2024 Better Than Chalk Predictions

The 2023-24 regular season is in the books.  Now the playoffs are here.  That means its time for all of that viewing to allow me to make a fool of myself.  So without further delay, here are the 2024 Better Than Chalk Predictions.

Once again here are the rules.  Any fool can pick nothing but top seeds (aka chalk) and claim they were something like 306-13 on their picks.  My mission is to do better than that bracket.  I also pick all games at the start of the playoffs rather than going round by round to increase the challenge.  I don't get any chance to make up for my mistakes by picking day by day.

Not happy with how I picked your team?  Use the hashtag #ShockTheCzar on twitter and on your locker room/virtual whiteboards to express your outrage.  So without delay, here we go 

Section 4A
Monday Round 1 (seeds 14-19): 14 Parnassus over 19 Lincoln International, 15 Community of Peace over 18 Hmong Academy.  16 St. Paul City over 17 International School.  St. Paul City won the regular season meeting at ISM, they win another close one.  Parnassus and COPA should move on easily.

Wednesday Round 2 (seeds 9-13 enter): 9 Higher Ground over St. Paul City, 10 Hope over Community of Peace, 11 MN Transitions over Parnassus with fun guard play there.  12 Exploration over 13 Chesterton.  I see all 4 incoming teams moving on without trouble.

Thursday Round 3 (seeds 5-8 enter): 5 New Life over Exploration, 6 Liberty over 11 MTS, 7 Trinity over 10 Hope, 8 United Christian over Higher Ground.  As much as I like upsets in this section traditionally, I still don't see any here.  2 of my sleeper picks are together in the 7 vs 10 game.  Big style contrast there as Hope won't be able to play fast against Trinity.  The other 3 I don't see being close.

Saturday Quarterfinals (seeds 1-4 enter): Now the big boys enter at the quarter final stage.  1 Heritage over United Christian, 7 Trinty over 2 CHOF, 3 West Lutheran over Liberty, 5 New Life over 4 Avail.  Every game here is a regular season rematch.  Heritage and West Lutheran move on easily again.  Trinity just won at CHOF to end the regular season and Avail lost a close one in December at New Life. Give me Trinity to pull the upset again here and New Life goes into The Crash Pad and wins another close one.

Tuesday Semifinals: 2 more rematches here in an all old school MCAA final 4.  Heritage won in a blowout so I'll take them to move on over New Life.  West Lutheran took care of Trinity easily in the season opener.  Too much Isaiah Ronning there and West Lutheran moves on.

Fri Final (St. Thomas Academy): Heritage and West Lutheran split the regular season with home court wins.  West Lutheran is 9-2 down the stretch.  Heritage has stumbled slightly recently.  Too many weapons for Heritage and Abu Tarawallie has been a major factor in both games.  Heritage moves on to state.

Section 5A (bonus picks)
North Lakes gets a Monday pigtail game against Mille Lacs.  I think they win that one before they bow out at Upsala.  PACT gets an opening win against Ogilvie in the 4 vs 5 game and then bows out on Saturday to East Central

Section 4AA
The seeding here, oh my.  We can't have coaches vote and come up with this.  Shenanigans like this are usually reserved for sections 4AAAA and 6AAAA.  Head to head section games have to matter otherwise what in the world is the point of playing them.  TCA just won on Friday at Concordia but got seeded lower.  Nova beat Math & Science head to head but got a lower seed.  Mounds Park lost to Concordia by 48 (without a good player but still) and is 2 seeds higher.  St Croix Prep swept Como Park and Highland Park last week but is 2 slots behind Humboldt who went 0-4 against those 2 in St. Paul City play.  For the record, I would have voted the top 4 as is then St. Croix Prep, Humboldt, Twin Cities Academy, Concordia, Mounds Park, Nova, Math & Science, Lakes International and Washington.

Tues Round 1: 12 LILA vs 13 St. Paul Washington.  Following rules of pigtails, I take LILA at home.

Thursday Round 2 (seeds 5-11 enter): 5 St. Paul Humboldt over LILA, 6 Mounds Park Academy over 11 Nova, 7 St Croix Prep over 10 Math and Science, 8 Concordia over 9 Twin Cities Academy.  2 immediate rematches in this part.  Humboldt just beat LILA by 3 at LILA and TCA just won by 7 at Concordia.  Plus Nova gets yet another shot at Mounds Park who beat them by 5 in the season opener at Eagle Ridge.  Humboldt wins their game at home.  Nova gets the good fortune of Mounds Park being 6 (I had them at 9) and will be motivated after 4 straight losses to the Panthers over the last 2 years.  MPA wins a tight one at home.  SCPA takes out Math & Science with size and physical play.  But Josh Balami could carry M&S thru this one as SCPA can struggle to score.  Concordia wins the grudge match.  All 4 should be very competitive

Saturday Quarterfinals (seeds 1-4 enter):  1 St. Paul Academy over 8 Concordia, 2 Minnehaha over St. Croix Prep, 3 St. Croix Lutheran over 6 Mounds Park, 4 St. Agnes over 5 St. Paul Humboldt.  Watch out for that 1 vs 8 game.  Its a rematch of a game from a week ago where Concordia only lost by 7.  SPA wins but it will close.  Minnehaha too much offense for Prep.  SCL wins big in their game.  St. Agnes with a major difference maker of Nolan Davis up front, I'll take them over Humboldt.

Tues Semis: In an all old school Tri-Metro final 4.  SPA over St. Agnes.  SPA blew out St. Agnes in the Harding holiday tourney.  I don't think its another running time game but SPA moves on.  Minnehaha vs St. Croix Lutheran is another clash of styles.  Pace will be key in that one.  St. Croix Lutheran's defense is one that can frustrate Minnehaha in the halfcourt.  Minnehaha moves on.

Fri Final (St. Thomas Academy 8 PM): SPA won the regular season IMAC meeting by 20 at Minnehaha.  SPA size and physical play is a problem for Minnehaha.  I think SPA wins again and advances to state.

Section 5AA
New in section 5AA, they've gone to 4A and 4AA model of low seeds playing early and staggered byes for the top 8 seeds

Monday Round 1 (seeds 9-16): 9 Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted over 16 Brooklyn Center, 10 Rockford over 15 Cristo Rey, 11 Watertown-Mayer over 14 Eagle Ridge, 13 Providence over 12 Hiawatha.  I see HLWW and Rockford moving on.  Watertown-Mayer will get a fight from Eagle Ridge but advance.  Providence beat Hiawatha easily during the regular season.  Kam Solomon will have another big game but can he get enough help?  I don't see it.  Providence wins.

Thursday Round 2 (seeds 5-8 enter): 5 Blake over Providence, 6 Maranatha over Watertown-Mayer 10 Rockford over 7 Dassel-Cokato, 8 Jordan over HLWW.  Blake and MCA move on with no trouble.  Rockford lost 2 tight games to Dassel-Cokato in the regular season, hard to beat a team 3 times and I saw Rockford this season but not D-C.  Why not an upset, give me Rockford here.

Saturday Quarterfinals (seeds 1-4 enter) 1 Breck over Jordan, 2 Minneapolis North over Rockford, 3 Holy Family over Maranatha, 4 SW Christian over Blake.  I don't see much here.  Breck and Mpls North advance in mismatches.  Holy Family and SW Christian won these games big in the regular season, I don't see that changing here.

Wed Semis (STMA): Breck over SW Christian, Minneapolis North over Holy Family.  Minneapolis North blew Holy Family out in the regular season.  They can rotate bigs against Brayden Carlson and their pressure vs the Holy Family guards can be very disruptive.  I love the chess match of SW Christian vs Breck.  Breck is just too good. 

Fri Final (Augsburg): Breck wins a rematch against Minneapolis North.  Just don't see how Minneapolis North scores enough to keep up.

Section 6AA (bonus picks)
MCAA leaders #10AA Legacy and Spectrum are here.  I see them both getting easy Thursday wins.  Sadly that means they would meet at St. John's in the quarters on Saturday (love that travel, can we move that game to Anoka?).  The teams split the regular season.  I think Legacy has a little more firepower so I'm going to pick them in a tight one.  The winner then bows out to top seed and defending state champ, #4 ranked Albany, in the semis.

Section 3AAA
Monday Pigtail: 9 Simley over 8 St. Paul Como Park.  Simley started out the season 2-1 but has only won 2 games since. But 1 of them was a home win against Como Park a week ago.  They held Mason Aarness in check and got a huge game from frosh Tre Lovelace.  Good enough for me.  Violating my rules of pigtails (always take the home team), I think Simley gets it done here.

Wednesday Qtrs: 1 Minneapolis South over Simley, 2 St. Thomas Academy over St. Paul Highland Park, 3 St. Paul Harding over 6 Minneapolis Roosevelt, 4 South St. Paul over 5 Two Rivers.  The top 3 seeds move on easily.  SSP and Two Rivers split their Metro East meetings but the Packers won at Two Rivers by 30 a month ago.  South St. Paul moves on.

Saturday Semis:  Minneapolis South over South St. Paul, St. Paul Harding over St. Thomas Academy.  I think Minneapolis South matches up well and moves on.  St. Paul Harding is a bad style matchup for St. Thomas Academy so let's go upset there.

Thursday Final: Minneapolis South over St. Paul Harding.  The Joe Hyser cinderella season continues and its interesting that they'd get to do in a rematch vs Harding.  Their 1st meeting had to be called off due to the Romero Walker injury.  I'd expect a fun fast paced game there but South gets it done.

Section 4AAA
Monday pigtail: 9 Minneapolis Edison over 8 Minneapolis Henry. Henry has had to forfeit games over the last couple weeks.  So I'm not even sure the game happens.  The teams split the regular season.  Too much Deidrick Taylor for Edison.  I like the upset here.

Wednesday Qtrs: 1 De La Salle over Edison, 2 Columbia Heights over Hill-Murray, 3 St. Paul Johnson over 6 St. Anthony, 4 Mahtomedi over 5 North St. Paul.  I like the top 3 seeds here.  Bad style matchup for the 5 and 6 seeds here.  The 4/5 matchup is fun as teams split with wins on each other's home courts this season.  Mahtomedi just won the meeting this week, I think they get another one here.

Saturday Semis: De La Salle over Mahtomedi, Columbia Heights over Johnson.  The Heights vs Johnson game will be a real intense guard battle.  Johnson with their size and guards to pressure Jency Davis matches up very well.  Heights survives a close one.

Thursday Final (Stillwater): The 3rd meeting between Tri-Metro rivals.  This should be one of the best section final games out there.  De La Salle gets the win in a classic.

Section 5AAA
I saw everybody here so let's pick this section too.

Tuesday 8:01 PM Qtrs: 1 Totino-Grace over 8 Zimmerman, 2 Fridley over 7 Princeton, 3 Big Lake over 6 St. Francis, 4 Monticello over 5 Becker.  Top 2 games are bloodbaths.  Big Lake split 2 close games with St. Francis and get another close win here.  Monticello stole the 4 seed with 2 head to head wins over Becker.  I wanted to take Becker here but their youth and those 2 wins gives me pause.  Chalk in round 1.

Fri Semis (STMA): Totino-Grace over Monticello, Fridley over Big Lake.  TG moves on in a rout.  Fridley gets a test but survives and advances.

Th Final: (STMA): Totino-Grace over Fridley.  Another fun travel scenario, can we move the game up Hwy 65 to Blaine?  TG no problems here either.

Section 6AAA
Wed Qtrs: 1 BSM over 8 Kennedy, 2 Delano over 7 Holy Angels, 3 Orono over 6 Cooper, 4 Richfield  over 5 Mound-Westonka.  I see the top 3 seeds moving on easily.  The 4 vs 5 game is a dandy.  CJ Armstrong went for 40 when Richfield won by 1 at Mound.  Richfield survives in a game that comes down to the final minute.  Zavier Hayes is a major X-factor here for Richfield.  When he's got it going, the Spartans are a tough out.

Sat Semis: BSM over Richfield.  Richfield beat De La Salle twice who beat BSM.  So much for that.  Jaleel Donley and CJ Armstrong on display is a major thrill.  I'll still take Benilde here but this one will be tight and expect a big day from Armstrong.  Hayes vs Jalen Wilson and/or Jayden Daisy is the real matchup to keep an eye on.

Delano won at Orono just before Christmas and this rematch should be absolute dynamite.  Player matchup: Nolan Groves vs Will Strandemo and Max Iverson.  Check.  Coaching chess match here between Terry Techam and Barry Wohler.  Check.  Next door rivals.  Check.  Delano at home makes enough shots to win despite a big game from Brady Wooley inside for Orono.

Th Final: Benilde seemed to play every other notable AAA team this year but they didn't face Delano.  I think BSM struggles to get stops.  Though they're improved on offense, they'll still have their usual difficult moments on offense too.  Though that's not as big a deal here as Delano doesn't really like to defend.  Jalen Wilson is a major problem for Delano to stop.  If it becomes a back and forth between the Delano guards and Jaleel Donley, that's to Delano's advantage.  I'll take Delano to advance out of the class AAA section of death.

Section 1AAAA
Tuesday Qtrs 8:01 PM: 1 Lakeville N over 8 New Prague, 2 Farmington over 7 Rochester JM, 3 Lakeville S over 6 Rochester Mayo, 4 Rochester Century over Owatonna.  Lakeville North had no problems with New Prague in their holiday tournament, no change here.  Farmington completes the Rochester trifecta by beating John Marshall.  Lakeville South no issues in their game either.  Owatonna won at Century but then got blown out by Century at home.  Give me Century to advance.

Saturday semis: Lakeville N over Century.  Farmington over Lakeville S.  Love the Jack Robison vs Shaun Wysocki and Ricky Wengert vs Matt Drake matchups in that Lakeville N game.  North too deep here.  Farmington absolutely boatraced Lakeville South by 40 at home then lost by 2 on the road.  Farmington wins at home.

Fri final (Rochester Civic Arena): These teams split their South Suburban games in the regular season with road wins.  Farmington's size and physicality is tough to match but the hardnosed style of Lakeville N is a good fit to match it.  Last year's all Lakeville final was a grinder and I expect the same here.  Its section 1AAAA and Lakeville North so I can't bet against coach Oxton here.  Give me the Panthers to advance again.

Section 2AAAA
Wed Qtrs: 2 Shakopee over 7 Chaska, 3 Waconia over 6 Chanhassen, 4 Eden Prairie over 5 Prior Lake.  Shakopee blew out Chaska in the regular season and Waconia just blew out Chanhassen last week.  No changes there.  Hard fall for Chanhassen to 6 as they were looking at a possible 3 seed as recently as a week ago, but they've fallen apart since the injury to Max Woods.  Eden Prairie beat Prior Lake in the regular season at home, I'll take that again.

Saturday Semis (12 PM): 1 Minnetonka over 4 Eden Prairie, 2 Shakopee over 3 Waconia.  Minnetonka put up 102 and 94 on Eden Praiire in the regular season.  Keep an extra scoreboard and operator on hand as Tonka advances.  Shakopee beat Waconia by 9 in early December.  Waconia willing to get up and down and score more than you'd think from a Dan Rubischko team. Will Kirsch vs Jalen Langsy will be fun to watch.  Shakopee too many shooters and they'll advance.

Thursday Final: Another fun matchup of point guards with Andy Stefonowicz and Langsy going at it in this rematch.  Tonka won 3 weeks ago at home by 2 pts but that was without Jordan Cain.  He's the real problem matchup and difference maker here as he's returned from injury.  Minnetonka moves on to state again.

Section 3AAAA
Wed Qtrs: 1 Eagan over 8 Jefferson, 2 Apple Valley over 7 Burnsville, 3 Park over 6 Eastview, 4 Rosemount over 5 Hastings.  Eagan's defense will really limit Jefferson.  Apple Valley beat Burnsville twice but the last meeting was a 3 point game at AV.  Eagles survive and advance.  Park holds off Eastview despite a big night from Jon Mekonnen.  Rosemount wins the battle of Hwy 42 over Hastings.

Fri Semis: Eagan over Rosemount.  Rosemount is 3-1 against the top 2 seeds here as they split with Eagan and swept AV.  But Eagan won the last meeting by 17 after losing the 1st meeting before Christmas by 3.  Eagan advances here.  In the other semi, give me Park to advance over Apple Valley.  I like their guard play in this matchup and AV is limited offensively.

Th Final: Expect a low scoring affair here.  I think Eagan wins the battle on the boards and the game.

Section 4AAAA
Wed Qtrs: 2 East Ridge over 7 White Bear Lake, 3 Tartan over 6 Woodbury, 5 Stillwater over 4 St. Paul Central.  East Ridge and Tartan should move on easily.  In the 4 vs 5 game, Stillwater beat Woodbury twice while Central lost to Woodbury on opening night.  Stillwater also higher margins in wins over Mahtomedi and Duluth East.  Give me the Ponies in an upset here.

Sat Semis: 1 CDH over Stillwater, East Ridge over Tartan.  CDH no problems with Stillwater.  East Ridge is the hottest team in AAAA right now winning 15 in a row.  Charlie Bern and Charlie Theis vs Elijah Barrett is a matchup to watch there.  Ultimately Tartan doesn't have enough offense here.  East Ridge moves on.

Th Final: East Ridge lost at CDH back in December but won the last meeting by 2.  East Ridge still had a couple guys out in the first meeting too.  3 conference champs in this section, but East Ridge has long thought to be favorite when healthy.  Very entertaining matchup of star sophs Ced Tomes and JoJo Mitchell in that one.  This is the year the Raptors make it over the top.  East Ridge moves on.

Section 5AAAA
Wed Qtrs: 1 Park Center over 8 Irondale, 2 Maple Grove over 7 Roseville, 3 Osseo over 6 Champlin Park, 5 Spring Lake Park over 4 Mounds View.  Top 2 seeds no problems.  Osseo held Preston Thielke to 12 points in the 1st meeting and won by 9.  They win a closer than expected game.  Mounds View beat Spring Lake Park by 1 at home in December.  Brock Remme has been a monster for Spring Lake Park.  Eli Roe has been on a hot streak for Mounds View.  Spring Lake Park is the 1 team nobody wanted to see in this section, give me the Panthers here.

Fri Semis:  Park Center over Spring Lake Park, Osseo over Maple Grove.  Spring Lake Park won the regular season game by 1 point but that was at Spring Lake Park.  Park Center at home moves on.  Osseo and Maple Grove split 2 games.  Maple Grove won by 1 at home and Osseo won by 5 at their place.  Both games were in the 50s so this will be a struggle.  De'Mari Larkins vs Henry Stang at the point guard spot definitely the matchup of note there.  They'll get their stats but 2nd guys will be the key.  Keegan Harney and Gannon McGuire for MG, Temi Denado and Ty Swanson for Osseo.  Give me Osseo here.  I think they can apply a touch more defensive pressure which is something that can bother Maple Grove and offensively they can get some inside options that Maple Grove doesn't have.

Th Final (Rogers): Park Center over Osseo.  Throw out the records in this district rivalry.  Park Center won by 1 at Osseo at the end of January.  Chiang Ring has been out for a while for the Pirates and that's a huge difference.  He didn't play in that first meeting.  But Park Center locks in defensively, they are still really scary even without him on the back end to swat away mistakes.  They'll advance in another tight one.

Section 6AAAA
Wed Qtrs: 2 Hopkins over 7 St. Louis Park, 3 Minneapolis Washburn over 6 Minneapolis SW, 4 Edina over 5 Armstrong.  Southwest only lost by 2 at Washburn in their last rivalry meeting a month ago.  If Liam Farniok gets going look out but he'll need help.  Washburn wins a close one.  Then an old 4 vs 5 favorite of mine that may have been the start of the #ShockTheCzar hashtag.  Edina vs Armstrong in the first meeting of Jon Bryant vs his old school.  Edina moves on with their defense holding Armstrong down.

Fri Semis: 1 Wayzata over 4 Edina.  2 Hopkins over 3 Washburn.  Edina gave Wayzata 2 tough games in the regular season but Wayzata will advance here.  Kyle Jorgensen size vs the speed of the Hopkins backcourt.  Washburn is good defensively but will have their hands full here.  Kyle Jorgensen will need to absolutely dominate the paint if the Millers want to advance.  Royals move on.

Tues Final: Another classic section final between Wayzata and Hopkins, how fitting.  Hopkins won by 11 at home and then lost by 1 at Wayzata.  I'm going to call another Jackson McAndrew Mr Basketball moment for the win.

Section 7AAAA
Wed Qtrs: 1 Forest Lake over 8 Duluth East, 2 Coon Rapids over 7 Centennial, 3 Anoka over 6 Blaine, 4 Andover over 5 Cambridge-Isanti.  In the brotherly battle, keep an eye on this 1 vs 8 game.  Forest Lake won the regular season meeting at home by 4.  Forest Lake wins but closer than you may think for a 1 seed.  Coon Rapids wins their rematch with Centennial.  Blaine and Anoka split their regular season meetings with the winner putting up 93 at home in each.  Anoka is the home team, give me them in a run and gun game.  Andover's guard play will be the difference as they take out Cambridge.

Sat Semis (Princeton 2 and 4 PM): My bracket needs chaos so here we go.  4 Andover over 1 Forest Lake.  Andover won the regular season meeting at Forest Lake by 1. Coon Rapids and Anoka split their meetings on home courts.  Coon Rapids won at home on Friday but Anoka was up 7 at half.  I'm going to take Anoka here.  Dre Ellis, Peyton Podany and Trey Borchers as good guards against the Coon Rapids defense is my difference in this one.

Th Final (Princeton): Love me another rivalry game for a section title.  Anoka has 2 wins over Andover this season including a 1 pt win at Andover in their last meeting almost 2 months ago.  But Luke Dehnicke has been really good on the front line for Andover since then.  Coin flip game.  Andover has been the winner the last 2 years.  Give me Andover to make it 3.

Section 8AAAA
Speaking of chaos, how about this bracket. Expect this section to make or break my picks.  All about matchups here.

Mon Pigtail: 8 Elk River beat 9 Sartell by 2 at their place in the Granite City tourney.  Now they get the home game.  Elks advance.

Wed Qtrs:  1 Rogers over Elk River, 2 STMA over 7 Bemidji, 3 Buffalo over 6 Brainerd, 4 Sauk Rapids-Rice over 5 Moorhead.  Another 1 vs 8 game to keep an eye on.  Elk River lost this rivalry game by 1 pt and then 2 pts.  Rogers barely moves on.  STMA moves on over Bemidji.  3 Buffalo lost by 1 at 6 Brainerd at the end of January.  Bison win the grudge match at their place.  Its a dangerous Brainerd squad with wing Luke Diem and PG Eli Hoelz.  The 4 vs 5 game is a rematch of what Ryan James called one of the greatest games he's seen.  Moorhead won 105-103 in 2OT at The Hive in Perham in mid-January.  Another grudge win on home court as SRR moves on.

Sat semis: Give me Sauk Rapids-Rice over Rogers.  SRR beat Buffalo big who beat Rogers big is the logic.  In the other semi, STMA and Buffalo split 2 1 possession games.  STMA's physical play can be a problem for Buffalo.  Another rivalry game where you can throw the records out.  Give me STMA in another 1 possession game.

Th Final (Neutral Site): Sauk Rapids-Rice over STMA.  Sauk Rapids-Rice won the regular season meeting by 4 at home. Its another matchup that I like.  Jeremiah Johnson vs Keller Hanson at a guard spot is a fun matchup. Expect a very tight game there.