The 2025-26 regular season is in the books. Now the playoffs are here and its time for the best 2 weeks in basketball, section play. That means its time for the 2026 Better Than Chalk Section Predictions. Last year was a rough year as high seeds dominated and I finished way underwater.
A reminder on the rules of this friendly and for entertainment purposes only game. Any
fool can pick nothing but top seeds (aka chalk) and then claim they were something like 306-13 on their picks. My mission is to
do better than that bracket. I also pick all games at the start of the
playoffs rather than going round by round to increase the challenge. I
don't get any chance to make up for my mistakes by picking day by day.
Not
happy with how I picked your team? Use the hashtag #ShockTheCzar on X and on your locker room/virtual whiteboards to express your
outrage. I'll pick games for every metro team that I previewed. That
means 15 full sections plus bonus selected games from 5 other sections. So without delay,
here we go.
Section 2A (Bonus Pick)
Mayer
Lutheran wins their 4 vs 13 game over BOLD on Tuesday. Then they bow out late Thursday to 5 seed Nicollet.
Section 4A
Tuesday Pigtail Round 1: 10 Metro Schools College Prep over 15 Aim Academy, 11 Trinity over 14 Community of Peace, 12 Exploration over 13 International School
Thursday Pigtail Round 2 (Seeds 5-9 enter): 5 Ubah over Exploration, 6 West Lutheran over Trinity, 7 CHOF over MSCP, 8 Avail over MN Transitions
Saturday Quarterfinals (Seeds 1-4 enter): 1 Liberty over Avail, 2 Heritage over CHOF, 3 United Christian over W Lutheran, 4 Hope over 5 Ubah.
Tuesday Semis: Liberty over Hope, Heritage over United Christian
Friday Final (5:30 PM St. Thomas
Academy): Liberty over Heritage
9 of the 24 teams are not playing sections, but we will have the Aim Academy Arctic as they go across town to be eliminated by MSCP in round 1. Pigtail rules of always pick home team apply there. Keep an eye on the 6/11 game on Thursday. Trinity only had 4 wins but 1 of them was over West Lutheran to start the season. I like West Lutheran at home in a tight one. Rest of those 2nd round games aren't competitive.
The heavy hitters enter on Saturday and its all chalk from there. Liberty steamrolls their way thru as there's no answer for Sam Rupnow. Heritage survived United Christian in an early season close win but they have Aaron Palmer back now. They'll make the final but had no answers for Liberty in the regular season.
Section 5A (Bonus Pick)
North Lakes handles Ogilvie in the 8/9 Monday pigtail. But they'll bow out to top seed Braham on Thursday.
Section 4AA
Mon Pigtail Round 1: 16 LILA over 17 Hmong
Tues
Pigtail Round 2: 9 Higher Ground over LILA, 10 Twin Cities Academy over 15 Math & Science, 11 Mounds Park Academy over 14 Nova Classical, 12 St. Agnes over 13 St. Paul Harding
Th Pigtail Round 3: 8 Washington over 9 Higher Ground, 7 New Life over 10 Twin Cities Academy, 6 St. Croix Prep over Mounds Park, 5 Concordia over 12 St. Agnes
Sat
Quarterfinals: 1 Minnehaha over St. Paul Washington, 2 St. Croix Lutheran over New Life, 3 St. Paul Academy over 6 St. Croix Prep, 5 Concordia over 4 Humboldt
Tues Semis: Minnehaha over Concordia, St. Croix Lutheran over St. Paul Academy
Fri
Final (8 PM St. Thomas Academy): Minnehaha over St. Croix Lutheran
The opening Tuesday games are the most interesting set of games. The 13-15 seeds all have a good shot of being lower seeds moving on but I don't have the courage to pick any of them. Then on Saturday, St Croix Prep just beat Humboldt and Concordia beat Prep twice so give me Concordia there. Rest is chalk. St. Croix Lutheran matches up well with SPA in a battle of guard laden teams. SCL got the regular season win and do so again in the semi. Minnehaha handled St. Croix Lutheran in the regular season and I think they do it again in the final.
Section 5AA
Monday
Pigtail Round 1: 16 Eagle Ridge over 17 Cristo Rey
Tuesday Pigtail Round 2: 9 Blake over Eagle Ridge, 10 Dassel-Cokato over Brooklyn Center, 11 Rockford over 14 Providence, 13 Jordan over 12 Parnassus
Thursday Pigtail Round
3: 5 Hiawatha over Jordan, 6 Howard Lake-Waverly-Winstead over Rockford, 7 Breck over Dassel-Cokato, Blake over 8 Watertown-Mayer
Saturday Quarterfinals: 1 Holy Family over Blake, 2 SW Christian over Breck, 3 Maranatha over HLWW, 5 Hiawatha over 4 Minneapolis North
Tuesday Semis: Holy Family over Hiawatha, SW Christian over Maranatha
Friday Final (Augsburg): Holy Family over SW Christian
Keep an eye on the Tuesday 11 vs 14 game. Rockford won the regular season meeting by 2. Also give me Jordan to win on the road with a big game from Mitchell Schmidt. Blake beat Belle Plaine while Watertown-Mayer got blown out. Blake better win at Jordan and W-M has lost 6 in a row. Give me the Bears on the road. On Saturday I love the 4 vs 5 game. Hiawatha lost at North big in their season opener but they've won 15 of their last 16. King James and the Hiawatha size is a major problem for North. But the North guards (J'Marion Sanders, Cordae Williams) and pressure is something Hiawatha needs to figure out. Give me Hiawatha here in a high intensity game.
Then a couple of very close semifinals. Hiawatha beat Holy Family by 1 in the regular seaon but that was at Hiawatha. King James with 27 and 15 in that game. Holy Family squeaks out a win on home court. SW Christian beat Maranatha over the Christmas holiday thanks to big games from Jed Streed and Jameson McCarthy and foul trouble from Marcus Marshall. The Mustangs haven't lost since that game. SW Christian survives at home. The championship should be a classic. You have 2 terrific coaches who have battled for years going back to their Lake Conference days. Holy Family won 2 very close games in the regular season to win the Wright County East. Can we move the game to Chanhassen? Stops very hard to come by for both teams. Holy Family's shooting vs SW Christian's front line is a story to watch. Holy Family finds a way and moves on.
Section 6AA (Bonus Picks)
Legacy goes on the road and beats PACT in the 8 vs 9 game on Thursday. Then top seed Albany beats them on Super Saturday at St. John's. Spectrum takes over Royalton in the 5 vs 12 game. They'll bow out in the next game at St. John's against 4 seed St. Cloud Cathedral.
Section 2AAA (Bonus Pick)
For the 2nd straight year, Hutchinson opens the playoffs at St. Peter in a rematch of a regular season game. For the 2nd straight year, Hutch is eliminated in that game.
Section 3AAA
Wed Qtrs: 5 St. Paul Highland Park at 4 Simley, 7 St. Paul Como Park at 2 South St. Paul, 6 Roosevelt at 3 St. Thomas Academy
Sat Semis: 1 South over Highland Park, South St. Paul over St. Thomas Academy
Th
Final: South over South St. Paul
Highland Park gets Simley again to move on. SSP no problems with Como Park. St. Thomas Academy gets a scare at home before moving on. South St. Paul won both meetings with the Cadets during the regular season and they'll win the 3rd at home. South continues a magical season taking out SSP in the final.
Section 4AAA
Monday Pigtail: 9 North St. Paul at 8 Minneapolis
Edison
Wed Qtrs: 1 De La Salle over Edison, 4 St. Anthony over 5 Columbia Heights, 2 Mahtomedi over 7 Minneapolis Camden, 3 St. Paul Johnson over 6 Hill-Murray
Sat semis: De La Salle over St. Anthony, Mahtomedi over St. Paul Johnson
Th Final: De La Salle over Mahtomedi.
By default rule of pick home team in the pigtail, give me Edison to be the sacrificial lamb for De La Salle. Mahtomedi and Johnson win their openers easily. Great constrast between old Metro Alliance rivals in the 4 vs 5 game. These teams split the season series. St. Anthony has won 9 of their last 10 starting with a win over Heights and a good win to end the regular season against St. Croix Lutheran. WOOF! Give me the Huskies to advance. De La Salle beats them soundly for a 3rd time in the semis. Mahtomedi out executes Johnson at home to move on before losing on the island in the final.
Section 5AAA
Wed Qtrs: 5 Princeton over 4 Big Lake, 2 Becker over 7 St. Francis, 3 Zimmerman over 6 Fridley
Fri Semis: 1 Totino-Grace over Princeton, Becker over Zimmerman
Th Final (Neutral): Totino-Grace over Becker
Princeton lost 2 close games to Big Lake in the regular season. Princeton wins the important one in another game that is in the 80s. Becker and Zimmerman move on to clash in a close semi before Becker moves on. Totino-Grace steamrolls everybody here.
Section 6AAA
Mon Pigtail: 9 Westonka over 8 Cooper
Wed
Qtrs: 1 Richfield over Westonka, 5 Delano over 4 Holy Angels, 3 Benilde-St. Margaret's over 6 Minneapolis Southwest, 2 Orono over 7 Bloomington Kennedy
Sat Semis (2
PM): Richfield over Delano, Orono over Benilde-St. Margaret's
Th
Final: Richfield over Orono
In the pigtail, Westonka can struggle to score but I think Mika James and Marcus Lessor give them enough to move on. The reward is getting blown out by Richfield. BSM and Orono move on but Southwest gives Benilde a game. I love the Delano vs AHA game. Delano is hot right now and Blake Nixon is still out for Holy Angels. Give me Delano here. Richfield no problem in the semis. Orono gets a 3rd close win over BSM. Richfield too much again for Orono in the final.
Section 7AAA (Bonus Picks)
Grand Rapids takes out 8 seed North Branch in round 1. Then the Thunder-Thunder-Thunder-Hawks take out 4 seed Chisago Lakes in the semis. Chisago Lakes no problems in their home rematch with Hermantown in the 1st round.
Section 1AAAA
Wed
Qtrs: 1 Lakeville South over 8 Rochester John Marshall, 4 Lakeville North over Owatonna, 3 Rochester Mayo over 6 Rochester Century, 2 Farmington over 7 New Prague.
Sat Semis: Lakeville South over Lakeville North, Rochester Mayo over Farmington
Fri Final (Mayo Arena): Rochester Mayo over Lakeville South
Opening round is chalk with not much debate. The battle of Lakeville in 1 semi is an attention getter. North won both meetings against South this year, but I'm going with South to win the one that matters. Farmington beat Mayo over the holidays but Mayo was without Reggie Parker and Logan Shimek for that game. Mayo is now back to full strength and those 2 give them the necessary physical presence. They've lost only once since that Farmington game and that was a 2 point game at Apple Valley. They take out both South Suburban foes to move on to state.
Section 2AAAA
Wed
Qtrs: 4 Waconia over 5 Chan, 2 Chaska over 7 Shakopee, 3 Eden Prairie over 6 Minnetonka
Sat Semis (noon): 1 Prior Lake over Waconia, Chaska over Eden Prairie
Fri Final: Prior Lake over Chaska
Are you not entertained?! The section of doom won't disappoint this year either. Waconia wins again over Chanhassen. Chaska too much for Shakopee. Keep an eye on this 3 vs 6 game. Minnetonka just beat Eden Prairie on Friday. Bryce Tesdahl coaching his tail off with this group. The Skippers can struggle offensively which makes you wonder if they have enough to keep up with the high powered EP offense. I like Eden Prairie here but its a battle. Prior Lake wins a revenge match with Waconia. Ditto that for Chaska and EP. I was surprised the head to head win didn't move EP up. Great point guard matchup there of Hamze Yusuf and Tyler Forrest. I think Chaska's defense is just a bit better and that moves them on. Prior Lake's size is too much in the final
Section 3AAAA
Tues
Qtrs: 1 Eagan over 8 Bloomington Jefferson at 1 Eagan, 5 Eastview over 4 Park, 2 Rosemount over 7 Burnsville, 3 Apple Valley over 6 Hastings
Fri Semis: Eagan over Eastview, Apple Valley over Rosemount
Th Final: Eagan over Apple Valley
Top 3 seeds no problem in round 1. Park isn't deep and not sure they can score enough. Give me Eastview in that game as I don't like chalk everywhere. In the semis, Eastview will keep it interesting for a while but Eagan will pull away. Yes Rosemount just won at Apple Valley by 2, but Apple Valley won by 15 in the 1st meeting. I like Apple Valley's big game experience and Camare Young here. Then another rubber match where Apple Valley won on the road. Eagan at home and their depth makes a difference. I think they do enough to slow Apple Valley down and Kevin Kemp is a difference maker in that game. Eagan moves on.
Section 4AAAA
Wed
Qtrs: 1 Tartan over 8 Two Rivers, 4 St. Paul Central over 5 Stillwater, 2 East Ridge over 7 White Bear Lake, 3 Cretin-Derham Hall over 6 Woodbury
Sat
Semis: Tartan over Central, Cretin-Derham Hall over East Ridge
Th Final: Tartan over Cretin-Derham Hall
Top 3 seeds in big fashion in the 1st round. Central and Stillwater meet in round 1 for the 4th straight year. Central wins a close one. CDH has arguably done the best job defending Cedric Tomes of anybody. They can throw a bunch of guys at him and still have plenty of offense. I like CDH here in that rubber match. Tartan no problems in their semi. Then you get KJ Wilson vs JoJo Mitchell and Emmanuel Oyesanmi vs Ty Schlagel in a section final. Yes Please! No Tommy Ahneman type problem for Tartan to deal with. Tartan squeaks by on home court.
Section 5AAAA
Tues
Qtrs: 1 Maple Grove over 8 Park Center, 2 Osseo over 7 Irondale, 3 Champlin Park over Spring Lake Park, 4 Mounds View over 5 Roseville.
Fri
Semis: Maple Grove over Mounds View, Champlin Park over Osseo
Fri Final: Maple Grove over Champlin Park
Tuesday quarters see the top 2 seeds move on without trouble. I'm surprised Roseville is on the road considering they split with Mounds View and were 1 game better in the Suburban East. Splitting hairs with these 2 teams and home court is the difference. 1 meeting was 48-44. That's a Mounds View style game and they can control pace. They advance before losing to Maple Grove in the semis. Champlin Park is night and day different with Gavin Walter back. They should have fought for the 2 seed and got it. They move on over Osseo in the semis. But not after a severe test from Spring Lake Park in the 3 vs 6 quarterfinal. Get your popcorn battle there between Walter and Nolan Myren there. Maple Grove has Max Iversen playing too well right now. Maple Grove moves on to state.
Section 6AAAA
Tues
Qtrs: 4 Edina over 5 St. Louis Park, 2 Hopkins over 7 Armstrong, 3 Buffalo over 6 Washburn
Tues Semis: 1 Wayzata over Edina, Hopkins over Buffalo
Fri Final: Wayzata over Hopkins
No surprises in the quarters. In the semis, Hopkins had a great week winning at De La Salle and at Buffalo. I think that translates into winning the rubber match at home against Buffalo. Then the dynamite rematch, again, in the section finals. Hopkins sent Phil Ward to his head coaching retirement. Would only be fitting that coach Novak goes out against Wayzata. Wayzata wins another instant classic.
Section 7AAAA
Wed
Qtrs: 1 Blaine over 8 Cambridge-Isanti, 2 Andover over 7 Centennial, 3 Anoka over 6 Duluth East, 5 Coon Rapids over 4 Forest Lake (7 PM start)
Sat Semis (highest seed 1/3 PM): Blaine over Coon Rapids, Anoka over Andover
Th
Final: Anoka over Blaine
Top 3 seeds too much firepower in the opening round. Tons of little guards on display in the Coon Rapids game. Let's go Coon Rapids here as I like their recent results better. Then the north river Anoka-Hennepin district championships. The East division semi Blaine no problem with Coon Rapids. The west division one is a great rivalry. Andover has 2 close head to head wins in the matchups. Anoka after a rough start has won 10 of 12 with 1 of those being an Andover loss. I'm going with my preseason stubbornness and the theory that its hard to beat a team 3 times. Anoka too much size here and it pays off in a high scoring game (both games were in the 80s). Give me the same theory in the final. Blaine was the other loss late for Anoka but this isn't the same Blaine team we saw early. Anoka gets it done on the road.
Section 8AAAA
Tues Qtrs: 1 Alexandria over 8 STMA, 4 Monticello over 5 Moorhead, 2 Bemidji over 7 Rogers, 3 Elk River over 6 Brainerd
Fri Semis: Alexandria over Monticello, Elk River over Bemidji
Th Final: Alexandria over Elk River
On Tuesday, give me chalk. Moorhead at Monticello is too good for a 4 vs 5 game. Moorhead hasn't been the same without David Mack though and Monticello should be motivated in this rematch (lost in December) after getting shafted out of the 3 seed. In the semis, Elk River takes their 3 seed and proves it as they just beat Bemidji at home. Give me metro bias and a repeat with Elk River winning that semi. Then another rematch in the final. Elk River took Alexandria to the limit in OT at Alexandria already this season. But that was without Talan Witt. Alexandria at full strength moves on.
STORYLINES
3 major pieces return from injury in these playoffs. Jamestown commit Reggie Parker is back on the front line for Rochester Mayo. Aaron Palmer returns for Heritage. PG Malachi Hill is back for Totino-Grace. Not that Totino-Grace needed the help but a difference maker like that can't be ignored.
On the other side, we have the injured. Will Minneapolis South have Jake Dixon back? Will Isaac Olmstead be able to return for Wayzata? Wayzata though is as well-suited as anybody to take on a guard injury with the deep bench they have. Will Blake Nixon be back for Holy Angels?
Then there's the Hopkins opener against Armstrong. A win would give coach Ken Novak the all-time wins record passing Bob McDonald and a chance that it might be his last win ever if they go out in a tough semifinal and he chooses to retire.
