Jan 2, 2013 CzarPI

Its the 1st CzarPI of the 2012-2013 Season (see CzarPI Explained here).  It includes games through January 2nd, 2013  The value in () after the CzarPI value is the team's strength of schedule ranking within their class.  While most teams have at least 5 games of record, the amount of data remaining is large so major changes can still occur this early in the season.  So without further delay here is this season's 1st edition of the CzarPI.

Class AAAA
  1. Park Center - 64.07 (19)
  2. Apple Valley - 63.19 (6)
  3. Eden Prairie - 61.21 (22)
  4. Roseville - 59.23 (52)
  5. Osseo - 58.37 (16)
  6. Champlin Park - 57.52 (18)
  7. Maple Grove - 56.9 (15)
  8. Minnetonka - 56.64 (44)
  9. Woodbury - 56.43 (32)
  10. Prior Lake - 56.39 (24)
  11. Elk River - 56.34 (58)
  12. Hopkins - 55.24 (35)
  13. Moorhead - 55.19 (20)
  14. Eagan - 54.93 (45)
  15. East Ridge - 54.92 (53)
  16. Lakeville North - 54.77 (48)
  17. Chanhassen - 54.7 (31)
  18. Brainerd - 54.62 (62)
  19. Mahtomedi - 54.08 (56)
  20. St. Louis Park - 54.01 (39)
  21. Tartan - 53.13 (54)
  22. Buffalo - 53.02 (1)
  23. Stillwater Area - 52.68 (50)
  24. St. Francis - 51.77 (63)
  25. Rochester John Marshall - 51.76 (61)
  26. Henry Sibley - 50.67 (40)
  27. Owatonna - 50.28 (43)
  28. Edina - 49.91 (2)
  29. Robbinsdale Cooper - 49.65 (23)
  30. Blaine - 49.54 (26)
  31. Bloomington Kennedy - 48.96 (30)
  32. Northfield - 48.92 (49)
  33. Mounds View - 48.9 (47)
  34. Eastview - 47.96 (4)
  35. White Bear Lake - 47.96 (5)
  36. Wayzata - 47.48 (51)
  37. Bloomington Jefferson - 47.46 (13)
  38. St. Michael-Albertville - 47.18 (28)
  39. Robbinsdale Armstrong - 47.17 (38)
  40. Shakopee - 46.92 (34)
  41. Centennial - 45.55 (14)
  42. Lakeville South - 45.4 (37)
  43. Farmington - 44.68 (46)
  44. Irondale - 43.49 (36)
  45. Rosemount - 42.25 (21)
  46. Cretin-Derham Hall - 42.23 (57)
  47. Duluth East - 41.98 (7)
  48. Rochester Century - 41.19 (42)
  49. Minneapolis South - 39.47 (55)
  50. Rogers - 39.42 (33)
  51. Forest Lake - 37.94 (17)
  52. Rochester Mayo - 35.1 (8)
  53. Minneapolis Southwest - 34.86 (41)
  54. Cambridge-Isanti - 34.15 (25)
  55. Anoka - 32.97 (12)
  56. Hastings - 32.35 (59)
  57. St. Cloud Tech - 31.89 (9)
  58. Park of Cottage Grove - 31.36 (60)
  59. Burnsville - 28.01 (29)
  60. North St. Paul - 25.37 (27)
  61. Bemidji - 0 (3)
  62. Andover - 0 (10)
  63. Coon Rapids - 0 (11)
    Class AAA

    1. DeLaSalle - 65.94 (6)
    2. Hermantown - 58.8 (17)
    3. Marshall - 58.31 (28)
    4. Waconia - 57.41 (11)
    5. Austin - 56.92 (53)
    6. Grand Rapids - 55.64 (34)
    7. New Prague - 55.02 (4)
    8. Delano - 54.81 (62)
    9. Richfield - 53.89 (27)
    10. Blake - 53.74 (30)
    11. Little Falls - 52.5 (37)
    12. Thief River Falls - 51.96 (36)
    13. St. Paul Highland Park - 51.05 (42)
    14. St. Paul Central - 51.02 (49)
    15. Simley - 50.76 (48)
    16. Fergus Falls - 50.74 (14)
    17. Mound-Westonka - 50.09 (33)
    18. Red Wing - 49.69 (26)
    19. Holy Family Catholic - 49.16 (40)
    20. Sartell-St. Stephen - 48.82 (1)
    21. Holy Angels - 48.73 (15)
    22. Columbia Heights - 48.42 (54)
    23. Albert Lea - 47.1 (29)
    24. Mankato West - 46.96 (16)
    25. Orono - 46.61 (21)
    26. Spring Lake Park - 45.99 (57)
    27. Alexandria - 45.88 (39)
    28. Waseca - 45.37 (56)
    29. Big Lake - 45.09 (31)
    30. Detroit Lakes - 44.26 (10)
    31. Hutchinson - 44.2 (32)
    32. St. Paul Johnson - 44 (19)
    33. Chaska - 43.95 (13)
    34. Willmar - 43.92 (52)
    35. Minneapolis Henry - 43.65 (51)
    36. Kasson-Mantorville - 42.75 (5)
    37. Minneapolis Washburn - 42.55 (44)
    38. Rocori - 42.49 (63)
    39. Hill-Murray - 42.34 (38)
    40. Fridley - 42.1 (64)
    41. St. Anthony Village - 41.64 (58)
    42. Zimmerman - 41.36 (45)
    43. Cloquet - 41.17 (41)
    44. St. Cloud Apollo - 40.56 (47)
    45. Monticello - 40.24 (9)
    46. Chisago Lakes Area - 39 (60)
    47. St. Paul Harding - 38.39 (55)
    48. Benilde-St. Margaret's - 37.75 (7)
    49. Totino-Grace - 37.38 (18)
    50. Winona - 37.27 (43)
    51. East Grand Forks - 37.08 (61)
    52. Faribault - 36.06 (23)
    53. Hibbing - 35.11 (46)
    54. Becker - 33.74 (3)
    55. Minneapolis Roosevelt - 33.08 (35)
    56. St. Paul Como Park - 32.95 (20)
    57. Mankato East - 29.17 (8)
    58. South St. Paul - 28.58 (65)
    59. North Branch - 27.16 (22)
    60. New Ulm - 24.59 (50)
    61. St. Thomas Academy - 0 (2)
    62. Duluth Denfeld - 0 (12)
    63. Princeton - 0 (24)
    64. Sauk Rapids-Rice - 0 (25)
    65. Dassel-Cokato - 0 (59)
    Class AA
    1. Litchfield - 60.08 (2)
    2. St. Cloud Cathedral - 59.68 (19)
    3. Mora - 59.58 (31)
    4. Hawley - 58.43 (79)
    5. Norwood-Young America - 58.07 (73)
    6. Melrose - 58.04 (41)
    7. Maple River - 57.86 (32)
    8. Redwood Valley - 57.22 (46)
    9. Morris Area/Chokio-Alberta - 57.19 (22)
    10. Crosby-Ironton - 56.99 (68)
    11. Worthington - 56.75 (9)
    12. Moose Lake-Willow River - 56.01 (21)
    13. Annandale - 55.68 (34)
    14. Luverne - 55.35 (52)
    15. Hayfield - 54.54 (71)
    16. Pelican Rapids - 54.36 (72)
    17. Providence Academy - 53.99 (107)
    18. Byron - 53.88 (111)
    19. Brooklyn Center - 53.49 (14)
    20. Fairmont - 53.43 (42)
    21. Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted - 53.33 (37)
    22. Braham - 53.26 (51)
    23. Esko - 53.04 (104)
    24. Jordan - 52.94 (106)
    25. Glencoe-Silver Lake - 52.88 (74)
    26. St. Peter - 52.86 (99)
    27. Caledonia - 52.66 (114)
    28. Perham - 52.59 (10)
    29. International Falls - 52.22 (12)
    30. Crookston - 51.54 (38)
    31. Martin County West - 51.39 (94)
    32. Staples-Motley - 51.37 (53)
    33. Jackson County Central - 51.32 (16)
    34. Kimball Area - 51.2 (59)
    35. Winona Cotter - 50.24 (98)
    36. New Life Academy - 49.94 (57)
    37. Lake City - 49.93 (123)
    38. Plainview-Elgin-Millville - 49.88 (87)
    39. St. Croix Lutheran - 49.59 (63)
    40. Eveleth-Gilbert - 49.16 (97)
    41. Southland - 48.56 (109)
    42. Minnehaha Academy - 48.44 (86)
    43. Zumbrota-Mazeppa - 48.33 (82)
    44. Eden Valley-Watkins - 48.28 (84)
    45. Pierz - 48.21 (44)
    46. Windom Area - 48.2 (23)
    47. Mayer Lutheran - 47.82 (3)
    48. St. Charles - 47.71 (69)
    49. Maple Lake - 47.5 (39)
    50. Rochester Lourdes - 47.47 (81)
    51. Albany - 47.38 (6)
    52. Warroad - 47.28 (54)
    53. New London-Spicer - 47.07 (13)
    54. United South Central - 46.99 (35)
    55. St. John's Prep - 46.28 (26)
    56. Waterville-Elysian-Morristown - 46.1 (70)
    57. Deer River - 46.09 (119)
    58. Concordia Academy-Roseville - 45.98 (88)
    59. St. Paul Humboldt - 45.63 (91)
    60. Rockford - 45.36 (4)
    61. Hinckley-Finlayson - 44.97 (75)
    62. Sibley East - 44.72 (49)
    63. Sauk Centre - 44.7 (28)
    64. Virginia - 44.61 (77)
    65. Watertown-Mayer - 44.41 (8)
    66. Lewiston-Altura - 44.07 (43)
    67. Aitkin - 43.95 (15)
    68. Pine City - 43.95 (100)
    69. Medford - 43.66 (118)
    70. Pequot Lakes - 43.44 (58)
    71. Lac qui Parle Valley - 43.44 (47)
    72. Tri-City United - 43.31 (93)
    73. Great River - 42.34 (127)
    74. Foley - 42.34 (11)
    75. International School of MN - 42.28 (126)
    76. Breck - 42.19 (124)
    77. Long Prairie-Grey Eagle - 42.16 (105)
    78. Barnesville - 42.14 (36)
    79. Holdingford - 41.16 (18)
    80. Bagley - 41.04 (96)
    81. Montevideo - 40.51 (116)
    82. La Crescent - 40.48 (83)
    83. Chatfield - 40.02 (89)
    84. Kingsland - 39.93 (24)
    85. Pipestone Area - 39.88 (20)
    86. Stewartville - 39.87 (30)
    87. Rush City - 39.64 (90)
    88. BOLD - 39.52 (95)
    89. Belle Plaine - 39.39 (117)
    90. Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop - 39.21 (64)
    91. Kenyon-Wanamingo - 39.09 (115)
    92. Minneapolis Edison - 38.9 (61)
    93. Breckenridge - 38.59 (25)
    94. Milaca - 38.57 (78)
    95. Lake Crystal-Wellcome Memorial - 38.31 (103)
    96. Minnewaska Area - 38.23 (7)
    97. Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton - 37.71 (1)
    98. Cannon Falls - 37.57 (40)
    99. Blue Earth Area - 37.53 (110)
    100. Wadena-Deer Creek - 37.03 (121)
    101. Frazee - 36.57 (50)
    102. Benson - 36.31 (67)
    103. Proctor - 36.24 (112)
    104. Tracy-Milroy-Balaton - 36.18 (48)
    105. Park Rapids Area - 35.22 (76)
    106. St. Agnes - 35.09 (85)
    107. Greenway - 34.5 (60)
    108. Trinity School - 34.46 (102)
    109. Triton - 33.71 (29)
    110. LeSueur-Henderson - 33.71 (66)
    111. Dover-Eyota - 32.56 (62)
    112. New Richland-H-E-G - 32.5 (80)
    113. Pine Island - 32.49 (56)
    114. Wabasha-Kellogg - 32.03 (33)
    115. Two Harbors - 31.45 (17)
    116. Roseau - 30.9 (92)
    117. Mounds Park Academy - 29.55 (113)
    118. St. Paul Academy - 29.55 (120)
    119. Spectrum - 28.43 (45)
    120. Cristo Rey Jesuit - 26.59 (125)
    121. St. James Area - 24.38 (101)
    122. St. Paul Washington - 24.01 (108)
    123. Osakis - 0 (5)
    124. Paynesville Area - 0 (27)
    125. Duluth Marshall - 0 (55)
    126. Yellow Medicine East - 0 (65)
    127. Hmong Academy - 0 (122)
    Class A
    1. Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa - 62.99 (9)
    2. Upsala - 60.8 (30)
    3. Heritage Christian - 59.32 (53)
    4. Southwest MN Christian - 58.46 (13)
    5. Win-E-Mac - 57.63 (45)
    6. Browerville - 55.42 (40)
    7. Ulen-Hitterdal - 54.79 (115)
    8. Cedar Mountain/Comfrey - 54.73 (5)
    9. Dawson-Boyd - 54.55 (68)
    10. Northern Freeze - 54.54 (86)
    11. Sleepy Eye Saint Mary's - 54.2 (38)
    12. Maranatha Christian - 53.82 (125)
    13. Floodwood - 53.51 (84)
    14. Bigfork - 53.43 (25)
    15. Ashby - 52.95 (133)
    16. Wheaton/Herman-Norcross - 52.88 (10)
    17. Walker-Hackensack-Akeley - 52.48 (98)
    18. Fertile-Beltrami - 52.32 (15)
    19. Ely - 52.21 (110)
    20. West Lutheran - 52.19 (64)
    21. Henning - 51.53 (99)
    22. Rushford-Peterson - 51.51 (101)
    23. Atwater-Cosmos-Grove City - 51 (49)
    24. Russell-Tyler-Ruthton - 50.93 (146)
    25. Lester Prairie/Holy Trinity - 50.65 (34)
    26. Barnum - 50.07 (128)
    27. Park Christian - 50.04 (91)
    28. Swanville - 49.53 (81)
    29. MACCRAY - 49.11 (113)
    30. Ortonville - 48.75 (82)
    31. Blackduck - 48.75 (90)
    32. Canby - 48.42 (73)
    33. Cook County - 48.37 (56)
    34. Bethlehem Academy - 48.26 (94)
    35. West Central Area - 48.14 (57)
    36. Lakeview Christian - 48.11 (27)
    37. Lanesboro - 47.26 (153)
    38. Hills-Beaver Creek - 47.1 (4)
    39. Isle - 46.78 (152)
    40. Mountain Lake Area - 46.55 (114)
    41. Red Lake - 46.34 (41)
    42. Pillager - 46.23 (48)
    43. Mountain Iron-Buhl - 46.17 (14)
    44. Edgerton - 46.13 (160)
    45. Ada-Borup - 45.97 (109)
    46. Bethany Academy - 45.78 (136)
    47. Springfield - 45.69 (107)
    48. Fosston - 45.47 (89)
    49. Verndale - 45.38 (75)
    50. Battle Lake - 44.62 (127)
    51. Warren-Alvarado-Oslo - 44.57 (100)
    52. Buffalo Lake-Hector-Stewart - 44.42 (139)
    53. St. Croix Prep - 43.3 (92)
    54. Mahnomen - 43.29 (122)
    55. St. Clair - 43.27 (131)
    56. South Ridge - 43.03 (65)
    57. Westbrook-Walnut Grove - 42.69 (17)
    58. Nevis - 42.57 (106)
    59. Wrenshall - 42.33 (77)
    60. Wabasso - 42.05 (130)
    61. Cherry - 41.91 (129)
    62. Red Rock Central - 41.83 (44)
    63. North Woods - 41.72 (33)
    64. Mankato Loyola - 41.68 (83)
    65. Grand Meadow - 41.57 (117)
    66. Badger/Greenbush-Middle River - 41.4 (119)
    67. Littlefork-Big Falls - 41.26 (32)
    68. Northome/Kelliher - 41.21 (111)
    69. Spring Grove - 40.91 (120)
    70. Northland - 40.84 (66)
    71. Goodridge/Grygla - 40.84 (123)
    72. Ellsworth - 40.65 (18)
    73. New Ulm Cathedral - 40.63 (35)
    74. Blooming Prairie - 40.51 (58)
    75. Goodhue - 40.41 (60)
    76. Hill City - 40.39 (59)
    77. Legacy Christian - 40.34 (47)
    78. PACT Charter - 40.23 (105)
    79. MetroTech Career Academy - 39.78 (61)
    80. Janesville-Waldorf-Pemberton - 38.86 (148)
    81. North Lakes Academy - 38.65 (145)
    82. Central MN Christian - 38.51 (12)
    83. Cromwell - 38.23 (93)
    84. Stephen-Argyle - 38.09 (149)
    85. Southwest Christian - 38.08 (2)
    86. Schaeffer Academy - 37.9 (147)
    87. Fond du Lac Ojibwe - 37.85 (134)
    88. Nashwauk-Keewatin - 37.82 (70)
    89. Hillcrest Lutheran Academy - 37.29 (52)
    90. Fulda - 37.08 (87)
    91. Minneapolis North - 36.83 (74)
    92. Truman/Martin Luther - 36.82 (102)
    93. Cass Lake-Bena - 36.81 (11)
    94. Chisholm - 36.81 (88)
    95. Carlton - 36.55 (95)
    96. Southwest United - 36.48 (78)
    97. Mesabi Academy - 36.43 (132)
    98. Onamia - 36.42 (141)
    99. Lincoln HI - 36.2 (29)
    100. Sleepy Eye - 36.2 (140)
    101. New York Mills - 35.92 (8)
    102. Minneota - 35.55 (80)
    103. Kittson County Central - 35.54 (72)
    104. Murray County Central - 35.45 (121)
    105. Lyle/Austin Pacelli - 35.44 (154)
    106. Rothsay - 34.53 (37)
    107. Lakeview - 34.45 (104)
    108. Parkers Prairie - 34 (21)
    109. Cleveland - 33.91 (103)
    110. Royalton - 33.65 (96)
    111. CHOF - 33.53 (28)
    112. Red Lake County - 33.51 (151)
    113. Menahga - 33.45 (112)
    114. Fillmore Central - 32.56 (118)
    115. Randolph - 31.18 (138)
    116. Underwood - 30.36 (19)
    117. Brandon/Evansville - 30.11 (42)
    118. Hope Lutheran - 29.84 (155)
    119. Clinton-Graceville-Beardsley - 29.71 (157)
    120. Community of Peace Academy - 29.45 (159)
    121. MN Academy for the Deaf - 28.32 (156)
    122. Calvin Christian - 28.32 (158)
    123. Norman County East - 27.49 (50)
    124. Eagle Valley - 25.88 (23)
    125. Mesabi East - 24.75 (63)
    126. Granada-Huntley-East Chain - 24.38 (71)
    127. Madelia - 23.89 (144)
    128. Mabel-Canton - 23.11 (135)
    129. Nicollet - 0 (1)
    130. Adrian - 0 (3)
    131. Silver Bay - 0 (6)
    132. Kerkhoven-Murdock-Sunburg - 0 (7)
    133. Minnesota Valley Lutheran - 0 (16)
    134. Pine River-Backus - 0 (20)
    135. Waubun - 0 (22)
    136. Laporte - 0 (24)
    137. Hancock - 0 (26)
    138. Renville County West - 0 (31)
    139. Lake Park-Audubon - 0 (36)
    140. McGregor - 0 (39)
    141. Ogilvie - 0 (43)
    142. Sebeka - 0 (46)
    143. FAIR School - 0 (51)
    144. Lake of the Woods - 0 (54)
    145. Bug-O-Nay-Ge-Shig - 0 (55)
    146. Northeast Range - 0 (62)
    147. Climax/Fisher - 0 (67)
    148. Minnesota Transitions Charter - 0 (69)
    149. Houston - 0 (76)
    150. Glenville-Emmons - 0 (79)
    151. Clearbrook-Gonvick - 0 (85)
    152. East Central - 0 (97)
    153. Norman County West - 0 (108)
    154. Bertha-Hewitt - 0 (116)
    155. Sacred Heart - 0 (124)
    156. Nova Classical Academy - 0 (126)
    157. E.C.H.O. Charter - 0 (137)
    158. Liberty Classical Academy - 0 (142)
    159. Alden-Conger - 0 (143)
    160. LeRoy-Ostrander - 0 (150)

    3 comments:

    1. First, thanks Kevin for all you do in covering high school basketball in Minnesota. I always enjoy reading your game recaps. What you do here and at Northstar Hoops Report is fantastic.

      I don't think anyone would quibble with DeLaSalle as defending champs with loads of returning talent being ranked #1 in AAA, except I can't figure out how your formula could produce that result with only one game against MSHSL competition. Their only MN game is a win over Brooklyn Center (6-2) and you have DeLaSalle with SOS of 6. How does the math work on that?

      The bigger issue I see with CzarPI remains its lack of class differential. For example, Kasson-Mantorville is 2-6 and has a CzarPI of 42.75 and a Class AAA rank of 36. Its two wins were against AA schools with a combined record of 8-7. Kasson is 0-3 against 1AAA schools.

      Winona is 3-4 in MSHSL play and has beaten two teams from the Old Kingdom (wins that don't count), for a CzarPI of 37.27 and rank of 50. Winona's three MSHSL wins have come against AAA teams with a combined record of 5-21. So given the poor record of the teams Winona has beaten, I can see how your formula as you have constructed it would give you the results it has.

      But Winona is 2-2 against 1AAA opponents, including a 91-32 win over...Kasson-Mantorville.

      If you don't think you can come up with a reasonable class differential because a metro AA private school that draws from a big population base can't compare with one in a small rural community, I think you would be better off having the CzarPI based solely on intraclass games.

      That's what RPI does for NCAA: D1 games against non-D1 teams don't count. I think it would be more meaningful to only use games within class in your calculations. Factoring in the opponents' opponents' opponents' records makes sense if you limit it to the class, because those are the teams that could actually face each other in March.

      Again, thanks for all you do for Minnesota basketball. Will you be in La Crosse on the 19th?

      ReplyDelete
    2. Very well written, very valid points, Coach Braziel.

      ReplyDelete
    3. Lee, I put very little stock in the DLS number because it is 1 game. They were 1 of only 15 teams out of 415 that had less than 5 games count in the calculation. You and I will agree to disagree on class differential. That's one of my big issues with the QRF. That's why I say evaluate that separately with the number. I should blow up the entire calculation because of the rare team that plays a schedule not within in its class? I did consider going by in-class games only, but then you wouldn't have nearly the sample size for KM that you would for everybody else in the section. So neither using a differential or going to a same class model makes sense. Remember schedule strength isn't just who you've played. Its who your opponents have played and beaten and who those opponents opponents have played and beaten.

      My D1 is MSHSL tournament teams, non D1 teams are the teams not playing in the tournament. Remember too than any computer system gets better as the season goes on as the amount of data increases signficantly. The more data, the better the calculation.

      ReplyDelete

    Have a different take than mine? You can provide your take here.