2012 Gotta Make Shots Part 1

Long time readers will recall that in the fall of 2009 and again in 2010 I wrote posts analyzing shooting as a factor in winning at the state tournament.  For those who didn't see those articles or want a refresher, check out the links below to see the details. 

The Original Gotta Make Shots Article (explanation)
Gotta Make Shots 2010 Series

Those posts explain the Hubie Brown theory of a bad team needing more shots to win.  I then concluded that it really boils down to shooting percentage.  So in this 1st part of a 5 part series, I take a look back at some more historical data to see if the theories still hold up.  We'll start with a look back at the class A state tournament games.  Then we'll progress through classes AA, AAA and AAAA.  Then in the final installment of the series, we'll tally it all up and add some extra data.

2012 Class A State Tournament
  • Lakeview Christian Academy vs Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa
    LCA with 2 extra shots in the game.  They shoot 38.1% compared to 52.5% for BBE.  They overcomes a 12-5 advantage in 3s for LCA.  BBE forces 21 turnovers for a 23-16 advantage in points off turnovers.
  • Mountain Lake-Butterfield-Odin vs Browerville
    Browerville with 14 more shots, but only 35.3% shooting.  That included 29% in the second half when MLBO pulled away.  MLBO 46.4% for the game
  • SW MN Christian vs Fosston
    Fosston with 15 more shots but another state tourney early exit thanks to 29.3% shooting.  SW MN Christian shoots over 50% in each half for 51.2% overall.
  • Prairie Seeds Academy vs Rushford-Peterson
    PSA with 16 more shots in the game but again that's no help.  The Lycans shoot 44.3% for the game and give up 54.5% on the other end in the 2nd half.  Rushford-Peterson ends up at 44.4%.  A huge 26-5 advantage at the foul line and 26-13 on points off turnovers keeps PSA from moving on.
  • BBE vs MLBO (Semifinal #1)
    BBE gets 11 more shots in the 2nd half as MLBO can't buy a bucket.  MLBO 9.1% shooting in the 2nd half (not a typo, they were 2-22).  They hold BBE to 25.9 in that half but too big a margin to overcome.  BBE also with a 28-3 advantage on points off turnovers (23-9 total turnover advantage).  13-3 in made free throws also went to BBE.  Jags roll 56-36.
  • SW MN Christian vs Rushford-Peterson (Semifinal #2)\
    SW MN Christian with 9 more attempts and they lose the FG% battle 39.5% to 31.9%.  SW MN Christian overcomes all of that by winning the turnover battle 14-9 and with a 12-7 win on the offensive glass.
  • MLBO vs Rushford-Peterson (Third Place)
    Rushford-Peterson rolls with 15 extra shot attempts.  23-11 advantage in points off turnovers and a 22-9 advantage in 2nd chance points.  Rushford-Peterson shot 49.1% to 47.5% for MLBO.  Huge factor was a 15-4 advantage in made 3s for Rushford-Peterson.  32 of their 55 attempts were from the great beyond.
  • BBE vs SW MN Christian (Championship)
    SW MN Christian with 6 extra attempts.  They shot 34.6% while BBE shot 39.1%.  SW MN Christan 3-20 from the 3 point line.  18.5% shooting for SW MN Christian in the 2nd half to lose a 4 point halftime lead.  BBE 17-6 advantage in made free throws.  BBE 22-8 in points off turnovers (23-18 advantage in turnovers).
The team with more shots had a record of 3-5.  The team with the higher shooting percentage had a record of  7-1.  The 1 loss being in the game where SW MN Christian made up the difference with turnovers and free throws.

2011 Class A State Tournament
  • Goodhue vs Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa
    Goodhue had 4 more shots in the 70-54 loss.  They shot 35.7% for the game compared to 40.4% for BBE.  Huge advantage for BBE at the line 27-8.   They also held a 22-7 advantage in 2nd chance points thanks to a 22-8 advantage on the offensive glass.  Goodhue won the turnover battle 25-19 but lost the points off of turnovers 22-18.
  • MACCRAY vs Maranatha
    MCA with 12 more shots but they lost 61-52.  MACCRAY shoots 47.8% compared to 37.9% for the Mustangs.  MACCRAY also with a 10 point advantage in made free throws.
  • Chisholm vs Fosston
    This game saw the teams dead even in field goal attempts.  Chisholm only shoots 40.4% but they hold Fosston to 25.5%.  The Bluestreaks forced 19 Fosston turnovers for a 15-4 advantage in points.
  • Springfield vs Upsala
    Upsala with 13 more shot attempts but they shoot only 33.3%  for the game.  They forced 23 Springfield turnovers compared to 19 of their own but Springfield was +6 in points off turnovers.  Springfield was very efficient on offense as they shot 50% in each half. 
  • BBE vs MACCRAY (Semifinal #1)
    MACCRAY with 4 more shots.  BBE shoots 55.4% for the game compared to 41.7% for MACCRAY.  That included 38.5% in the 2nd half.    BBE took 23 turnovers and turned them into a 36-15 advantage. 
  • Chisholm vs Springfield (Semifinal #2)
    The Bluestreaks get off 6 more shots than Springfield.  Chisholm held to 32.7% while Springfield wasn't much better at 36.7%. (26.7% in the 2nd half).  Springfield makes 6 extra free throws in the OT to put it away.
  • MACCRAY vs Chisholm (Third Place)
    MACCRAY with a couple of extra shots.  They shoot 45.3% on those and hold Chisholm to 37.3%. (24% in the 2nd half).  That allows MACCRAY to pull away.\
  • BBE vs Springfield (Championship)
    BBE gets up 80 shots compared to 59 for Springfield.  They shoot only 33.8% on those shots but hold Springfield to 37.3%.  BBE with a 26-14 advantage on the offensive glass for a 26-12 advantage in pionts.  Springfield would recover with a 17-8 advantage in points off turnovers.  They would have a 20-2 advantage at the foul line and held BBE to 2-27 from 3 to win 70-58.
The team with more shots lost 6 of the 7 games with a shot differential for a 1-6 record.  The team with the higher shooting percentage had a record of 8-0.

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