A statistical look at the Kevin Noreen Scoring Record

So with all the insults and concerns flying around about Kevin Noreen breaking the all-time scoring record, I decided to look at the actual data and see if the numbers point anything out.

Since I could only find information for Cody Schilling from his sophomore year on, we'll start there and look at the last 3 years of their careers (obviously Noreen's senior year will only be to date).  At the start of his sophomore year Cody had scored 731 points, he scored 2697 of his career points (78.7%) in his last 3 years.  Kevin Noreen started his sophomore year with 935 points and has scored 2494 since (72.4%).  Since the numbers below include team records and QRF, I only include Minnesota teams.  That removes 15 Schilling games from Iowa and South Dakota.  It removes 3 Wisconsin and 1 Canadian game from Noreen's books.  Also note that QRF numbers for this season for Noreen are lower because the season is not yet complete and the numbers accumulate per game played.

In the last 3 seasons of their careers through today, the games break down as follows.

Cody Schilling: 71 Class A games, 5 AA games, 6 AAA games, 1 AAAA game for 83 Minnesota games
Kevin Noreen: 54 Class A games, 14 AA games, 4 AAA games, 3 AAAA games for 75 Minnesota games.

Those opponents break down as follows. 

Cody Schilling
The average class A opponent had a record of 14.4-11.6 with a QRF of 87.8 which places at 62.46
  • 28.61 PPG in 28 games vs opponents in the top 40 of class A (roughly top 25%)
  • 26.91 PPG in 11 games vs opponents in the bottom 50 of class A (roughly bottom 25%)
  • 28.44 PPG in 47 games vs opponents in the top 80 of class A (roughly top half)
  • 26.75 PPG in 24 games vs opponents in the bottom 90 of class A (roughly bottom half) 
  • 28.6 PPG in 5 games vs Class AA.  Those teams had an average record of 10.8-14.4, QRF of 70.78 and places of  81.8
    • 24.5 PPG in 6 games vs Class AAA.  Those teams had an average record of 14.2-12, QRF of 83.3 and places of 27.2
    • 20 points in 1 career game vs #5 QRF, 24-5 Rochester Mayo from Class AAAA
    Kevin Noreen
    The average class A opponent had a record of 14.7-9.8 with a QRF of 83.7 which places at 64.1.  Note: For 2 games vs Math and Science and Dunwoody in 2008-2009, there was no QRF so I assigned a QRF of 20 which was a rank of 165.  The Dunwoody game in 2007-2008 is not included as there is no record or QRF information available for them.

    • 27.55 PPG in 22 games vs opponents in the top 40 of class A (roughly top 25%)
    • 41 PPG in 9 games vs opponents in the bottom 50 of class A (roughly bottom 25%)
    • 28.2 PPG in 35 games vs opponents in the top 80 of class A (roughly top half)
    • 38.42 PPG in 19 games vs opponents in the bottom 90 of class A (roughly bottom half)
    • 28.5 PPG in 14 games vs Class AA. Those teams had an average record of 12.2-10.5, QRF of 78.98 and place of 47.2.
    • 34.25 PPG in 4 games vs Class AAA.  Those teams had an average record of 12.25-9, QRF of 64.48 and place of 28.5
    • 26.7 PPG in 3 games vs Class AAAA.  Those teams had an average record of 9.3-10, QRF of 64.63 and place of 25.7
    Conclusions
    Based on the above data, I draw these conclusions.

    Did Noreen have huge games against bad teams?  Absolutely as that is the number that jumps out.  Good players will have big games against bad teams so the numbers shouldn't be alarming.  Star players dominate weaker opponents.  Do Schilling's lower totals vs that same competition mean anything?  No because he was also an outstanding passer.  As somebody who has watched MTS multiple times do they keep him all game and press just to run it up.  No way.  That said, there are games where I would have pulled him sooner.  But running it up is just too harsh a term to use.  I thought what coach Jihad did with Tayler Hill over at South was worse when pursuing the girls record.

    Those games vs bad competition (defined as bottom 50 of class A) only make up about 11% of the schedule and Cody Schilling played just as many of those games.  The totals vs top 40 and bottom 50 class A teams will even out between them once Noreen plays his tournament games this year (he'll get a bad game, maybe 2 in the opening rounds and then top 40 games for most of the rest.).  To say that Noreen ran up huge numbers against a bad schedule and Schilling didn't just isn't supported by the data.  I think any objective look at the Class A schedules has to say they're pretty equal.

    As to the higher class, its no contest.  Noreen will double the games that Schilling played against a higher class and he's clearly been more productive in those games and the competition is at least as good (note how AA is superior).  If this season is any indication, Noreen is averaging 30.7 points in 10 games against teams from a higher class.  Schilling averaged 25.3 in 6 games against a higher class as a senior.  In fairness to Schilling, due to conference games and being in the middle of nowhere, Ellsworth couldn't schedule the kind of non-conference games that MTS has the ability to being a metro team that's not in a league.  At the same time, its also difficult to fill 26 games when you don't have a league since most teams have league play all January and February.

    Bottom Line
    Both are outstanding players with great careers and earned the records.  They both handled the hype and hysteria with great class and dignity.  I just wish everyone else would do the same.

    15 comments:

    1. I think Noreen is an excellent player that will thrive in the right system at the next level. Boston College is probably a very good fit for him, Minnesota would not be. That being said, I think MTS should move up in class, a steady diet of 2A competition would fit better with their talent level. Of course I have a bit of bias here...

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    2. Did you eat a Walking Taco while doing this research?

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    3. Czar,

      I've read your blog off and on for the past two years. You will be critical of some systems every once in a while but for the most part just report on what you see at the games. What's your deal with Noreen and MTS?

      You are all over the place criticizing people for having difficulty with Noreen's scoring record and you are losing some credibility due to your insistance we all must recognize his record as some form of galatical achievement.

      Quite frankly, I could care less who owns the scoring record, some kid from a small town I've never heard of or some kid from a school you have to walk through Radio Shack to get to.

      I know you spent time with the Pump and Run program and probably got to know the kid and like him etc which is fine but trying to justify this record for the rest of us is a bit much.

      Just curious as to why such an emotional response.

      Thanks Czar.

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    4. Pimp, my issue is the double standard and the cheap shots that are flying around. Cody Schilling was a media darling. NOBODY had any issues when he broke the record. Kevin Noreen plays the same basic schedule and because of the hatred MTS and Kevin's dad, we don't give him credit for the record and don't give him the same credit when he breaks the record that Cody got? I don't feel that's fair to Kevin. Look at all the Star Tribune headlines and the timing of them, nothing but negative and agenda based, but I haven't written about that. Couldn't the exposé of MTS wait? What does getting DeAngelo Potter in this year have to do with Kevin setting the record? All I'm saying is give him the same respect for doing it as Schilling/Dahlman etc. No more, no less. Would a ton of other players who didn't play at MTS have broken the record, absolutely. The record doesn't mean you're the best player in state history. I've been critical of MTS here with how much zone they play and how I don't like how Jerry Noreen conducts himself on the bench and I said in the piece that I would have pulled Noreen out of some of those games before Sherman did. I also thought that the Cash Eggleston and Ellsworth state title game incidents were worth the criticism they got. Let's be adult enough to separate the MTS and Jerry Noreen issues from the accomplishment itself. Here's a great kid who should be celebrating a great career accomplishment, yet there's nothing but negativity. That bothers me more than anything and why I've given it some extra coverage here and come to his defense out on the StarTrib and elsewhere. I'm curious what you think I defended that wasn't defendable and what your perpective is on the whole thing. For the most part the only person I went after was that flamethrower siddddd.

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    5. Thanks for the response. First off, I've met the kid once and he seems a good kid so from my perspective what the kid accomplishes is fantastic. I watched him play this summer and he clearly can play at the highest levels of Mn basketball. Should he be Mr. Basketball? I'd say he'd have my vote because of his ability.

      I firmly believe the kid would average 20-25 in any program at any level but he'd be a better overall player playing elsewhere as I see his defense as a liability at the next level right now.

      I believe you've lost some objectivity on the issue with some of your own posts on your blog about how you don't want to hear about MTS' schedule etc. Scheduling the years prior was not nearly as competetive as this year which is a solid schedule.

      I really see this more as an inner city/outstate issue as much as anything. Is there a lot of depth at MTS? No. Kid takes a lot of shots because he has to. He could probably pass more but to whom? His brother okay.

      I'm all about adovacting for Mn basketball players, that being said I'm not an apologist for their shortcomings. I hope Noreen is successful at BC and represents Mn basketball well and opens some other doors. I'm not sure he needs to be defended so much though by anyone.

      But I'll give you a great amount of credit for putting that analysis together.

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    6. Pimp, I'll agree that the schedules before last year (soph on down) were weak, but he put up more points in less games against a tougher schedule last year and is on pace to do the same this year. The facts just don't back up the idea that he ran it up against a bunch of 1-armed nobodies and it sickens me that there are still a bunch of people out there who continually imply that and I'm frankly tired of Noreen's games being questioned and no questions for Schilling or anybody else. The personal attacks have been sickening too.

      I agree with your assessment that his defense at the next level is a concern. Not sure playing anywhere in high school would fix that.

      How to classify charter schools, private schools and those schools when they're in the metro vs outstate is definitely a difficult issue. Not just here in MN but the WIAA is having trouble dealing with it too.

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    7. MTS 144 - International School??? 97.

      Noreen 51 pts.

      What is an International School?

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    8. OK I don't expect folks to know all the smaller teams in Class A. Google is your friend as well as Minnesota scores and other local resources for people who want to be knowledgeable about local basketball.That is a charter school as well, one of the smaller ones.

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    9. QOB,

      To me the International School is just another school that should not field a MSHSL basketball team. Charter schools in general should have their own classification and play against themselves. If they want to compete against "traditional" high schools then they should move up a class.

      I also believe Noreen's record should have an "*" attached to it. The reason for the asterik is because of games like this. Spending any time reseaching the International school and its place in local basketball is a waste of time.

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    10. That feels like an elitist attitude. For example, my school, CHOF is very small, I think we are at about 35 kids in the top three grades this year. We've sent several teams to the state tourney over the years, won the girls a couple times and placed second with the boys. We are not a charter school but a small private school. Is there a place for us in your ideal MSHSL?

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    11. Elitist? Absolutely not. As I attended private school my entire life, I know from where I speak. Charter schools have their own designation completely separate from private schools.

      I grew up in NY where state championships were separated into public and private school championships.

      In Mn we have four classes already. Give Charter schools their own tournament and designation.

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    12. OK, that makes sense to me, it would curb abuse of the system as well

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    13. Czar, Just curious if Noreen and Schilling played the same amount of games that were halves instead of quarters? That would have some affect on the scoring record along obviously with Dahlman. I would also like to say that I played against many of the schools that Schilling played and now coach in the MCAA and see many of the teams Noreen plays, it does not compare. Noreen plays much lower competition,and has traditionally put up HUGE numbers against poor competition when up BIG. I take nothing away from his skill set, but his pops is the one to blame for the negativity, not the media.

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    14. jnthnldbr, thanks for the perspective. Nice to hear from somebody who can intelligently talk to both sides. Do you think its fair to attack the record just because of his dad?

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    15. I definately do not think it's fair to "attack" the record and attack the kid, however, with records there comes scrutiny, and rightly so with this one. Nothing against the kid, but I understand why all the fuss.

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    Have a different take than mine? You can provide your take here.