds, no pick changes)
Sat Qtrs: Holy Family over Blake, Minneapolis North over Rockford, Maranatha over Breck, Watertown-Mayer over Edison
Wed Semis (STMA): Holy Family over Watertown-Mayer, Minneapolis North over Maranatha
Fri Final (Augsburg): Holy Family over Minneapolis North
In the round of 16, the top 6 seeds move on with no trouble. I like upsets in the 7/10 and 8/9 games. Rockford I think is a bad matchup for Hiawatha so give me Rockford in that game. Blake takes out Dassel-Cokato.
Holy Family and Minneapolis North no problems in the quarters. Maranatha vs Breck will be a very fun battle of Mustangs. MCA wins a higher scoring tight game. Give me Watertown-Mayer to take out Edison. Holy Family moves on easily in the semis. North vs Maranatha is a a quality ranked matchup in the other semi. Give me North there as they matchup well against Maranatha with size and athletes. Holy Family takes North out in the final.
Section 6AA (Bonus selection)
Spectrum gets a rematch at St. Cloud Cathedral in the 8 vs 9 game. Cathedral won by 22 in Cathedral holiday tourney. I think this one is closer for the MCAA champs but ultimately Cathedral gets them again.
Section 3AAA
Wed Qtrs: De La Salle over Como Park, St. Thomas Academy over Harding, South St. Paul over Simley, Two Rivers over Highland Park
Sat Semis: De La Salle over Two Rivers, St. Thomas Academy over South St. Paul
Th Final: De La Salle over St. Thomas Academy
I think Simley uses zone and gets a big game from Zach Jacobson to give South St. Paul a scare. Packers survive and advance. Two Rivers lost by 7 early in the regular at Highland Park and just lost 7 straight tough ones before winning their last game. Then again Highland Park just got beat big by Minneapolis South and the St. Paul City is way down. The 4 vs 5 game is always ripe for a pick so give me Two Rivers here. In the Semis, no problems for De La Salle while St. Thomas Academy edges out their 3rd win over South St. Paul. De La Salle then gets another big game from Nasir Whitlock to move on to state.
Section 4AAA
Wed Qtrs: Totino-Grace over Hill-Murray, Mahtomedi over Fridley, Johnson over Henry, St. Anthony over Columbia Heights
Sat semis: Totino-Grace over St. Anthony, Mahtomedi over Johnson
Th final (at Stillwater): Totino-Grace over Mahtomedi
First round bloodbaths for the top 3 seeds. Yes Henry somehow beat Johnson in their 1st meeting but Govs hammered them in a rematch. Columbia Heights vs St. Anthony should be another high-scoring classic in the 4 vs 5 game. St. Anthony won 2 close high scoring matchups during Tri-Metro play. Heights will keep it close with Randy McClendon (42 in last meeting) but the Huskies advance thanks to their experienced guards being able to handle Heights pressure. The section final will be one of the most anticipated of the 32 section finals. Mahtomedi has enough firepower to hang with the defending AAA champs. I love the Tommy Humphries vs Owen Carlson matchup on the wing. Patrick Bath inside for the Eagles is the difference as Mahtomedi doesn't really have a great answer in the post.
Section 6AAA
Wed Qtrs: BSM over Hutchinson, Orono over AHA, Delano over Mound-Westonka, Richfield over Bloomington Kennedy
Sat Semis: Orono over Delano, BSM over Richfield
Th Final (at Chanhassen): Orono over BSM
Top 3 seeds have no trouble in the quarters. Richfield and Kennedy split 2 very tight games in Tri-Metro play. Richfield with more reliable scoring and home court moves on. The semis are rematches of regular season blowouts. I see no difference here. Then the rubber match in another highly sought section final as BSM and Orono settle it on a neutral court after splitting on home courts. Isaiah Hagen has been terrific all season and Orono has more weapons and experience. BSM has been ahead of schedule with their very talented youth movement so I'll take Orono here in a very close one.
Section 1AAAA
Tues Qtrs: Lakeville N over JM, Farmington over Northfield, Lakeville South over Mayo, Owatonna over Century
Sat Semis: Lakeville N over Owatonna, Farmington over Lakeville South
Fri Final (at Rochester Civic Arena): Lakeville North over Farmington
I like chalk in the quarters but Farmington and Lakeville South can expect a tougher challenge from the Big 9 than you may think in their games. Lakeville North moves on without trouble in the semis. Farmington and Lakeville South in the other semi should be a defensive struggle. The teams split in South Suburban play including a 9 point Farmington win this week at Lakeville South. Farmington has won 6 of last 7, Lakeville South has lost 7 of last 10. Give me Farmington here with home court. Lakeville North then wins the final.
Section 2AAAA
Wed Qtrs: Minnetonka over Chaska, Edina over Waconia, Shakopee over Chanhassen, Eden Prairie over Prior Lake
Sat Semis: Minnetonka over Eden Prairie, Shakopee over Edina
Fri Final: Minnetonka over Shakopee
Fun quarterfinal games here. 8 seed Chaska beat top seed Minnetonka by 3 in their regular season meeting. Tonka gets revenge by double digits here. Edina gets Waconia by double figures again as I don't see a much improved Waconia squad scoring enough. I love the Jalen Langsy vs Max Woods PG battle in the Shako vs Chan rematch. Shako won by 3 in the regular season. Shako wins again in the best game of the 4 quarterfinals. Eden Prairie needed a Luke Rapp buzzer beater to win at Prior Lake in January. Both teams have taken recent lumps against the top of their leagues. I think Eden Prairie wins at home but Prior Lake's size with Ofori and McCollough is a problem.
Edina beat Shakopee in the regular season, but I'm liking Shakopee in the rematch. Eden Prairie had no answers for Tonka in their 2 regular season games so I'll take Tonka again. Minnetonka too much firepower and they win a high scoring final over Shakopee.
Section 3AAAA
Wed Qtrs: Eastview over Hastings, Eagan over Apple Valley, Jefferson over Burnsville, Rosemount over Park.
Sat Semis: Eastview over Rosemount, Jefferson over Eagan
Th Final: Eastview over Jefferson
No
first round surprises. The Jefferson vs Burnsville matchup I find very interesting in the 3 vs 6 game. Jefferson knocked out the Blaze last season and beat them by 22 this season. Jefferson advances but if there's a round 1 upset in this bracket, this is it. In the semis, Jefferson with Daniel Freitag advances in a first one to 40 is the winner defensive struggle. Both teams more than happy to run thru their offense multiple times. Rosemount has struggled this season but they split 2 close games with Eastview this season. Eastview grinds out wins in that semifinal and in the final over Jefferson.
Section 4AAAA
Wed Qtrs: East Ridge over N St. Paul, Cretin-Derham Hall over Tartan, Stillwater over St. Paul Central, White Bear Lake over Woodbury
Sat Semis: East Ridge over CDH, White Bear Lake over Stillwater
Th Final (at Hastings): East Ridge over White Bear Lake
No surprises in the quarters. CDH vs Tartan will be a battle of long possessions and execution.
Love the WBL vs Stillwater semifinal Those teams split the regular season in double digit home wins. Give me WBL at home in a single digit game. E Ridge gets their 3rd win over CDH.
East Ridge wins another close one over White Bear Lake in the final.
Section 5AAAA
Wed Qtrs: Park Center over Spring Lake Park, Maple Grove over Champlin Park, Osseo over Irondale, Mounds View over Roseville.
Tues Semis: Park Center over Mounds View, Maple Grove over Osseo
Fri Final (at Rogers): Park Center over Maple Grove
Mounds View and Roseville split a 2 point game and a 1 point game in Suburban East play. Roseville has played a truckload of close games (7-7 in games decided by 6 or less). Give me Roseville here. The other 3 games no upsets. Park Center no problems in their semi. Maple Grove lost to Osseo in the regular season but Trey Smith has been out for Osseo. While he may be back for this rematch, I'm going to take Maple Grove here. The Crimson just pulled the upset on Park Center. I'm not seeing that in the final.
Section 6AAAA
Tues Qtrs: Wayzata over St. Louis Park, Hopkins over Minneapolis South, Cooper over Washburn, Southwest over Armstrong
Sat Semis: Wayzata over Southwest, Hopkins over Cooper
Tues Final: Wayzata over Hopkins
No
surprises in round 1. Armstrong has struggled down the stretch so Southwest wins that. Lake Conference no problems in the semis. Hopkins youth had no answer for Wayzata in the regular season, they don't in the final either.
Section 7AAAA
Wed Qtrs: Andover over Coon Rapids, Duluth East over Centennial, Cambridge-Isanti over Forest Lake, Blaine over Anoka
Sat Semis (at Princeton): Andover over Blaine, Duluth East over Cambridge-Isanti
Th Final (at Chisago Lakes): Andover over Duluth East
Top 2 seeds move on without trouble, Blaine beats Anoka for a 3rd time. Cambridge-Isanti won a close battle at Forest Lake and they get this win at home. Duluth East size is too much for Cambridge in the semis. Andover goes thru Blaine a 3rd time in the other semi. Too much Ben Kopetzki and Sam Musungu for Andover in the final so Andover advances to state.
Section 8AAAA
Tues Qtrs: Buffalo over Rogers, Moorhead over Sartell, Brainerd over STMA, Bemidji over Elk River
Sat Semis: Buffalo over Bemidji, Brainerd over Moorhead
Th Final (at Neutral Site): Buffalo over Brainerd
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