First CzarPI of 2011-12

So with all the discussion recently around using the computers to seed instead of coaches, I decided to bring back the CzarPI as a point of discussion and contrast (see CzarPI Explained here).  It includes games through February 18th, 2012.  The value in () after the CzarPI value is the team's strength of schedule ranking within their class.

Czar's Note: 2/20/12.  Had to repost this as there was a major data error with 1 team that I found and I had to eliminate 3 non-MSHSL teams.

Class AAAA
  1. Hopkins - 62.34 (7)
  2. Eastview - 61.62 (8)
  3. Lakeville North - 61.49 (16)
  4. Osseo - 58.05 (41)
  5. Eden Prairie - 57.88 (1)
  6. Wayzata - 57.2 (34)
  7. Apple Valley - 57.16 (11)
  8. Minnetonka - 56.13 (14)
  9. Roseville - 55.95 (48)
  10. Moorhead - 55.71 (9)
  11. Duluth East - 55.55 (2)
  12. Woodbury - 55.41 (47)
  13. Edina - 55.06 (3)
  14. Chanhassen - 54.83 (32)
  15. Park Center - 54.43 (30)
  16. Owatonna - 54.09 (59)
  17. Champlin Park - 53.71 (36)
  18. St. Michael-Albertville - 52.7 (60)
  19. Buffalo - 52.62 (27)
  20. Tartan - 52.36 (61)
  21. Mahtomedi - 52.15 (54)
  22. St. Cloud Tech - 52.13 (23)
  23. Cretin-Derham Hall - 52.11 (17)
  24. Rogers - 51.72 (49)
  25. Mounds View - 51.57 (44)
  26. Brainerd - 51.33 (33)
  27. Prior Lake - 50.82 (12)
  28. Bemidji - 50.77 (25)
  29. Centennial - 50.56 (42)
  30. Henry Sibley - 50.46 (19)
  31. White Bear Lake - 50.38 (29)
  32. Elk River - 49.46 (24)
  33. Rochester Century - 49.03 (57)
  34. Maple Grove - 48.95 (18)
  35. Lakeville South - 48.87 (4)
  36. Eagan - 48.46 (6)
  37. Blaine - 48.38 (46)
  38. Rosemount - 47.46 (13)
  39. Robbinsdale Cooper - 45.22 (35)
  40. St. Louis Park - 45.18 (45)
  41. Irondale - 45.13 (40)
  42. North St. Paul - 44.8 (56)
  43. East Ridge - 43.61 (37)
  44. Stillwater Area - 43.51 (20)
  45. Shakopee - 42.54 (28)
  46. Rochester Mayo - 42.36 (43)
  47. Minneapolis South - 41.05 (21)
  48. Anoka - 40.97 (22)
  49. Farmington - 40.67 (51)
  50. Coon Rapids - 40.1 (26)
  51. Forest Lake - 39.9 (50)
  52. Bloomington Jefferson - 39.65 (15)
  53. Bloomington Kennedy - 39.59 (10)
  54. Northfield - 39.58 (38)
  55. St. Francis - 38.42 (63)
  56. Rochester John Marshall - 37.25 (52)
  57. Robbinsdale Armstrong - 36.85 (31)
  58. Hastings - 36.51 (62)
  59. Minneapolis Southwest - 35.96 (58)
  60. Andover - 34.15 (39)
  61. Cambridge-Isanti - 24.88 (55)
  62. Burnsville - 23.92 (5)
  63. Park of Cottage Grove - 23.87 (53)
Class AAA
  1. Benilde-St. Margaret's - 60.56 (4)
  2. Grand Rapids - 59.21 (3)
  3. Minneapolis Washburn - 56.46 (46)
  4. Spring Lake Park - 55.64 (15)
  5. DeLaSalle - 55.03 (34)
  6. Kasson-Mantorville - 54.97 (31)
  7. Blake - 54.94 (55)
  8. Willmar - 54.86 (17)
  9. Zimmerman - 54.59 (43)
  10. Thief River Falls - 54.45 (11)
  11. Mankato East - 54.16 (44)
  12. Little Falls - 54.15 (41)
  13. Waconia - 53.88 (19)
  14. Austin - 53.87 (59)
  15. Marshall - 53.73 (13)
  16. Detroit Lakes - 53.69 (28)
  17. St. Anthony Village - 53.29 (47)
  18. Fergus Falls - 52.5 (2)
  19. Duluth Denfeld - 52.01 (27)
  20. Delano - 51.42 (42)
  21. Rocori - 50.58 (24)
  22. Chaska - 50.47 (7)
  23. New Prague - 50.43 (53)
  24. St. Thomas Academy - 50.04 (35)
  25. Hill-Murray - 49.87 (18)
  26. Holy Angels - 49.84 (25)
  27. St. Paul Johnson - 48.79 (58)
  28. Richfield - 48.78 (40)
  29. Totino-Grace - 48.65 (22)
  30. Alexandria - 47.96 (5)
  31. Columbia Heights - 47.58 (10)
  32. Hermantown - 47.43 (57)
  33. Minneapolis Henry - 46.42 (38)
  34. Hibbing - 46.2 (32)
  35. Big Lake - 46.18 (50)
  36. East Grand Forks - 45.42 (61)
  37. St. Paul Highland Park - 44.77 (63)
  38. Princeton - 44.63 (62)
  39. Sartell-St. Stephen - 44.34 (9)
  40. Sauk Rapids-Rice - 44.27 (6)
  41. St. Cloud Apollo - 44.11 (14)
  42. Hutchinson - 43.44 (16)
  43. St. Paul Central - 43.11 (64)
  44. Fridley - 43.07 (52)
  45. Winona - 42.86 (33)
  46. Mound-Westonka - 42.61 (30)
  47. Mankato West - 42.47 (37)
  48. Red Wing - 42.09 (54)
  49. Orono - 41.08 (12)
  50. Minneapolis Roosevelt - 40.19 (60)
  51. Waseca - 39.79 (49)
  52. St. Paul Harding - 38.56 (65)
  53. Simley - 37.69 (39)
  54. Cloquet - 37.65 (36)
  55. Albert Lea - 36.8 (21)
  56. Becker - 35.05 (48)
  57. Chisago Lakes Area - 34.11 (29)
  58. North Branch - 32.11 (45)
  59. Monticello - 29.01 (23)
  60. St. Paul Como Park - 27.98 (20)
  61. New Ulm - 27.62 (26)
  62. Holy Family Catholic - 26.98 (1)
  63. Dassel-Cokato - 26.53 (8)
  64. Faribault - 24.57 (56)
  65. South St. Paul - 19.52 (51)
Class AA
  1. Redwood Valley - 59.35 (38)
  2. Waterville-Elysian-Morristown - 57.91 (77)
  3. Perham - 57.42 (60)
  4. Pelican Rapids - 57.36 (17)
  5. Long Prairie-Grey Eagle - 57.32 (85)
  6. St. Peter - 56.88 (106)
  7. Litchfield - 56.78 (42)
  8. Watertown-Mayer - 56.69 (81)
  9. Braham - 56.62 (96)
  10. Montevideo - 56 (8)
  11. Deer River - 55.57 (73)
  12. Worthington - 55.49 (3)
  13. Esko - 55.27 (65)
  14. Hayfield - 55.25 (15)
  15. Maple River - 54.74 (76)
  16. St. Cloud Cathedral - 54.51 (41)
  17. Mayer Lutheran - 54.51 (62)
  18. Fairmont - 54.3 (35)
  19. Plainview-Elgin-Millville - 54.09 (59)
  20. Byron - 53.64 (79)
  21. Lake Crystal-Wellcome Memorial - 53.05 (101)
  22. St. Croix Lutheran - 52.89 (57)
  23. Cannon Falls - 52.68 (115)
  24. Virginia - 52.63 (91)
  25. Rochester Lourdes - 52.36 (34)
  26. Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted - 52.13 (70)
  27. Pierz - 52 (83)
  28. United South Central - 51.69 (95)
  29. International Falls - 51.62 (111)
  30. Melrose - 51.03 (50)
  31. Bagley - 50.98 (97)
  32. Windom Area - 50.78 (21)
  33. Morris Area/Chokio-Alberta - 50.4 (55)
  34. St. Charles - 50.4 (98)
  35. Kingsland - 50.23 (99)
  36. Trinity School - 49.91 (107)
  37. New Life Academy - 49.73 (39)
  38. Luverne - 49.43 (49)
  39. Crosby-Ironton - 49.19 (25)
  40. Concordia Academy-Roseville - 48.73 (75)
  41. Hawley - 48.58 (54)
  42. Great River - 48.55 (126)
  43. Lake City - 48.43 (116)
  44. Sauk Centre - 48.31 (24)
  45. Minnehaha Academy - 48.19 (67)
  46. Moose Lake-Willow River - 47.75 (109)
  47. Kenyon-Wanamingo - 47.72 (56)
  48. Norwood-Young America - 47.53 (104)
  49. Benson - 47.28 (94)
  50. Pequot Lakes - 47.25 (33)
  51. Caledonia - 46.58 (113)
  52. Martin County West - 46.54 (74)
  53. Annandale - 46.42 (102)
  54. Albany - 46.22 (51)
  55. Warroad - 46.21 (86)
  56. Southland - 46.2 (100)
  57. Belle Plaine - 46.12 (31)
  58. Lewiston-Altura - 45.84 (46)
  59. Barnesville - 45.75 (90)
  60. BOLD - 45.67 (92)
  61. Jordan - 45.55 (44)
  62. Hinckley-Finlayson - 45.37 (125)
  63. Crookston - 44.51 (89)
  64. Providence Academy - 43.91 (108)
  65. St. John's Prep - 43.51 (40)
  66. St. Agnes - 43.37 (18)
  67. Montgomery-Lonsdale - 43.32 (36)
  68. Winona Cotter - 42.33 (30)
  69. Zumbrota-Mazeppa - 42.29 (80)
  70. Aitkin - 42.06 (88)
  71. Breckenridge - 42.04 (82)
  72. New London-Spicer - 41.76 (37)
  73. Tracy-Milroy-Balaton - 41.73 (105)
  74. Maple Lake - 41.69 (78)
  75. International School of MN - 41.27 (121)
  76. Sibley East - 41.25 (6)
  77. Wadena-Deer Creek - 41.13 (72)
  78. Osakis - 40.96 (4)
  79. Kimball Area - 40.81 (61)
  80. Minnewaska Area - 40.45 (20)
  81. Greenway - 40.4 (123)
  82. Chatfield - 40.22 (52)
  83. Mora - 40.13 (13)
  84. Glencoe-Silver Lake - 39.66 (26)
  85. Frazee - 39.49 (9)
  86. Blue Earth Area - 39.43 (27)
  87. New Richland-H-E-G - 39.33 (64)
  88. Staples-Motley - 39.26 (2)
  89. Rush City - 38.84 (120)
  90. Duluth Marshall - 38.53 (119)
  91. Brooklyn Center - 38.35 (5)
  92. St. Paul Academy - 37.8 (45)
  93. LeSueur-Henderson - 37.51 (14)
  94. Breck - 37.12 (28)
  95. Pine Island - 37.01 (23)
  96. St. Paul Humboldt - 36.13 (93)
  97. Spectrum - 36.11 (66)
  98. Eden Valley-Watkins - 35.8 (84)
  99. Jackson County Central - 35.79 (11)
  100. Minneapolis North - 35.39 (22)
  101. Yellow Medicine East - 35.09 (118)
  102. Eveleth-Gilbert - 34.9 (112)
  103. Proctor - 34.69 (117)
  104. Minneapolis Edison - 34.67 (114)
  105. Stewartville - 33.94 (1)
  106. Foley - 33.7 (32)
  107. Two Harbors - 33.31 (68)
  108. Medford - 33.27 (103)
  109. Rockford - 33.23 (10)
  110. Holdingford - 32.99 (16)
  111. Paynesville Area - 32.22 (47)
  112. Park Rapids Area - 31.68 (63)
  113. Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton - 30.78 (7)
  114. Pipestone Area - 30.61 (12)
  115. Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop - 30.32 (69)
  116. Pine City - 30.07 (122)
  117. La Crescent - 29.6 (110)
  118. Milaca - 29.01 (43)
  119. Roseau - 28.73 (87)
  120. Mounds Park Academy - 28.48 (53)
  121. Dover-Eyota - 28.12 (48)
  122. Triton - 27.44 (29)
  123. Lac qui Parle Valley - 27.38 (71)
  124. St. James - 26.48 (19)
  125. Wabasha-Kellogg - 19.47 (58)
  126. Cristo Rey Jesuit - 0 (124)
  127. Hmong Academy - 0 (127)
    Class A
    1. Browerville - 57.75 (40)
    2. Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa - 56.91 (93)
    3. Southwest MN Christian - 56.81 (48)
    4. Battle Lake - 55.23 (142)
    5. Cook County - 54.56 (67)
    6. Sleepy Eye Saint Mary's - 54.13 (52)
    7. Cass Lake-Bena - 54.09 (76)
    8. Rushford-Peterson - 53.91 (58)
    9. Prairie Seeds Academy - 53.5 (69)
    10. FAIR School - 53.26 (123)
    11. Ulen-Hitterdal - 53.17 (103)
    12. Ada-Borup - 53.12 (77)
    13. Dawson-Boyd - 53.02 (126)
    14. Maranatha Christian - 53.02 (36)
    15. North Woods - 52.94 (122)
    16. Spring Grove - 52.92 (132)
    17. Lakeview Christian - 52.87 (120)
    18. Fertile-Beltrami - 51.76 (19)
    19. MACCRAY - 51.71 (71)
    20. Fulda - 51.66 (68)
    21. Fosston - 51.55 (99)
    22. Kittson County Central - 51.44 (81)
    23. Upsala - 51.43 (3)
    24. Goodhue - 51.4 (44)
    25. Ashby - 51.21 (140)
    26. Pillager - 50.95 (102)
    27. Heritage Christian - 50.94 (45)
    28. Cedar Mountain/Comfrey - 50.81 (31)
    29. Bigfork - 50.77 (47)
    30. West Lutheran - 50.76 (33)
    31. Ellsworth - 50.75 (11)
    32. New Ulm Cathedral - 50.72 (88)
    33. Northern Freeze - 50.68 (90)
    34. Red Lake - 50.32 (62)
    35. Mt. Lake/Butterfield-Odin - 50.21 (112)
    36. Lester Prairie/Holy Trinity - 50.05 (9)
    37. Bethlehem Academy - 49.85 (80)
    38. Stephen-Argyle - 49.57 (113)
    39. Mankato Loyola - 49.18 (20)
    40. Eagle Valley - 48.78 (13)
    41. Barnum - 48.73 (131)
    42. Royalton - 48.45 (7)
    43. Houston - 48.32 (136)
    44. Russell-Tyler-Ruthton - 47.94 (85)
    45. Atwater-Cosmos-Grove City - 47.9 (35)
    46. Murray County Central - 47.16 (86)
    47. Granada-Huntley-East Chain - 47.07 (51)
    48. Isle - 46.93 (135)
    49. Goodridge/Grygla - 46.78 (115)
    50. Ely - 46.72 (89)
    51. Ortonville - 46.58 (128)
    52. Springfield - 46.39 (8)
    53. Bertha-Hewitt - 46.3 (60)
    54. Henning - 46.11 (114)
    55. Lanesboro - 46.1 (148)
    56. Southwest Star Concept - 46.09 (61)
    57. South Ridge - 46.08 (100)
    58. Hill City - 46.04 (83)
    59. Northome/Kelliher - 45.59 (105)
    60. Blackduck - 44.92 (117)
    61. Hillcrest Lutheran Academy - 44.26 (96)
    62. Littlefork-Big Falls - 44.23 (55)
    63. Buffalo Lake-Hector-Stewart - 44.04 (21)
    64. Minnesota Valley Lutheran - 43.84 (16)
    65. Adrian - 43.8 (39)
    66. Mahnomen - 43.71 (17)
    67. Chisholm - 43.49 (130)
    68. Community of Peace Academy - 43.46 (163)
    69. Hope Academy - 43.4 (166)
    70. Le Center - 43.33 (124)
    71. CHOF - 43.23 (70)
    72. Menahga - 43.15 (74)
    73. St. Clair - 43.1 (95)
    74. Madelia - 43.02 (137)
    75. Floodwood - 42.93 (101)
    76. Four Directions Charter - 42.81 (158)
    77. Silver Bay - 42.79 (53)
    78. Ogilvie - 42.42 (87)
    79. Bethany Academy - 42.02 (34)
    80. St. Croix Prep - 41.85 (143)
    81. Legacy Christian - 41.68 (5)
    82. Mesabi East - 41.51 (10)
    83. Pine River-Backus - 41.49 (66)
    84. Red Rock Central - 41.3 (49)
    85. Mabel-Canton - 41.24 (133)
    86. McGregor - 41.17 (91)
    87. Norman County West - 41.04 (94)
    88. Minnesota Transitions Charter - 41.04 (18)
    89. Nevis - 40.46 (65)
    90. Liberty Classical Academy - 40.12 (165)
    91. Fillmore Central - 39.78 (24)
    92. Southwest Christian - 39.75 (29)
    93. Lincoln HI - 39.73 (156)
    94. Canby - 39.71 (153)
    95. Fond du Lac Ojibwe - 39.7 (75)
    96. Hills-Beaver Creek - 39.63 (57)
    97. Nashwauk-Keewatin - 39.63 (118)
    98. Blooming Prairie - 39.45 (56)
    99. PACT Charter - 39.27 (12)
    100. North Lakes Academy - 39.19 (161)
    101. Glenville-Emmons - 39.18 (155)
    102. Swanville - 39.09 (4)
    103. Warren-Alvarado-Oslo - 38.97 (84)
    104. Badger/Greenbush-Middle River - 38.86 (82)
    105. Norman County East - 38.57 (46)
    106. Hancock - 38.47 (98)
    107. Waubun - 38.37 (43)
    108. Nicollet - 38.19 (150)
    109. Calvin Christian - 38.09 (160)
    110. Walker-Hackensack-Akeley - 38.07 (146)
    111. West Central Area - 37.88 (1)
    112. Wabasso - 37.83 (79)
    113. Wheaton/Herman-Norcross - 37.63 (152)
    114. Win-E-Mac - 37.32 (41)
    115. Lyle/Austin Pacelli - 37.25 (154)
    116. Cromwell - 37.15 (30)
    117. Central MN Christian - 37 (110)
    118. Carlton - 36.54 (22)
    119. Brandon/Evansville - 36.31 (104)
    120. Clinton-Graceville-Beardsley - 36.17 (159)
    121. Sleepy Eye - 36.04 (28)
    122. Lake Park-Audubon - 35.7 (63)
    123. Janesville-Waldorf-Pemberton - 35.56 (50)
    124. Parkers Prairie - 35.33 (6)
    125. Cleveland - 35.27 (147)
    126. Kerkhoven-Murdock-Sunburg - 34.97 (97)
    127. Red Lake County - 34.48 (138)
    128. Onamia - 34.17 (119)
    129. Truman - 34.13 (72)
    130. Climax/Fisher - 33.74 (64)
    131. Mountain Iron-Buhl - 33.19 (32)
    132. Verndale - 32.78 (107)
    133. Underwood - 32.44 (144)
    134. Sebeka - 31.76 (37)
    135. Northeast Range - 31.47 (111)
    136. Cherry - 31.11 (27)
    137. Park Christian - 30.5 (149)
    138. Schaeffer Academy - 30.32 (116)
    139. Martin Luther - 30.11 (108)
    140. Grand Meadow - 29.78 (145)
    141. Hope Lutheran - 29.42 (129)
    142. Minneota - 29.32 (139)
    143. Westbrook-Walnut Grove - 28.82 (15)
    144. Clearbrook-Gonvick - 28.7 (92)
    145. Nova Classical Academy - 28.64 (157)
    146. Lakeview - 26.86 (141)
    147. Math & Science Academy - 26.06 (14)
    148. E.C.H.O. Charter - 25.82 (164)
    149. Randolph - 25.77 (59)
    150. Edgerton - 25.62 (38)
    151. MN Academy for the Deaf - 24.82 (162)
    152. East Central - 24.67 (78)
    153. Wrenshall - 24.6 (25)
    154. Rothsay - 22.61 (23)
    155. Round Lake-Brewster - 18.68 (109)
    156. New York Mills - 17.43 (42)
    157. Renville County West - 15.99 (106)
    158. Northland - 14.3 (73)
    159. Mesabi Academy - 0 (125)
    160. Laporte - 0 (134)
    161. Lake of the Woods - 0 (121)
    162. Alden-Conger - 0 (127)
    163. Bug-O-Nay-Ge-Shig - 0 (167)
    164. Learning for Leadership - 0 (2)
    165. LeRoy-Ostrander - 0 (151)
    166. Sacred Heart - 0 (54)
    167. St. Paul Prep - 0 (26)

    7 comments:

    1. This is very interesting. I like the strength of schedules you show. That makes some good sense!

      ReplyDelete
    2. So just looking through my homer eyes and brain, I am puzzled at drop in stature of Eagan (12-10, CzarPI #36, QRF #23) using CzarPI versus QRF and the positioning of Lakeville South (10-12, CzarPI #35, QRF #33) and Henry Sibley (12-10, CzarPI #30, QRF #31). Or for that matter, Prior Lake (12-10, CzarPI #27, QRF #22). It seems Eagan's strength of schedule and wins over Lakeville South and Prior Lake with similar tough schedules and a Prior Lake win over Sibley (an opponent's opponent) would at least put Eagan somewhere in the 20's near or even ahead of Prior Lake. It could just be a data error OR just more proof as to why we still need humans in the mix. (By the way- does your system make julienne fries?)

      ReplyDelete
    3. I love that CzarPI kind of rhymes with RPI, but I think not accounting for class of opponents is a major glitch. Keeping on the homer track, and being a 3A guy, my key exhibits are Austin (QRF #5, #14 CzarPI) and Mankato East (#6/#11) vs. Kasson-Mantorville (#27 QRF/#6 CzarPI). K-M has only played two 3A teams, neither with winning records, with the rest being 2A teams. Austin and East have played a mix of 3A and 4A. Yet their strength of schedule ranks are 59 and 41, while K-M has SOS of 31. K-M has a nice team, but there's no way their schedule has been tougher.

      ReplyDelete
    4. Marty, the CzarPI unfortunately doesn't make Julienne Fries or Walking Tacos (huge flaw). For Eagan's schedule, out of 12 wins, only 2 of those are above top 30 teams (#18 STMA and #27 Prior Lake), 6 are against 47 or below. The schedule is tough (shown as 6th), but in the CzarPI you have to win those games to get any credit.

      Noting that the CzarPI doesn't account for class, Sibley has wins over Richfield and Hill-Murray (top 30 in AAA), PEM (top 20 in AA) and as win over #8 Minnetonka. Very logical that they would be ahead.

      Lakeville South makes up ground because of wins over Hill-Murray, Johnson and New Prague (all top 30 in AAA)

      ReplyDelete
    5. Lee, as I say on the CzarPI described page, I agree class is relevant but trying to say that its equal across all situations to me isn't right. Therefore it has no place in a computer formula. While you have beaten Mankato East twice, losses to Owatonna and Washburn hurt you in terms of getting big points. Most of the rest of the big 9 isn't having a good year and you still have points out there with Century and Owatonna. Losing at Northfield and huge losses to Windom and Maple River are telling for K-M. Run the table and I'd give you the top seed.

      ReplyDelete
    6. It will be interesting to compare your final CzarPI with the final QRF and also the section seeding for those sections that don't seed by QRF...and also to who actually wins the sections. Hopefully I'll get to spend a few days in Minneapolis late next month and we'll get to talk about it then.

      One thought: if you're not going to account for class, and since you rank according to class, shouldn't you only look at games within the class? That seems like the way to really make it a valid computer formula if you're not going to adjust for class. Does RPI count games against Division II opponents? I don't know for sure, but I seem to remember it doesn't.

      Again, appreciate all you do in covering boys hoops in MN. We just need to get the southern provinces formally annexed into The Kingdom.

      ReplyDelete
    7. If it were minimal cases then you could eliminate those. But how do you quantify class? Blake playing metro AA schools is different than K-M playing outstate AA teams

      ReplyDelete

    Have a different take than mine? You can provide your take here.