Metro section previews Part 1 (4A, 4AA)

My previews of the metro area sections, we'll start with section 4A and 4AA.

Section 4A:
Schedule
  • Play-in: Monday 3/10 at High Seeds, 7 PM
  • Subsection Quarters: Tuesday 3/11 at High Seeds, 7 PM
  • Subsection Semis: Thursday 3/13 at High Seeds, 7 PM
  • Subsection Finals: Saturday 3/15 at Spring Lake Park (West 1 PM, East 3 PM)
  • Section Final: Tuesday 3/18 at Holy Angels, 6 PM
Top 4 Seeds
West: Maranatha, SW Christian, PACT and Heritage
East: Minnesota Transitions, CHOF, St. Agnes, New Life Academy

In the east, throw away the 1st 2 days and go straight to the subsection semis. CHOF vs St. Agnes should be a very good 2 vs 3 game in a matchup of athletic teams. CHOF won at St. Agnes 95-85 on Dec 11th. MTS had to cancel their game vs NLA (NLA overscheduled, that's the 3rd instance of that this season alone I've heard of) but they're matched up with them in the semis.

In the west, it's more interesting. The West Lutheran vs Heritage game in the 4 v 5 matchup should be very interesting as Heritage won 2 close regular season matchups (5 pts at Heritage, 6 pts at MCA in the MCAA tournament). The old adage that its hard to beat a team 3 times holds true here. Heritage is dangerous with Stu Herman and John Hirte, especially if they get a fast pace but MCA is a bad matchup in round 2. PACT has solid PG play from Seth Mathis, a couple of solid wings in Joel Hedberg and David Wilkey-Johnson and 6'7 Matt Fridberg in the middle. Depth could be a problem for them though. SW Christian lurks as the 2 seed with Caleb Palkert. They lost by 16 at CHOF Dec 13 and by 7 at MTS on Jan 26 but they lost to MCA by 2 at home on Jan 17th before taking them out 45-42 to win the MCAA tournament on Feb 22nd. Watch for a possible SW Christian vs PACT matchup on Thursday. PACT took out SW Christian at PACT in OT in the season opener 67-59.

Predictions (for entertainment purposes only):
  • Play-in games: Not posted on the state high school league site, but one that appears is available is Ascension at Spectrum and I'll take Ascension.
  • Quarters: MCA, Heritage, PACT and SW Christian in the West. MTS, NLA, SA and CHOF in the East.
  • Semis: MCA and PACT (MCA won at PACT 60-45 March 3rd), MTS and CHOF (MTS won 77-72 at CHOF Jan 15th)
  • Finals: MCA and CHOF
  • Section Champion: CHOF due to experience and MCA demonstrating they have a tough time on the road and their youth.
Section 4AA:
Schedule
  • Subsection Quarters: Tuesday 3/11 at High Seeds, 7 PM
  • Subsection Semis: Thursday 3/13 at High Seeds, 7 PM
  • Subsection Finals: Saturday 3/15 at Holy Angels (East 1 PM, West 3 PM)
  • Section Final: Tuesday 3/18 at Holy Angels, 8 PM
Top 3 Seeds
West: Holy Family, Breck and Edison
East: St. Bernard's, Concordia and Minnehaha

The east is really tough with the top 2 Tri-Metro East teams and the West runner up. Minnehaha played Concordia and SB tough and Concordia and SB split their regular season matchups with road wins. The St. Croix Lutheran at Roosevelt 4 v 5 game will be good. SCL can win that game, but not without Chris Breuer who wasn't in the box score in last night's loss to St. Anthony. The bottom 3 teams don't pose a threat.

The west is bad. Holy Family is a respectable 1 seed, but Breck isn't the same team they were before the coaching change, Edison lost 7 of 9 down the stretch (with 1 of those wins being against a really bad SW team), BC finished 3-12 with none of those good wins. Blake, Trinity and Providence at the bottom are amongst the worst teams in AA. Jordan is hot right now winning 4 in a row including a 2 OT upset of CHOF last night and a win at BC on March 3rd.

Predictions (for entertainment purposes only):
  • Quarters: HF, Jordan, Edison, and Breck. SB, Roosevelt regardless of Breuer status, Minnehaha, Concordia
  • Semis: HF, Breck (despite a 58-49 loss to Edison Dec 14th), SB, Minnehaha in a classic
  • Finals: SB (in another good game) and HF
  • Section Champion: St. Bernard's. They've only lost on a 3 late in OT and on a buzzer beater tip over Christmas to a top 5 D3 Wisconsin team so I can't pick against them.

1 comment:

  1. CHOF played Jordan to an 2 OT loss on Friday night. We've been playing Jordan the finalgame of the year for 3 or 4 years now and it's always a rough tough game. This was a tourament level game and I have to say that if Jordan upsets some folks, I wouldn't be surprised. The main problem they will have is when they get away from their cozy confines and all that entails. I am frankly glad we lost that one, the lads were starting to get a little too high on themselves and a reality check is always good _before_ the one and out tourney. While I appreciate your pick of us, I am not going to second it. I can never pick winners in the tourney, there are too many variables and luck and coaching is as important as talent.

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