08-09 Metro AAAA section previews

This is part 2 in my series previewing and predicting the metro sections. In part 3, a look at the big boys in class AAAA.

Part 1: Sections 4A and 4AA
Part 2: Sections 3AAA, 4AAA and 6AAA

Section 2AAAA
Quarterfinals: 3/11 (High Seed)
Semifinals: 3/14 at Hopkins
Section Championship: 3/20 at Hopkins

Teams to beat: Eden Prairie, Edina
Contenders: Jefferson, Shakopee

Predictions:
Quarterfinals: Eden Prairie, Chaska, Edina, Jefferson
Semifinals: Eden Prairie, Edina
Section champion: Eden Prairie

Section Thoughts: The Richfield vs Jefferson game will be all about pace. If Richfield can speed the game up they'll be fine. But Jefferson won't let them do that and Moses Alipate is the best inside player in this one. Chaska vs Shakopee should be a rivalry game but they didn't play this season. Shakopee doesn't have enough weapons and Chaska has plenty plus the experience of the Lake Conference schedule. Eden Prairie has to win this section at some point after all the success they've had. Its a good game but I think Eden Prairie's defense will hold Edina's guards down.

Section 3AAAA
Quarterfinals: 3/11 (High Seed)
Semifinals: 3/17 at St. Olaf
Section Championship: 3/20 at St. Olaf

Teams to beat: Lakeville North
Contenders: Eastview, Burnsville

Predictions:
Quarterfinals: Lakeville North, Lakeville South, Burnsville, Eastview
Semifinals: Lakeville North, Eastview
Section champion: Eastview

Section Thoughts: AV barely won at home 2 weeks ago, I think Lakeville South pulls the 4 vs 5 upset in a very good game. Eastview knocked off Burnsville both times and Lakeville North in the last meeting. I like the Lightning here as they finished up 7-3 despite a bad loss to Rosemount to end the regular season. If Burnsville shoots it well, they're very dangerous.

Section 4AAAA
Quarterfinals: 3/13 (High Seed)
Semifinals: 3/17 at St. Paul Arlington
Section Championship: 3/20 at St. Paul Arlington

Teams to beat: Henry Sibley
Contenders: Tartan

Predictions:
Quarterfinals: Henry Sibley, Stillwater, Central, Tartan
Semifinals: Henry Sibley, Tartan
Section champion: Henry Sibley

Section Thoughts: Stillwater defeated CDH by 70-65 scores in both games and the teams just played to end the season. Stillwater and their juniors have won 11 of 13 to end the season while CDH and their juniors have stumbled home. This could be a preview of the top 2 teams in the league next year. Woodbury at Central will be fun to watch but Central has too much inside. I expect a big night from Jordan Larson there. Sibley has already blown out Tartan twice, I can't see anything different in the section final.

Section 5AAAA
Quarterfinals: 3/11 (High Seed)
Semifinals: 3/17 at Rogers
Section Championship: 3/20 at Rogers

Teams to beat: Cooper, Osseo
Contenders: Mounds View

Predictions:
Quarterfinals: Cooper, Champlin Park, Mounds View, Osseo
Semifinals: Cooper, Osseo
Section champion: Cooper

Section Thoughts: Centennial lost 4 out of 5 down the stretch including a bad blowout loss to Elk River. Then again, the Elks finished the season by blowing out Champlin Park. The Rebels finished 4-5 after a 12-5 start. Very evenly matched teams, but I'll take Champlin Park at home. Watch out for that 3 vs 6 game with Roseville at Mounds View. Roseville won at home by 2 and lost by 7 at Mounds View with Mike Muscala putting up 36. Even if Mounds View gets past that game, I can't see how they deal with Sam Dower. Cooper has the same team that beat Osseo last year and Osseo isn't as good as they were last year so I'll take Cooper to win the best AAAA section final out there.

NOTE: for these last 2 sections the MSHSL site doesn't have the brackets posted so these are educated guesses

Section 6AAAA
Quarterfinals: 3/10 (Top 2 seeds, Hopkins and Wayzata)
Semifinals: 3/13 at Osseo
Section Championship: 3/17 at Osseo

Teams to beat: Hopkins
Contenders: Wayzata

Predictions:
Quarterfinals: Hopkins, Minnetonka, Wayzata, Armstrong
Semifinals: Hopkins, Armstrong
Section champion: St. Louis Park! (NOT, just seeing if you're paying attention), Hopkins

Section Thoughts: I'm interested to see Minnetonka and what they're doing to get Cole Stefan some more looks. They'll have no answer for Kevin Thompson of North in that 4 vs 5 game, but I think Stefan and Nick Latzke combine for double-digit triples in this one. I just have a feeling that Armstrong gets it done on a neutral court against Wayzata with their shooters. This section is all about Hopkins, but with the Star Trib article and Hopkins putting up 119 on Armstrong to end the season, there's more to a Hopkins/Armstrong final than might meet the eye.

Section 7AAAA
Quarterfinals: 3/13 (High Seed)
Semifinals: 3/17 at Elk River
Section Championship: 3/21 at Elk River

Teams to beat: Forest Lake, Blaine
Contenders: Cambridge-Isanti

Predictions:
Quarterfinals: Forest Lake, Blaine, Cambridge-Isanti, Andover
Semifinals: Forest Lake, Blaine
Section champion: Forest Lake

Section Thoughts: Not sure what the 3-7 seeds here will be, but Forest Lake is clearly the 1 seed and Blaine has more talent than anybody else in the section. Coon Rapids finished 2-9 but they have a couple of scorers who are dangerous. Cambridge-Isanti went 1-4 against the section including losses to Blaine, Andover, St. Francis and lowly Anoka. Duluth East has Dyami Starks and a future star in frosh Johnny Woodard. They took Forest Lake to double OT earlier in the year. Very open section.

08-09 Metro AAA section previews

This is part 2 in my series previewing and predicting the metro sections. If you missed part 1 on section 4A and 4AA, you can read that here. In part 2, a look at sections 3AAA, 4AAA and 6AAA.

Section 3AAA
Quarterfinals: 3/11 (High Seed)
Semifinals: 3/17 at Blaine
Section Championship: 3/20 at Blaine

Team to beat: Spring Lake Park
Contenders: Columbia Heights, Minneapolis Henry

Predictions:
Quarterfinals: Spring Lake Park, Minneapolis Henry, Fridley, Columbia Heights
Semifinals: Spring Lake Park, Columbia Heights
Section champion: Columbia Heights

Section Thoughts: Minneapolis Henry lurks here but they haven't played well since Jordan Hughes returned so I can't pick them over Spring Lake Park in the semis as much as I'd like to. Columbia Heights is the pick since they beat Fridley twice and won the last meeting with Spring Lake Park. Not to mention I'm not a fan of how Spring Lake Park has played in big games. They revolve too much around Shaun Jensen which I think hurts them and they get nothing in the post which is nice for Columbia Heights. Beware of that Fridley vs St. Anthony game in the 3 vs 6 matchup. When these teams met before Christmas, St. Anthony frustrated the heck out of Isaiah Thomas with a box and 1. I would almost guarantee you'll see this again.

Section 4AAA
Quarterfinals: 3/13 (High Seed)
Semifinals: 3/17 at St. Paul Central
Section Championship: 3/20 at St. Paul Central

Team to beat: Johnson
Contenders: Mahtomedi

Predictions:
Quarterfinals: Johnson, Hill-Murray, Arlington, Mahtomedi
Semifinals: Johnson, Mahtomedi
Section champion: Johnson

Section Thoughts: Hill-Murray started 8-3 before losing 13 of 15 to end the season. But they hammered Highland Park 74-42 on December 12 so I'm thinking this will be one of the least competitive 4 vs 5 games out there. Johnson is the hands down favorite to win the section. Arlington is more talented but Mahtomedi so that game could be interesting.

Section 6AAA
Quarterfinals: 3/11 (High Seed)
Semifinals: 3/14 at Concordia-St. Paul
Section Championship: 3/19 at Concordia-St. Paul

Team to beat: Washburn
Contenders: Waconia, DeLaSalle, Benilde-St. Margaret's, Delano

Predictions:
Quarterfinals: Washburn, Benilde-St. Margaret's, De La Salle, Holy Angels
Semifinals: Washburn, Holy Angels
Section champion: Washburn

Section Thoughts: A very difficult section here with controversy surronding the seedings. Holy Angels is playing way above their seed right now and they were beating Waconia by double-digits in the regular season meeting. De La Salle can't score, especially without AJ Barker. I think they survive Orono, but not AHA. Delano will come out determined to prove they earned a home game, but Benilde will be too much in one of the best 4 vs 5 games out there. Let's hope that De La Salle and Waconia don't meet in the 2nd round as watching that will be worse than having teeth pulled. 1st team to 30 points wins (if either gets that far).

08-09 Section 4A and Section 4AA playoff preview

This is the 1st in a 3 part series of playoff previews. We'll start with section 4A and section 4AA.

Section 4A (at high seed unless noted)
Playin Games: 3/10
Round of 16: 3/12
Quarterfinals: 3/14
Sub-Section Finals: 3/17 at Heritage
Section Championship: 3/20 at Holy Angels

Team to beat: Minnesota Transitions
Contenders: SW Christian, Maranatha

Sub-section Predictions:
Playin Games: Math & Science over Liberty Classical, AFSA over St. Paul Prep, Bethany over Ascension, 4 Directions over International School
Round of 16: MN Transitions, CHOF, New Life, Spectrum, Maranatha, Heritage, PACT, SW Christian
Sub-section semifinals: MN Transitions, New Life, Maranatha, SW Christian
Sub-section champions: MN Transitions, SW Christian
Section champion: MN Transitions

Section Thoughts: There's MTS and then everybody else in this section. The only team with a remote chance of knocking them off is SW Christian with Caleb Palkert. But SW Christian will have to get past MCA and PACT. But this isn't your brother's MCA team. They may be 21-5, but they're nothing like the teams they've had in the past. If SW Christian can Palkert enough touches they can beat anybody in this section. MCA gets the other contender nomination as Jeff Wall is arguably the top coach in the section. CHOF has their hands full with St. Agnes in the east 4 vs 5 game despite a regular win over the Aggies as Cole Piepkorn played in that game and won't be available. The health of Nate Fiscus is also an issue. I like New Life's experience and Robbie Anderstrom to upset Spectrum (who frankly should be in the west sub-section).

Section 4AA (at high seed unless noted)
Playin Games: 3/9 and 3/10
Round of 16: 3/12
Quarterfinals: 3/14
Sub-Section Finals: 3/17 at Holy Angels
Section Championship: 3/20 at Holy Angels

Teams to beat: St. Bernard's, Minnehaha Academy
Contenders: None

Sub-section Predictions:
Playin Games: Roosevelt over Providence, Trinity over Dunwoody
Round of 16: Concordia, Minnehaha, St. Croix Lutheran, Jordan, Breck, Edison, Holy Family
Sub-section semifinals: St. Bernard's, Minnehaha, Jordan, Holy Family
Sub-section champions: St. Bernard's, Holy Family
Section champion: St. Bernard's

Section Thoughts: The east sub-section is really what this is about as you have 2 of the best in AA there. St. Bernard's and Minnehaha are at another level. Holy Family and Jordan split in their 2 meetings, I take Holy Family as I think their tough schedule helps them and they've been here before. Edison over Brooklyn Center is my upset as they've played close games without wins. Minnehaha will be jacked up and really prepared for the game with St. Bernard's but I don't know how they handle the pressure from the Bulldogs that was a problem in the 1st matchup.

Class AAA and AAAA outstate section predictions

This is the 3rd and final installment of my outstate section predictions. If you missed the small school predictions, use these links.

• Read the Class A predictions here
• Read the Class AA predictions here

Now on to the big schools.

Class AAA

Section 1: This will be a interesting section to watch with Austin having a very good year, Connor O'Brien and Danny Geiger being a formidable duo at New Prague and the highest power ranking of the group (but 3rd best record) goes to always tough St. Thomas Academy. 3 teams, 3 leagues, always a dilemma. New Prague hammered Austin by 25 earlier in the year. I'll take New Prague to beat both teams on their way to the section title as I'm rooting for the heart-wrenching story of them winning one for their fallen coach. No Jake Syzmanski for STA really hurts their cause against New Prague as they could use his defense on Geiger. Geiger is the straw that stirs the drink in their dribble-drive motion.

Section 2: In a word, brutal. Any of the top 4 seeds could win it, but Mankato West is on another level so I'll take them. The semifinals will be must see games with Worthington, Marshall and Willmar.

Section 5: Very open section. Monticello likely the #1 seed with their 18 point win over Annandale last night. But they've lost to Rogers and have to face the Royals again to end the season. Both wins over STMA are close and STMA has 2 close wins over Rogers. Burke Lendl and Tony Cain Rogers give Rogers an inside advantage but tourney time means good guard play which STMA and Monticello both have. STMA made it last year, let's take them again behind the point guard play of Jason Dehmer and shooting from Kevin Nelson.

Section 7: Cloquet got blown out by Grand Rapids to start the season and then thanks to 18 and 14 from Chad Calcaterra only lost by 5 last night at home to the Thunderhawks. I'd love to see Cloquet pull the upset to see Calcaterra make a state trip and hear the name RaRa Jones, but that has to wait a year. Grand Rapids has too much experience and Cloquet's guards aren't up to par yet.

Section 8: The easy pick here is Apollo and for good reason as Andre Garth is on another level. Add in a talented group of sophs and this should be a no-brainer. But watch out for Little Falls, they've lost 2 tough ones to Apollo this season and remember that this is also what happened last season when Little Falls pulled the 62-60 upset.

Class AAAA

Section 1: Winona is on fire right now and they're no better than 4th in line right now. Farmington, Owatonna and Northfield are all going to be tough outs. Looking like a dynamite semifinal rematch between Owatonna and Northfield. Farmington on fire right now winning 12 of 13 after a 6-5 start (including a close loss at Owatonna). I like Owatonna here as they have the most pieces and the toughest matchup in the section, Kyle Melcher. But they'll probably have to get thru a Northfield team that already beat them this season.

Section 8: St. Cloud Tech looks like an obvious choice but hold the phone. Buffalo has won 17 of 18 and that loss was to Cooper after being up 17 with 10 minutes left. But they went 1-5 vs the Northwest Suburban before that including a 52-41 loss to my sleeper in the section, Maple Grove. The Crimson have beaten Grand Rapids and Osseo (rematch tonight) and played Henry Sibley and St. Paul Johnson very tough in the Bethel Holiday Tournament. MG is tough inside with Josh Pedretti and Brett Torrence amongst the group of bodies up front and they have solid guard play from Alex Geisenhoff and Matt Christenson. I think they beat Buffalo again in the 2 vs 3 semifinal and give Tech major heartburn before bowing out to clutch play down the stretch from Nate Wolters.

Class AA outstate section predictions

If you missed part 1 of my 3 part series on outstate section predictions, you can read my class A predictions here. Part 2 covers the class AA outstate sections.

Class AA
Section 1: Plainview-Elgin-Millville has to be the favorite and I'll pick them for state. The west half should be very interesting. Yes #1 seed Rochester Lourdes beat #2 Stewartville twice, but I think Stewartville comes out of that subsection.

Section 2: Blah. This team would be a #8 team at state if AA were seeded. Give me the #2 seed out of the east Byron to win this section.

Section 3: I think there's plenty of illusion in this section as I see good records with weak schedules. Martin County West is the favorite in the south. Give me Minnesota Valley Lutheran and that partially because I missed out on the great St. Croix Lutheran vs MVL game earlier in the year.

Section 5: Sibley East has to be the pick, but watch out for Norwood-Young America who just beat Sibley East last week. HLWW has beaten Pierz once so I'll take them in the north half.

Section 6: I'll take Breckenridge after they survive a tough subsection with Morris and Staples-Motley. Albany has won 16 of 17 on the other side including 2 over section and conference rival (and Defending State Champ) New London-Spicer. I'll take Albany on the other side.

Section 7: Mora could be dangerous in the Braham and Moose Lake/Willow River half. These 3 teams went 1-1 in round robin play. In the other half, Virginia and Mesabi East split 2 close regular season games. The rubber match will determine that subsection. Give me Mesabi East to beat Braham again this season and break the Bombers streak of state trips.

Section 8: Easiest pick of these as Pelican Rapids is on another level from most teams in AA. Pequot Lakes handed Crosby-Ironton 1 of their 3 losses, that looks like a very good subsection final on the other side. UND recruit Brandon Brekke lurks in the Pelican Rapids half for East Grand Forks.

Class A outstate section predictions

Next weekend I'll go thru the 11 metro sections that I pay attention to in detail. But the southern part of the state kicks off this week. Therefore, as a service to ignorance everywhere, I'm starting a 3 part series with my outstate predictions. We'll take care of 7 sections at a time starting with 7 class A sections.

Class A
Section1: This should come down to Spring Grove vs Bethlehem Academy. Bethlehem reminds me of all the years that Maranatha made the section final but didn't win. I think this is the year. Give me Bethlehem.

Section 2: Also straightforward with Cedar Mountain/Comfrey on 1 side and Granada-Huntley-East Chain on the other. I'm taking CMC here as I think they've faced a better schedule and that will help them in this one.

Section 3: Adrian lost a couple of close ones to Ellsworth and its tough to beat a team 3 times. Whoever wins the subsection goes to state. I'll take Ellsworth via their experience.

Section 5: This will come down to the rubber match in the west subsection between Bertha-Hewitt and Sebeka. Sebeka won the last meeting at home handly after a 3 point loss on the road. I'll take Sebeka.

Section 6: Winner will come out of the north. I'll take Park Christian but watch out for Ada-Borup and Norman County East.

Section 7: Chisholm by default

Section 8: This section will be interesting. Kittson County Central is dangerous in the west. I'm going out on a limb here. Give me Red Lake here.

Coming tomorrow 7 Class AA outstate predictions followed by AAA and AAAA later in the week.