2024-25 Season: Previewing the Stretch run

February is here and that means 2 months of the 2024-25 season are done.  We're down to the final 1 month sprint to the playoffs.  Let's go section by section thru applicable metro area sections and take a look at some seeding and conference storylines for the final month.  I also published the 3rd CzarPI of the season earlier (click here to view)

Section 4A
Liberty leads the QRF over Heritage in the race for the top spot.  Big week for Liberty ahead as they can wrap up the EMAC but need to beat the next 2 best teams.  They host Twin Cities Academy on Tuesday and then have to go to The Crash Pad on Friday night.  Family night there so expect standing room only for that one.  Avail will be looking to avenge their only loss of the season in that game (77-74 last month).  But with a bottom 10 schedule strength they probably need to win out to even think about being compared to Heritage for the top spot.  Hope Academy sticks out as a team that can pull an upset or be upset.  They just knocked off St. Agnes and throttled section member Trinity to be 4-0 vs the Skyline but lost by 30 at Avail.  Very interesting season finale at home against Heritage.  Heritage has the border battle game against Wyoming commit Gavin Gores on Saturday and the MCAA showcase game.  If Legacy and Spectrum tie for the top spot in the north, I say let Heritage pick their opponent for the North vs South defacto league championship game.  Trinity with their methodical style and pack line defense is like watching Wisconsin.  They can win they section but can also lose to just about anybody.  Props to what coach Mike Sauer and Hmong Academy has done.  7-1 in the section.  Solid showing in the EMAC.  They're in line for at least 1 bye and a winnable game rather than automatic double pigtail out which is a significant milestone for that program.

Section 4AA
No surprise here at the top.  Minnehaha and St. Croix Lutheran have stuck out as the clear top teams here.  They are within the tiebreak margin, but Minnehaha has the head to head win just before Christmas. So while St. Croix Lutheran likely will have a conference title to their credit (2 games up on Maranatha and St. Agnes and host both in the next 8 days) and Minnehaha is looking at 3rd in the IMAC, these seeds look pretty set.  Another fact is that SW Christian hosted both and beat Minnehaha by 9, but just lost to St. Croix Lutheran by 13 this weekend.  St. Paul Washington vs St. Paul Humboldt seeding and where Nova Classical fits into that.  Nova with a big seeding game at Math & Science on Wednesday.  Nova beat Humboldt, lost badly to Washington, Humboldt hammered Washington by 40 in 1st meeting.  Nova got hammered by PACT, Math and Science beat PACT will be interesting to watch.

Section 5AA
Blake is the clear front runner for the top seed but they have a tough February ahead.  It starts with Jordan on Tuesday and then the last 5 are Mound-Westonka in the annual manager mops the floor afterwards game, at Breck for the IMAC title and avenge only loss, at Minneapolis Camden, at SW Christian and Maranatha.  Breck with a big seeding game against Minneapolis North remaining and QRF tiebreaks could pull them over the Polars and maybe even SW Christian.  They also have Eau Claire Memorial in the Border Battle this week, Minnehaha, at Mankato East and Washburn left on the schedule in addition to that Blake game  Maranatha had a really rough 7 game losing streak but have won 6 in a row steamrolling people.  Huge week for the Mustangs as they go to St. Croix Lutheran and Minnehaha.  Then they get Concordia and St. Agnes at home and visit St. Croix Prep in games that should sort out 2nd place in the Skyline.  Right now they are the 11 seed and nobody wants to be the 6 and draw that.  Right now that would be Jordan who has lost 3 in a row (they won at MCA by 2 in December).  Rockford has lost 6 of 8 without Braden Blanchard.  Doesn't get any easier for the Rockets as 3 of the next 4 are against Wright County West leaders Watertown-Mayer and Glencoe-Silver Lake and a trip to Annandale.  Hiawatha will likely hold the 5 spot due to their head to head win over Jordan.  Watertown-Mayer could win the Wright County West and maybe not get a home game?  Right now they're batting Holy Family for home court in the 8-9 game.  Both teams with tough February schedules.

Section 6AA
You have Legacy at the top and Spectrum 5th in a list of 6 teams that are all within 6 points in the QRF right now for the 6 thru 11 seeds.  So that will be very fascinating to watch.  Spectrum's loss to Foley looms large as Foley is 6th on that list.  But if they can beat Kimball this month, then the QRF tiebreaks are really tight right now and might allow them to move up into a 1st round home game.  There's also the chance that if all stays as is they they could visit Legacy in a 7-10 1st round game.    

Section 3AAA
I think we can safely say this AAA section isn't getting a seed at state.  Nobody with a better record that 9-7 and only 1 team higher than 28.  That's St. Thomas Academy at 17 with an 8-8 record.  Tuesday's home game vs South St. Paul looms large.  St. Thomas probably keeps the top seed but a South St. Paul loss could open the door for Two Rivers to steal the 2 seed.  Sleeper team here could be St. Paul Highland Park who has close losses to Johnson, Central and Two Rivers and a win over Harding.  Important section games vs Como Park, South and Harding still remain for the Scots.  This section reminds a lot of last year's 3AAAA where it was the bottom half of the South Suburban.  You have the bottom half of the Metro East here.

Section 4AAA
DeLaSalle no surprise as the 1 seed here.  I think Johnson holds the 2 seed but they may need to sweep Central and win the St. Paul City to do it.  The 1st meeting was flooded out and moved to Monday night.  Mahtomedi looks like they need the sweep to take the 3 seed from North St. Paul even though they're 2 games up right now in the Metro East standings.  Everybody else is under 500.  Who gets the home game between Camden and St. Anthony in the 4 vs 5 game still remains a close battle.

Section 5AAA
Totino-Grace and Monticello look locked into the top 2 seeds.  Zimmerman and Becker in the 3rd and 4th slots has gotten interesting.  The Thunder have lost 4 in a row after a 13-2 start.  Becker hosts Friday's rematch needing a win to get the season split and a shot at that 3 seed.  Big Lake trying to hold off Fridley for the 6 seed.     

Section 6AAA
Last week pretty settled all the section seeding debates in the AAA section of death.  Benilde-St. Margaret's with their win over Orono last week looks like that locks BSM into the 1 and Orono into the 2 regardless of what happens in the rematch in the final week.  Similarly, Richfield's comeback vs Mound-Westonka on Tuesday locks the Spartans into 3 and the Whitehawks into 4.  Richfield can still look to split the Tri-Metro title as they host #5AAA DeLaSalle on Tuesday.

Section 7AAA (bonus)
I've seen 5 teams here so why not.  This is the other AAA section that definitely won't get a seed at state.  North Branch beat rival Chisago Lakes by 1 in their 1st meeting.  If Chisago Lakes can steal the rematch on the road its possible they could move out of the cellar and put North Branch there.  At the top of the section, the 1 seed is still up for grabs.  Cloquet is 2nd but they have a head to head win over Hibbing and are within the tiebreaker margin.  They meet again Feb 13th in Hibbing.  Classic size vs speed matchup there with Jack Battaglia for Cloquet and 1000 point scorer Ray Brau inside for Hibbing.  Brau put up 40 and 17 vs King James at Hiawatha and James is a guy locals have been raving about all year.

Section 1AAAA
I was high on Rochester John Marshall at the start of the year.  They were down people and looked bad in the Capital City loss to Anoka.  But they've been as good or better against Rochester Century (another chance to prove that on Tuesday) than the Lakeville schools that they're sandwiched between.  They just took their 1st loss in the Big 9 to Mankato East on Friday, no shame in that.  If the season ended today, they'd be the top seed based on QRF tiebreak.  While the schedule has been weak and the loss to Burnsville looks worse every day, they did beat Farmington with Cole Wilcek at the Cap City.  Lakeville South gets Farmington this week with a head to head loss.  Lakeville North split the season series last week with Wilcek out.  They're also 2 games ahead of Lakeville South in the South Suburban right now.  Speaking of Farmington they are currently looking at a 4 vs 5 trip to Rochester Mayo.  They've lost 6 of 9 since that win over Lakeville South.

Section 2AAAA
Gotta love that this section has everybody play everybody.  Makes things so nice.  Minnetonka with a huge statement last week curbstomping #2AAAA Wayzata.  But they have head to head losses to Prior Lake and Shakopee who are on either side of them.  To the contrary, Tonka can say they have a Wayzata win and the other 2 both lost to Wayzata so there is that.  Top seed here gets a bye so Prior Lake may get that despite finishing behind Shakopee in the South Suburban.  Those 3 have separated themselves.  Eden Prairie's head to head win over Waconia should get them the 4 vs 5 rematch again at their place.  Chaska ahead of Chanhassen in the QRF for the last spot, but the Storm have the head to head win.  Chaska needs a win in Tuesday's rematch to stay out of the 7 seed.

Section 3AAAA
Eagan's 3 point win at Apple Valley is why their 1st in the South Suburban.  Tuesday's rematch could really make a mess of the league race or give Eagan a huge leg up.  Eagan is borderline on the QRF tiebreak so a win is a must if they want to ensure the 1 seed.  Hastings and Park default to the 3 and 4.  Eastview's win over Rosemount split the season series and tied the teams in the South Suburban. That's a battle for the 5 seed.  Jefferson's win over Burnsville means Jefferson should move up but tiebreaker margin could be an issue there.

Section 4AAAA
#1AAAA CDH has been winning without Tommy Ahneman.  Even with Tartan being undefeated, I don't see CDH falling out of the 1 seed even if they lose home games to East Ridge on Friday and DeLaSalle the following week.  East Ridge's loss a couple of weeks ago means that CDH is 2 games up in the Suburban East so not as much at stake as hoped for on Friday.  Will the Suburban East coaches drop Tartan to 3?  That's always the drama here in another coaches vote that is always entertaining.  White Bear Lake and Woodbury fighting over the bottom seed.  Teams are tied in league, Woodbury has the head-head home win but White Bear Lake ahead by a value that could be outside the tiebreaker.  They meet at White Bear on Friday.  Stillwater's 2 wins over Woodbury and White Bear Lake are more impressive than Central's 2 wins over them plus the big QRF edge of the Suburban East vs the St. Paul City will give Stillwater the 4 vs 5 home game.

Section 5AAAA
Champlin Park is the easy 1 seed in QRF and CzarPI.  They've won 9 of 10. But the only loss in that stretch is to Maple Grove who is undefeated in NW Suburban play.  Remember that the NWS is just a single round robin schedule.  However, due to the extra schedule flexibility, the teams do play again on Feb 14th.  Both teams have to play Totino-Grace yet as well.  That's a big week for Maple Grove as they play at TG (NWS title game possibly), Anoka and at Champlin Park.  Tricky game on Monday vs Spring Lake Park too.  Mounds View's lack of schedule strength probably slots them in at 3.  Park Center may need a win over Spring Lake Park on Feb 13th to get home court in the 4 vs 5 playoff rematch.  Spring Lake Park has Mounds View earlier that week.  Roseville early season win over Osseo looks like it'll give the Raiders the 6 seed over the Orioles.  Irondale looks slotted in the final 8th seed.

Section 6AAAA
After the Tonka thumping last week, Wayzata looks like they'll need the sweep over Hopkins to get the top seed and 1st round bye.  Edina's wins over Washburn and St. Louis Park cement them at 3.  Washburn within the tiebreaker margin and have the head to head with St. Louis Park to steal the 4 vs 5 home game.  Armstrong had good back to back wins over Spring Lake Park and at Andover but have lost 4 in a row since.  They host Minneapolis Southwest on Friday in a matchup of the bottom 2 seeds. Southwest has lost 3 in a row since upsetting Washburn in a rivalry game 10 days ago.  Armstrong needs a win and hope the lesser Mpls City schedule vs the NWS schedule gets them within the tiebreaker if they want to jump out of the cellar.

Section 7AAAA
15-4 Anoka is the runaway top seed here.  Only 1 other team better than 500 and that's 9-8 Blaine. Duluth East at Forest Lake on Tuesday to determine the 7 and 8 seeds.  Coon Rapids has a win over Cambridge-Isanti.  Kyle McDonald does have a home win over his dad (Forest Lake over Cambridge), can Rhett do the same on Saturday?  Cambridge would like a win there so make sure they don't drop below the 6 seed.  Coon Rapids hoping that maybe a win over Centennial could flip them to a home game.  Blaine and Andover split their 2 games and look set at 2 and 3.

Section 8AAAA
Once again this section looks to be the most entertaining one in AAAA.  Buffalo is 7-1 in the section with the only loss to (check notes) Rogers?  They'll likely move up to 3 and past Sauk Rapids-Rice thanks to a head to head win 10 days ago.  Moorhead won at STMA right after the new year and that looks like it will get them the top seed unless you get a cluster of insanity in the QRF where Buffalo with all the head to head wins could go from 1 to 4.  Any of those 4 teams could win the section.  Bemidji looks locked in at 5.  Brainerd beat Rogers in the season opener so that should settle those 2 at 6 and 7.  The 8 vs 9 pigtail game looks like a rematch of last year with Sartell visiting Elk River.  Elk River won the regular season meeting by 3 at the Granite City so they look locked into that pigtail home game.